Welcome

Over the past few years I have created a straightforward way to rank college football teams. Basically, I wanted a way to combine subjective views towards teams with an objective component. I have tinkered with my formula over the seasons and have what I think is a pretty decent way to compare resumes of different teams. This is NOT a sophisticated algorithm, and should not be treated the same way as Sagarin, KenPom, or other computer rankings found in places like the Massey Ranking Composite. The rankings should also not be used to predict future games; my rankings should be considered a snapshot of how a team’s body of work has been up to this point. Even though it is not the most complicated ranking system ever created, I think its simplicity can be a positive thing.


Basic Idea

I will not go into detail here about how these rankings are calculated, but I will describe the basic concept. Like I mentioned above, these rankings combine subjective and objective features. The subjective component drives the whole process. Every team is placed by me into a bin. There are seven general bins, ranging from -3 to 3. A basic idea of what each bin represents is:


If a team seems to be somewhere in between two of these categories, they can be binned as a “0.5”, “1.5”, etc. For example, Washington I would argue is not quite elite yet, but seems to be close enough where a 2.5 bin is warranted.

This is the subjective part of the process. I make the final call which bin a team falls into, but I try to inform myself as much as possible of the consensus of a given team. For example, for a team to be “borderline ranked” (bin 1), they need to at least appear in the “Other Receiving Votes” area of the AP and Coaches polls. I try to make the bins representative of the nationwide media consensus of a given team. Still, there is definitely subjectivity involved.

The objective element of the rankings gives and takes away points from a team depending on the bins of that team’s opponents. For example, beating a team from bin 0 at home by a “non-blowout score” (less than 22 points) rewards that team 0.5 points, and so on. This is the part of the process that I have tinkered with over the years. A team of course loses points for losing a game, depending on the opponent, where the game was played, and whether it was a blowout or not.

So the basic idea of the system is that we have an idea as fans which “bin” a team falls into. Once we determine that, we can get an obective idea of how a team’s resume is depending on the bins of that team’s wins and losses. The final “Score” of the ranking is simply a sum of the bin you are in and the amount of points you have gained/lost from wins and losses. For example, Oklahoma is tied for 5th in my rankings with 5 points. They are in bin 3, and received 2 points for beating Ohio State on the road by a non-blowout score (OSU is currently in bin 2). None of their other wins were good enough to warrant any points. Therefore, Oklahoma’s score is 3 + 2 = 5.


Week 4: Some Head-Scratchers at the Top?

Last week I discussed some potential issues to my method and highlighted some puzzling results in last week’s rankings. Well, I should have waited one week to do that, because this week has some much stranger outcomes in the top 10. As you look at the rankings, two obvious results should catch your attention. The first is quite troubling… Alabama at 5th?!?! The Tide destroyed poor Vanderbilt by 59 points and they go down? What stupid rankings system would do that?

Let’s think it through for a few minutes. First of all, as I’ve said many times, this approach finds the best resumes, not necessarily the best teams. Alabama would be favored against anyone in the country if they played right now, but is their collection of wins the best in the country? These rankings say no, and I think I agree. What is Alabama’s best win? Sure, they obliterated Vanderbilt, but is Vanderbilt better than Ohio State, Louisville, Auburn, Stanford (maybe), Oklahoma State, Mississippi State, Notre Dame? All the teams ahead of Alabama here have beaten at least one of those teams, if not several of them. What really hurt Alabama in this week’s rankings was Florida State. Bama scored tons of “perception points” across the country by beating the Seminoles, but the win simply isn’t all that great in the wake of FSU’s loss this past weekend. In a lot of ways, this is the type of thing my system tries to address: the perception is that Alabama has a big win over a top 3 team, even though that team still has not won a game this year.

Georgia and TCU are the two teams ahead of Alabama that are particularly interesting. For the record, the “subjective” part of this process, the bins, has TCU and Georgia in bin 2.5, behind Alabama (and Clemson, OSU, USC, and Oklahoma) who is in bin 3. However, the collection of wins that the Horned Frogs and Bulldogs have outweighs the “bin” difference. TCU snagged a huge road win over OK State this past weekend, and already has a win at Arkansas. Those are two nice road wins, and they are rewarded accordingly. Georgia also has a fantastic duo of wins. UGA’s road win over Notre Dame is already paying dividends, as ND has looked great in every game other than its loss to Georgia. And then this past Saturday, UGA destroyed a hot Mississippi State team 31-3. If you were blindly given Alabama’s, UGA’s, and TCU’s resumes, wouldn’t TCU’s and Georgia’s collection of wins be objectively more impressive at this point? Perhaps Florida State improves to help Bama down the road, but right now Alabama’s body of work is a tad behind some of the others at the top. Still, I wouldn’t want to play em!

