Coursera Regression Models Course Project
Steve Wenck
September 24, 2017
Executive Summary
In this analysis the relationship between miles per gallon (MPG) and other characterisitcs of cars is explored. Of particular interest are the following two questions: * Is an automatic or manual transmission better for MPG * What is the measured difference in MPG for automatic and manual transmission cars
The data used for this analysis are comprised of fuel consumption and 10 aspects of automobile design and performance for 32 automobiles (1973/74 models) compiled by Motor Trend US magazine in 1974.
The analysis started with an exploration of the dataset to assess the variables on the datset as well as the relationships between those variables.
The mean MPG for automatic transmission cars was 17.1 MPG, while the mean MPG for manual transmission cars was 24.4. A test of significance supported that these two means were statistically different from each other at the 95% confidence level.
Various regression models were tested to determine the optimal set of predictors for MPG. First, transmission type was tested as the only predictor. That model only explained about 36 percent of the variability of the response data. Using stepwise model selection, the optimized model for prediction of MPG was determined to be transmission type (am), weight (wt), and quarter mile time (qsec). This model explained approvimately 85 percent of the variability of the response data.
The addition of weight and quarter mile time reduced the difference between transmission types to 2.9 MPG from 7.2 MPG with only transmission type as the predictor. The optimized model, adding weight and quarter mile time, still held that manual transmissions had better MPG than did automatic transmissions. The difference was shaved from 7.2 MPG with transmission type as the only predictor, to 2.9 MPG with the addition of weight and quarter mile time.
Highlights are presented below with full code and results following in the appendix.
Exploratory Analysis
Above, the boxplot appears to show that manual transmission cars have higher MPG than do automatic transmission cars. That difference is born out as true when performing the Welch Two Sample T-test (see appendix for details).
## mpg cyl disp hp drat wt qsec vs am gear carb
## mpg 1.00 -0.85 -0.85 -0.78 0.68 -0.87 0.42 0.66 0.60 0.48 -0.55
## cyl -0.85 1.00 0.90 0.83 -0.70 0.78 -0.59 -0.81 -0.52 -0.49 0.53
## disp -0.85 0.90 1.00 0.79 -0.71 0.89 -0.43 -0.71 -0.59 -0.56 0.39
## hp -0.78 0.83 0.79 1.00 -0.45 0.66 -0.71 -0.72 -0.24 -0.13 0.75
## drat 0.68 -0.70 -0.71 -0.45 1.00 -0.71 0.09 0.44 0.71 0.70 -0.09
## wt -0.87 0.78 0.89 0.66 -0.71 1.00 -0.17 -0.55 -0.69 -0.58 0.43
## qsec 0.42 -0.59 -0.43 -0.71 0.09 -0.17 1.00 0.74 -0.23 -0.21 -0.66
## vs 0.66 -0.81 -0.71 -0.72 0.44 -0.55 0.74 1.00 0.17 0.21 -0.57
## am 0.60 -0.52 -0.59 -0.24 0.71 -0.69 -0.23 0.17 1.00 0.79 0.06
## gear 0.48 -0.49 -0.56 -0.13 0.70 -0.58 -0.21 0.21 0.79 1.00 0.27
## carb -0.55 0.53 0.39 0.75 -0.09 0.43 -0.66 -0.57 0.06 0.27 1.00
##
## n= 32
##
##
## P
## mpg cyl disp hp drat wt qsec vs am gear
## mpg 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0171 0.0000 0.0003 0.0054
## cyl 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0004 0.0000 0.0022 0.0042
## disp 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0131 0.0000 0.0004 0.0010
## hp 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0100 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.1798 0.4930
## drat 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0100 0.0000 0.6196 0.0117 0.0000 0.0000
## wt 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.3389 0.0010 0.0000 0.0005
## qsec 0.0171 0.0004 0.0131 0.0000 0.6196 0.3389 0.0000 0.2