The other top-10 headscratcher is San Diego State, who rose all of the way up to 10th (!!) in my rankings after this week. How does a team go from 16th to 10th simply by beating Air Force? The answer, suprisingly, stems from Arizona State. In an overlooked Week 2 game, San Diego State defeated ASU 30-20 in Tempe, scoring the Aztecs a nice Pac-12 road win. At the time, my system didn’t give San Diego State much of a reward for that, since Arizona State came into the season with underwhelming expectations. However, in another overlooked game late this past Saturday, the Sun Devils took down a ranked Oregon team. This improved ASU’s “bin” to 0, which boosted San Diego State’s total points. This is a good example of how every game can indirectly impact various aspects of the rankings across the country. Do I think San Diego State will stay in the top 10 all year? Perhaps not, since they don’t have many opportunities for big victories down the road. Still, a win at Arizona State and against Stanford is quite a nice resume for a Mountain West team at this point.

Hopefully that puts a little of context around the “head-scratchers” of the week. I’m sure there are various other confusing results throughout the rankings, but most of them are probably a result of similar phenomena as those described here. Here are the Week 4 rankings. Like always, I have some write-ups for each conference later on. I now also have plots for all conferences/divisions, not just the Power 5 conferences. Good luck making any sense of the nasty Sun Belt plot though!

Rank Team Score Record Conf Prev Rank Rem Sched Rank
1 Clemson 7 4-0 (2-0) 1 57
2 Georgia 5.75 4-0 (1-0) 6 49
3 TCU 5.5 4-0 (1-0) T9 53
4 USC 5.25 4-0 (2-0) 4 49
T5 Alabama 5 4-0 (1-0) 3 57
T5 Oklahoma 5 4-0 (1-0) 2 29
7 Michigan 4.75 4-0 (1-0) 8 15
8 Penn State 4.25 4-0 (1-0) 7 42
9 Washington 3.5 4-0 (1-0) 13 42
10 San Diego St 3.25 4-0 (1-0) 16 111
11 Virginia Tech 3 4-0 (0-0) T9 29
12 Ohio State 3 3-1 (1-0) 11 42
13 Florida 2.75 2-1 (2-0) 24 61
14 Wisconsin 2.5 3-0 (0-0) T14 53
T15 Louisville 2.5 3-1 (1-1) 20 65
T15 OK State 2.5 3-1 (0-1) 5 53
17 Duke 2.5 4-0 (1-0) T26 40
T18 Miami 2.25 2-0 (0-0) 18 35
T18 Washington St 2.25 4-0 (1-0) T14 6
20 Notre Dame 2.25 3-1 (0-0) 37 28
21 S Florida 2 4-0 (1-0) 23 78
22 Auburn 2 3-1 (1-0) 17 18
23 Mississippi St 2 3-1 (1-1) 12 57
24 Utah 1.5 4-0 (1-0) T29 3
25 Memphis 1.5 3-0 (0-0) 25 84
26 Texas Tech 1.5 3-0 (0-0) T35 18
27 NC State 1 3-1 (1-0) T55 35
T28 Wake Forest 1 4-0 (1-0) T33 2
T28 UCF 1 2-0 (0-0) T48 79
30 Stanford 0.75 2-2 (1-1) 45 15
31 California 0.75 3-1 (0-1) 31 42
32 West Virginia 0.5 3-1 (1-0) 32 6
33 Iowa 0.5 3-1 (0-1) T33 42
34 Vanderbilt 0.25 3-1 (0-1) 22 57
T35 Minnesota 0 3-0 (0-0) T38 40
T35 Navy 0 3-0 (1-0) T48 67
37 Indiana 0 2-1 (0-1) T50 18
38 LSU -0.25 3-1 (0-1) 41 18
T39 Tennessee -0.25 3-1 (0-1) T42 35
T39 Kentucky -0.25 3-1 (1-1) T26 52
41 Florida State -0.5 0-2 (0-1) 19 18
42 Colorado -0.75 3-1 (0-1) T29 29
43 Purdue -0.75 2-2 (0-1) T42 64
44 Kansas State -1 2-1 (0-0) 44 18
T45 South Carolina -1 3-1 (1-1) 54 29
T45 Texas AM -1 3-1 (1-0) T55 10
T47 Oregon -1.25 3-1 (0-1) 28 29
T47 Georgia Tech -1.25 2-1 (1-0) T55 1
49 SMU -1.25 3-1 (0-0) T59 69
T50 Virginia -1.5 3-1 (0-0) T74 18
T50 Michigan State -1.5 2-1 (0-0) T38 10
T50 Maryland -1.5 2-1 (0-0) 21 3
T50 Northwestern -1.5 2-1 (0-0) 63 35
54 Toledo -1.5 3-1 (0-0) T35 98
55 UTSA -1.5 3-0 (0-0) T61 124
56 Arkansas -1.75 1-2 (0-1) T50 61
T57 Arizona St -2 2-2 (1-0) 82 18
T57 Texas -2 1-2 (0-0) 58 15
59 Ole Miss -2 2-1 (0-0) 64 18
60 Illinois -2 2-1 (0-0) 67 49
61 UCLA -2.25 2-2 (0-1) T46 10
62 Houston -2.25 2-1 (0-0) T38 67
63 Iowa State -2.5 2-1 (0-0) 68 10
T64 Colorado St -2.5 2-2 (0-0) 66 98
T64 W Michigan -2.5 2-2 (0-0) 70 106
T64 Air Force -2.5 1-2 (0-1) T59 93
67 Marshall -2.5 2-1 (0-0) T76 123
68 App State -2.75 2-2 (1-0) 52 130
69 Troy -2.75 3-1 (1-0) 69 118
70 Boise State -3 2-2 (1-0) T46 79
71 Pittsburgh -3 1-3 (0-1) 53 42
72 Tulane -3 2-2 (0-0) 81 69
T73 Ohio -3.5 3-1 (1-0) T83 121
T73 N Illinois -3.5 2-1 (0-0) T83 91
T73 Southern Miss -3.5 2-1 (0-0) T79 127
76 Cincinnati -3.5 2-2 (0-1) T71 74
77 Fresno St -3.5 1-2 (0-0) 86 87
78 Syracuse -4.25 2-2 (0-0) 78 5
79 E Michigan -4.25 2-1 (0-1) T61 87
80 Arizona -4.5 2-2 (0-1) T74 35
81 Temple -4.5 2-2 (0-1) T79 75
82 FIU -4.5 1-1 (1-0) 96 106
83 Nebraska -4.75 2-2 (1-0) 89 10
84 BYU -4.75 1-3 (0-0) 97 111
85 Army -4.75 2-2 (0-0) T71 82
86 North Carolina -5 1-3 (0-2) 87 42
87 Louisiana Tech -5 2-2 (1-0) T76 124
88 Utah State -5 2-2 (1-0) 100 79
89 Boston College -5.5 1-3 (0-2) 106 53
T90 Wyoming -5.5 2-2 (1-0) T98 98
T90 Mid Tennessee -5.5 2-2 (0-0) T98 129
T92 Hawaii -5.75 2-2 (0-1) T83 87
T92 Arkansas St -5.75 1-2 (0-0) 73 124
T94 Buffalo -5.75 2-2 (0-0) T107 108
T94 Old Dominion -5.75 2-2 (0-0) 90 121
T94 UL Monroe -5.75 1-2 (1-0) T107 87
T97 N Texas -6 2-2 (1-0) 109 111
T97 N Mexico St -6 2-2 (0-1) 112 93
99 W Kentucky -6.25 2-2 (0-1) 111 111
100 Rutgers -6.25 1-3 (0-1) 93 6
101 Ball State -6.25 2-2 (0-0) 88 84
102 Kent State -6.25 1-3 (0-0) 102 98
103 Miami OH -6.5 2-2 (1-0) 115 93
104 UNLV -6.5 1-2 (0-0) 104 98
105 Georgia St -6.5 1-2 (0-0) 117 108
106 Tulsa -6.75 1-3 (0-1) 65 66
107 New Mexico -6.75 2-2 (0-1) 116 73
108 Akron -6.75 1-3 (0-0) 95 98
T109 Missouri -7 1-3 (0-2) 103 63
T109 Oregon State -7 1-3 (0-1) 120 18
111 C Michigan -7 2-2 (0-1) 91 84
112 Idaho -7.5 2-2 (1-0) 123 108
113 FAU -7.5 1-3 (0-0) 101 111
114 S Alabama -7.75 1-3 (0-1) 92 118
115 Uconn -7.75 1-2 (0-1) 94 75
116 E Carolina -8 1-3 (1-0) 124 69
117 UAB -8 2-2 (0-1) 105 91
118 Baylor -8.75 0-4 (0-1) 126 29
119 Kansas -9.25 1-3 (0-1) 122 6
120 GA Southern -9.5 0-3 (0-0) 121 127
121 Rice -9.75 1-3 (1-1) T113 93
122 UL Lafayette -10 1-3 (0-1) 119 98
123 Texas St -10 1-3 (0-1) T113 118
124 Co Carolina -10 1-2 (0-0) 110 111
125 San Jose St -10.25 1-4 (0-1) 118 82
126 Nevada -11.25 0-4 (0-0) 127 75
127 Bowling Green -12.25 0-4 (0-0) 128 93
128 UTEP -12.25 0-4 (0-1) 125 98
129 Charlotte -14.5 0-4 (0-0) 129 111
130 Umass -15.75 0-5 (0-0) 130 69


Interesting Plot of the Week

Now that I have plots for every division, I am moving the ACC Coastal plot down to the divisions section. Instead, I will now showcase the plots for an interesting collection of teams every week. This week I want to highlight four teams that seem to have moved up and down throughouth the season perhaps more than anyone else. I’ll start with the Virginia Cavaliers, who won an impressive “Bronco vs. Broncos” matchup at Boise State last Friday. This jumped UVA from tied for 74th up to tied for 50th, a nice jump for UVA and the ACC. I also wanted to showcase two more ACC that played one another this past week, Florida State and NC State. FSU fell pretty heavily with the loss, and NC State has jumped up the rankings after their first week loss to South Carolina. Something tells me that at the end of the year, we are going to look back at SC beating NC State as one of the stranger results of the year.

Finally, I’m throwing Notre Dame into the plot. ND fell pretty hard after losing at home to Georgia, but has climbed back up quickly into the top 25. The rapid recovery is due to UGA looking better and better from week to week, ND improving from bin 0 to 1, and the Irish picking up a nice road win over Michigan State this past weekend.

Conference Ranks: ACC New Second Place

The conference rankings look pretty similar this week, with the SEC still in 1st and a close cluster of Power 5 conferences behind it. The ACC has taken a small lead into second place. The biggest result for the conference this week was probably UVA’s win at Boise, helping the conference’s depth. In fact, behind Missouri’s implosion in the SEC, the ACC now has the “best worst team” of any conference. Congrats to Boston College for that honor! Oh, and the Sun Belt is once again the last-ranked conference. It was fun while it lasted, Sun Belt.

Rank Conf Avg
1 SEC 0.3036
2 ACC -0.125
3 Big 10 -0.2321
4 Pac 12 -0.3125
5 Big 12 -0.85
6 Amer -2.7083
7 MW -4.9375
8 MAC -5.5
9 Ind -5.75
10 CUSA -6.6071
11 S Belt -7.0208


Next are the rankings within every conference, as well as each team’s national ranking:

ACC: Seminole Letdown

Out of 76 teams in the Power 5 conferences plus the AAC, there are only two teams that are completely winless. One of them is Baylor, who… yeah, they’ve been bad. The other is Florida State University. If you had told me that at the beginning of the year, I would have thrown my drink in your face. Yes, FSU has only played two games due to a hurricane, and yes, many teams in the country would lose to both Alabama and NC State. But still, this start coupled with Deondre Francois’s injury is about as bad a start to the year as FSU could have.

As a result, there’s been an annoying-war-chant-sized hole at the top of the ACC. Who can fill it? Obviously Clemson looks like a title contender, but the fight for 2nd is still ongoing. We’ll learn a lot about VT this weekend when they host Clemson (get HYPED), and Miami has looked good in the small amount of games they’ve had. Louisville and NC State are certainly threats as well, and I guess we shouldn’t be too dismissive of FSU just yet.

Wanna get crazy? How about Duke and Wake Forest? Both team are 4-0 so far, and Duke has risen to 17th in my rankings (they are 27th in the AP Poll). The last time Duke and Wake have both started 4-0 in the same season was… literally never! We are witnessing history. Both are intriguing.

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 Clemson 7 4-0 (2-0) 13 1
2 Virginia Tech 3 4-0 (0-0) 6 11
3 Louisville 2.5 3-1 (1-1) 14 T15
4 Duke 2.5 4-0 (1-0) 9 17
5 Miami 2.25 2-0 (0-0) 7 T18
6 NC State 1 3-1 (1-0) 7 27
7 Wake Forest 1 4-0 (1-0) 2 T28
8 Florida State -0.5 0-2 (0-1) 4 41
9 Georgia Tech -1.25 2-1 (1-0) 1 T47
10 Virginia -1.5 3-1 (0-0) 4 T50
11 Pittsburgh -3 1-3 (0-1) 10 71
12 Syracuse -4.25 2-2 (0-0) 3 78
13 North Carolina -5 1-3 (0-2) 10 86
14 Boston College -5.5 1-3 (0-2) 12 89


Big 10: Michigan vs. Penn State vs. Ohio State vs. Wisconsin

The Big 10 probably has the best collection of four teams in the country. All four teams - OSU, PSU, UM, and Wisconsin - are in the AP top 10 and the top 14 of my rankings. It’s going to be a great fight between those four to see who wins the conference. However, there is quite a huge dropoff after those four. Who’s the 5th best team? We thought maybe Maryland heading into last week, but the Terps were obliterated at home by UCF, so that won’t work. Michigan State? Didn’t look great in their loss to ND Saturday. Nebraska? No. Northwestern? Lost to Duke by 24. Maybe PJ Fleck will do some good things at Monnesota, but I’ll go with Indiana or Iowa. Iowa of course looked solid in their oh-so-close loss to Penn State Saturday. They are 5th in my rankings (33rd nationally). Still, they were losing to Iowa State by 10 late and have some issues on offense. Put me down as a believer of Indiana. Their one loss is (at home) to Ohio State, but I think they have a shot to pull off a big upset this year. All in all, the Big 10 has an elite group of teams, although the conference is a bit top-heavy.

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 Michigan 4.75 4-0 (1-0) 5 7
2 Penn State 4.25 4-0 (1-0) 9 8
3 Ohio State 3 3-1 (1-0) 9 12
4 Wisconsin 2.5 3-0 (0-0) 13 14
5 Iowa 0.5 3-1 (0-1) 9 33
6 Minnesota 0 3-0 (0-0) 8 T35
7 Indiana 0 2-1 (0-1) 6 37
8 Purdue -0.75 2-2 (0-1) 14 43
T9 Michigan State -1.5 2-1 (0-0) 3 T50
T9 Maryland -1.5 2-1 (0-0) 1 T50
T9 Northwestern -1.5 2-1 (0-0) 7 T50
12 Illinois -2 2-1 (0-0) 12 60
13 Nebraska -4.75 2-2 (1-0) 3 83
14 Rutgers -6.25 1-3 (0-1) 2 100


SEC: Two Undefeated Teams Left

There are five ACC teams still winless. Four in the Big 10. Three in the Big 12. The Pac 12 has four. How about the SEC, the king of college football? Only two, Alabama and Georgia. Those two have completely distinguished themselves above the rest of the conference. Just as quickly as they emerged, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky were all humbled in various embarassing fashions this past Saturday. Those results, combined with meh starts from Auburn, LSU, Florida, Tennessee, and Texas AM, have led to an interesting start down south.

And Vanderbilt, what happened? Nick Saban happened. He eats dreams:

image

image

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 Georgia 5.75 4-0 (1-0) 7 2
2 Alabama 5 4-0 (1-0) 9 T5
3 Florida 2.75 2-1 (2-0) 12 13
4 Auburn 2 3-1 (1-0) 2 22
5 Mississippi St 2 3-1 (1-1) 9 23
6 Vanderbilt 0.25 3-1 (0-1) 9 34
7 LSU -0.25 3-1 (0-1) 2 38
T8 Tennessee -0.25 3-1 (0-1) 6 T39
T8 Kentucky -0.25 3-1 (1-1) 8 T39
T10 South Carolina -1 3-1 (1-1) 5 T45
T10 Texas AM -1 3-1 (1-0) 1 T45
12 Arkansas -1.75 1-2 (0-1) 12 56
13 Ole Miss -2 2-1 (0-0) 2 59
14 Missouri -7 1-3 (0-2) 14 T109


Big 12: TCU Emerges

Gary Patterson has coached TCU for 16 full seasons entering this year. Of those 16, he has ended with a non-winning record four separate times. One of those seasons was last year, when TCU finished 6-7. In the three prior times Patterson didn’t have a winning season, the following year TCU won at least 10 games. The most recent occurence of this was in 2014, when TCU reacted to a 6-7 year by going 12-1 with Trevone Boykin and almost making the first ever College Football Playoff. TCU simply does not stay down as a program, and Patterson is putting together one of those bounceback seasons again this year.

Don’t sleep on Texas Tech. Their defense has been jokingly bad the past few years, but has shown signs of improvement this season. They have two solid wins, one versus Arizona State and the other at Houston this past Saturday. As one of only three remaining undefeated Big 12 teams, they may be a school to reckon with.

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 TCU 5.5 4-0 (1-0) 9 3
2 Oklahoma 5 4-0 (1-0) 7 T5
3 OK State 2.5 3-1 (0-1) 9 T15
4 Texas Tech 1.5 3-0 (0-0) 5 26
5 West Virginia 0.5 3-1 (1-0) 1 32
6 Kansas State -1 2-1 (0-0) 5 44
7 Texas -2 1-2 (0-0) 4 T57
8 Iowa State -2.5 2-1 (0-0) 3 63
9 Baylor -8.75 0-4 (0-1) 7 118
10 Kansas -9.25 1-3 (0-1) 1 119


Pac 12: Washington Going Under the Radar

One of the teams not getting too much coverage in the top 10 right now is Washington. Their nonconference schedule was a joke, but they started their Pac 12 slate last weekend with a great, convincing win at Colorado. Washington was really, really good last year, and got back a good chunk of that team, most notably their QB Jake Browning. Their schedule has been light, but they’ve looked like a solid bet to be a contender again this season. They also avoid USC in the regular season this year, so that’s huge too. With Stanford scuffling a bit, their outlook is nice.

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 USC 5.25 4-0 (2-0) 12 4
2 Washington 3.5 4-0 (1-0) 10 9
3 Washington St 2.25 4-0 (1-0) 2 T18
4 Utah 1.5 4-0 (1-0) 1 24
5 Stanford 0.75 2-2 (1-1) 4 30
6 California 0.75 3-1 (0-1) 10 31
7 Colorado -0.75 3-1 (0-1) 7 42
8 Oregon -1.25 3-1 (0-1) 7 T47
9 Arizona St -2 2-2 (1-0) 5 T57
10 UCLA -2.25 2-2 (0-1) 3 61
11 Arizona -4.5 2-2 (0-1) 9 80
12 Oregon State -7 1-3 (0-1) 5 T109


American: Central Florida Steals the Show

There were a lot of fireworks in the American in Week 3, headlined by Memphis beating UCLA. This week, things were just so-so for the conference, with Houston losing at home to Texas Tech and Tulsa dropping to New Mexico. However, a new contender emerged onto the scene: Central Florida. Just two seasons ago, UCF went 0-12. New coach Scott Frost improved the team to 6-7 last year, and looks to build upon that after throttling Maryland on the road 38-10 Saturday. This was just the second game for UCF due to Hurricane Irma, but their season is off to a great start. It’ll get even better if they can beat Memphis this weekend.

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 S Florida 2 4-0 (1-0) 10 21
2 Memphis 1.5 3-0 (0-0) 12 25
3 UCF 1 2-0 (0-0) 11 T28
4 Navy 0 3-0 (1-0) 2 T35
5 SMU -1.25 3-1 (0-0) 4 49
6 Houston -2.25 2-1 (0-0) 2 62
7 Tulane -3 2-2 (0-0) 4 72
8 Cincinnati -3.5 2-2 (0-1) 7 76
9 Temple -4.5 2-2 (0-1) 8 81
10 Tulsa -6.75 1-3 (0-1) 1 106
11 Uconn -7.75 1-2 (0-1) 8 115
12 E Carolina -8 1-3 (1-0) 4 116


Mountain West: San Diego State and No One Else

I’ve talked about the Aztecs a lot on this page over the past few weeks, and justifiably so. However, the rest of the Mountain West has been pretty mediocre. This all starts with Boise State, who dropped a home game to Virginia in convincing fashion. This season is shaping up to be the first year since 2001 in which Boise State is never ranked at any point of the season.

The rest of the contenders? Pretty disappointing. Wyoming has looked really bad in losses to Power 5 opponents Iowa and Oregon. New Mexico lost to rival New Mexico State. My rankings like the starts of Colorado State and Air Force. Air Force in particular has looked impressive in its losses. It kept it close with Michigan in Week 3, and last week it almost pulled off the upset against San Diego State. Look for the Falcons to be a consistent force in conference play. Still, the Aztecs could, and maybe should, run the table.

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 San Diego St 3.25 4-0 (1-0) 12 10
T2 Colorado St -2.5 2-2 (0-0) 9 T64
T2 Air Force -2.5 1-2 (0-1) 8 T64
4 Boise State -3 2-2 (1-0) 3 70
5 Fresno St -3.5 1-2 (0-0) 6 77
6 Utah State -5 2-2 (1-0) 3 88
7 Wyoming -5.5 2-2 (1-0) 9 T90
8 Hawaii -5.75 2-2 (0-1) 6 T92
9 UNLV -6.5 1-2 (0-0) 9 104
10 New Mexico -6.75 2-2 (0-1) 1 107
11 San Jose St -10.25 1-4 (0-1) 5 125
12 Nevada -11.25 0-4 (0-0) 2 126


MAC: Toledo and Northern Illinois Come Through

After Toledo and Eastern Michigan lost on Saturday, the MAC joins the Sun Belt as one of only two conferences with no undefeated teams (the Sun Belt only has one team with under two losses).

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 Toledo -1.5 3-1 (0-0) 7 54
2 W Michigan -2.5 2-2 (0-0) 10 T64
T3 Ohio -3.5 3-1 (1-0) 12 T73
T3 N Illinois -3.5 2-1 (0-0) 4 T73
5 E Michigan -4.25 2-1 (0-1) 3 79
6 Buffalo -5.75 2-2 (0-0) 11 T94
7 Ball State -6.25 2-2 (0-0) 1 101
8 Kent State -6.25 1-3 (0-0) 7 102
9 Miami OH -6.5 2-2 (1-0) 5 103
10 Akron -6.75 1-3 (0-0) 7 108
11 C Michigan -7 2-2 (0-1) 1 111
12 Bowling Green -12.25 0-4 (0-0) 5 127


Conference USA: La Tech So Close

Okay CUSA, I’ll finally remove the 3rd and 93 video from your section. Louisiana Tech, the team who lost 87 yards in that video, actually came really close to pulling out an upset over South Carolina on Saturday. They were up 13-0 heading into the 4th quarter before the Gamecocks’s offense woke up to win 17-16. Between that near-upset and LT’s road win at Western Kentucky last week, the Bulldogs may be the favorite in the conference at this point.

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 UTSA -1.5 3-0 (0-0) 11 55
2 Marshall -2.5 2-1 (0-0) 10 67
3 Southern Miss -3.5 2-1 (0-0) 13 T73
4 FIU -4.5 1-1 (1-0) 4 82
5 Louisiana Tech -5 2-2 (1-0) 11 87
6 Mid Tennessee -5.5 2-2 (0-0) 14 T90
7 Old Dominion -5.75 2-2 (0-0) 9 T94
8 N Texas -6 2-2 (1-0) 5 T97
9 W Kentucky -6.25 2-2 (0-1) 5 99
10 FAU -7.5 1-3 (0-0) 5 113
11 UAB -8 2-2 (0-1) 1 117
12 Rice -9.75 1-3 (1-1) 2 121
13 UTEP -12.25 0-4 (0-1) 3 128
14 Charlotte -14.5 0-4 (0-0) 5 129


Sun Belt

The Sun Belt looks like a race between App State, Troy, and Arkansas State. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. Good luck getting any valuable information from the Sun Belt graph below, it’s a total mess.

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 App State -2.75 2-2 (1-0) 12 68
2 Troy -2.75 3-1 (1-0) 7 69
3 Arkansas St -5.75 1-2 (0-0) 10 T92
4 UL Monroe -5.75 1-2 (1-0) 1 T94
5 N Mexico St -6 2-2 (0-1) 2 T97
6 Georgia St -6.5 1-2 (0-0) 4 105
7 Idaho -7.5 2-2 (1-0) 4 112
8 S Alabama -7.75 1-3 (0-1) 7 114
9 GA Southern -9.5 0-3 (0-0) 11 120
10 UL Lafayette -10 1-3 (0-1) 3 122
11 Texas St -10 1-3 (0-1) 7 123
12 Co Carolina -10 1-2 (0-0) 6 124


Independents

Notre Dame has recovered nicely after their home loss to Georgia. After rushing for over 500 yards against a somewhat decent Boston College defense, they picked up a nice road win at Michigan State last Saturday.

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 Notre Dame 2.25 3-1 (0-0) 1 20
2 BYU -4.75 1-3 (0-0) 4 84
3 Army -4.75 2-2 (0-0) 3 85
4 Umass -15.75 0-5 (0-0) 2 130

Bonus Video of the Week

Thanks for reading this far! Here’s a bonus video from this past Saturday. If only Maryland’s football team showed as much intensity during their 38-10 loss this weekend…


Division Ranks

For those who are even more curious, here are the same analyses but by division instead of conference. I know the plot is a little busy, but it gives a decent idea of how the divisions fall.

Rank Div Avg
1 SEC W 0.5714
2 Big 10 E 0.3929
3 ACC Atl 0.1786
4 SEC E 0.0357
5 Pac 12 N -0.1667
6 ACC Coast -0.4286
7 Pac 12 S -0.4583
8 Big 12 -0.85
9 Big 10 W -0.8571
10 Amer W -1.9583
11 Amer E -3.4583
12 MAC W -4.1667
13 MW Moun -4.2083
14 MW West -5.6667
15 Ind -5.75
16 CUSA W -6.5714
17 CUSA E -6.6429
18 MAC E -6.8333
19 S Belt -7.0208


Next are the rankings within every division, as well as each team’s national ranking (now with plots!):

ACC Coastal

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 Virginia Tech 3 4-0 (0-0) 3 11
2 Duke 2.5 4-0 (1-0) 5 17
3 Miami 2.25 2-0 (0-0) 4 T18
4 Georgia Tech -1.25 2-1 (1-0) 1 T47
5 Virginia -1.5 3-1 (0-0) 2 T50
6 Pittsburgh -3 1-3 (0-1) 6 71
7 North Carolina -5 1-3 (0-2) 6 86


ACC Atlantic

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 Clemson 7 4-0 (2-0) 6 1
2 Louisville 2.5 3-1 (1-1) 7 T15
3 NC State 1 3-1 (1-0) 4 27
4 Wake Forest 1 4-0 (1-0) 1 T28
5 Florida State -0.5 0-2 (0-1) 3 41
6 Syracuse -4.25 2-2 (0-0) 2 78
7 Boston College -5.5 1-3 (0-2) 5 89


SEC East

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 Georgia 5.75 4-0 (1-0) 3 2
2 Florida 2.75 2-1 (2-0) 6 13
3 Vanderbilt 0.25 3-1 (0-1) 5 34
T4 Tennessee -0.25 3-1 (0-1) 2 T39
T4 Kentucky -0.25 3-1 (1-1) 4 T39
6 South Carolina -1 3-1 (1-1) 1 T45
7 Missouri -7 1-3 (0-2) 7 T109


SEC West

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 Alabama 5 4-0 (1-0) 5 T5
2 Auburn 2 3-1 (1-0) 2 22
3 Mississippi St 2 3-1 (1-1) 5 23
4 LSU -0.25 3-1 (0-1) 2 38
5 Texas AM -1 3-1 (1-0) 1 T45
6 Arkansas -1.75 1-2 (0-1) 7 56
7 Ole Miss -2 2-1 (0-0) 2 59


Big 10 East

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 Michigan 4.75 4-0 (1-0) 4 7
2 Penn State 4.25 4-0 (1-0) 6 8
3 Ohio State 3 3-1 (1-0) 6 12
4 Indiana 0 2-1 (0-1) 5 37
T5 Michigan State -1.5 2-1 (0-0) 3 T50
T5 Maryland -1.5 2-1 (0-0) 1 T50
7 Rutgers -6.25 1-3 (0-1) 2 100


Big 10 West

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 Wisconsin 2.5 3-0 (0-0) 6 14
2 Iowa 0.5 3-1 (0-1) 4 33
3 Minnesota 0 3-0 (0-0) 3 T35
4 Purdue -0.75 2-2 (0-1) 7 43
5 Northwestern -1.5 2-1 (0-0) 2 T50
6 Illinois -2 2-1 (0-0) 5 60
7 Nebraska -4.75 2-2 (1-0) 1 83


Big 12

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 TCU 5.5 4-0 (1-0) 9 3
2 Oklahoma 5 4-0 (1-0) 7 T5
3 OK State 2.5 3-1 (0-1) 9 T15
4 Texas Tech 1.5 3-0 (0-0) 5 26
5 West Virginia 0.5 3-1 (1-0) 1 32
6 Kansas State -1 2-1 (0-0) 5 44
7 Texas -2 1-2 (0-0) 4 T57
8 Iowa State -2.5 2-1 (0-0) 3 63
9 Baylor -8.75 0-4 (0-1) 7 118
10 Kansas -9.25 1-3 (0-1) 1 119


Pac 12 North

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 Washington 3.5 4-0 (1-0) 5 9
2 Washington St 2.25 4-0 (1-0) 1 T18
3 Stanford 0.75 2-2 (1-1) 2 30
4 California 0.75 3-1 (0-1) 5 31
5 Oregon -1.25 3-1 (0-1) 4 T47
6 Oregon State -7 1-3 (0-1) 3 T109


Pac 12 South

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 USC 5.25 4-0 (2-0) 6 4
2 Utah 1.5 4-0 (1-0) 1 24
3 Colorado -0.75 3-1 (0-1) 4 42
4 Arizona St -2 2-2 (1-0) 3 T57
5 UCLA -2.25 2-2 (0-1) 2 61
6 Arizona -4.5 2-2 (0-1) 5 80


American East

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 S Florida 2 4-0 (1-0) 5 21
2 UCF 1 2-0 (0-0) 6 T28
3 Cincinnati -3.5 2-2 (0-1) 2 76
4 Temple -4.5 2-2 (0-1) 3 81
5 Uconn -7.75 1-2 (0-1) 3 115
6 E Carolina -8 1-3 (1-0) 1 116


American West

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 Memphis 1.5 3-0 (0-0) 6 25
2 Navy 0 3-0 (1-0) 2 T35
3 SMU -1.25 3-1 (0-0) 4 49
4 Houston -2.25 2-1 (0-0) 2 62
5 Tulane -3 2-2 (0-0) 4 72
6 Tulsa -6.75 1-3 (0-1) 1 106


MW Mountain

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
T1 Colorado St -2.5 2-2 (0-0) 5 T64
T1 Air Force -2.5 1-2 (0-1) 4 T64
3 Boise State -3 2-2 (1-0) 2 70
4 Utah State -5 2-2 (1-0) 2 88
5 Wyoming -5.5 2-2 (1-0) 5 T90
6 New Mexico -6.75 2-2 (0-1) 1 107


MW West

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 San Diego St 3.25 4-0 (1-0) 6 10
2 Fresno St -3.5 1-2 (0-0) 3 77
3 Hawaii -5.75 2-2 (0-1) 3 T92
4 UNLV -6.5 1-2 (0-0) 5 104
5 San Jose St -10.25 1-4 (0-1) 2 125
6 Nevada -11.25 0-4 (0-0) 1 126


MAC East

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 Ohio -3.5 3-1 (1-0) 6 T73
2 Buffalo -5.75 2-2 (0-0) 5 T94
3 Kent State -6.25 1-3 (0-0) 3 102
4 Miami OH -6.5 2-2 (1-0) 1 103
5 Akron -6.75 1-3 (0-0) 3 108
6 Bowling Green -12.25 0-4 (0-0) 1 127


MAC West

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 Toledo -1.5 3-1 (0-0) 5 54
2 W Michigan -2.5 2-2 (0-0) 6 T64
3 N Illinois -3.5 2-1 (0-0) 4 T73
4 E Michigan -4.25 2-1 (0-1) 3 79
5 Ball State -6.25 2-2 (0-0) 1 101
6 C Michigan -7 2-2 (0-1) 1 111


C-USA East

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 Marshall -2.5 2-1 (0-0) 6 67
2 FIU -4.5 1-1 (1-0) 1 82
3 Mid Tennessee -5.5 2-2 (0-0) 7 T90
4 Old Dominion -5.75 2-2 (0-0) 5 T94
5 W Kentucky -6.25 2-2 (0-1) 2 99
6 FAU -7.5 1-3 (0-0) 2 113
7 Charlotte -14.5 0-4 (0-0) 2 129


C-USA West

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 UTSA -1.5 3-0 (0-0) 5 55
2 Southern Miss -3.5 2-1 (0-0) 7 T73
3 Louisiana Tech -5 2-2 (1-0) 5 87
4 N Texas -6 2-2 (1-0) 4 T97
5 UAB -8 2-2 (0-1) 1 117
6 Rice -9.75 1-3 (1-1) 2 121
7 UTEP -12.25 0-4 (0-1) 3 128


Sun Belt

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 App State -2.75 2-2 (1-0) 12 68
2 Troy -2.75 3-1 (1-0) 7 69
3 Arkansas St -5.75 1-2 (0-0) 10 T92
4 UL Monroe -5.75 1-2 (1-0) 1 T94
5 N Mexico St -6 2-2 (0-1) 2 T97
6 Georgia St -6.5 1-2 (0-0) 4 105
7 Idaho -7.5 2-2 (1-0) 4 112
8 S Alabama -7.75 1-3 (0-1) 7 114
9 GA Southern -9.5 0-3 (0-0) 11 120
10 UL Lafayette -10 1-3 (0-1) 3 122
11 Texas St -10 1-3 (0-1) 7 123
12 Co Carolina -10 1-2 (0-0) 6 124


Independents

Rank Team Score Record (Conf) Rem Sched Rank NatlRank
1 Notre Dame 2.25 3-1 (0-0) 1 20
2 BYU -4.75 1-3 (0-0) 4 84
3 Army -4.75 2-2 (0-0) 3 85
4 Umass -15.75 0-5 (0-0) 2 130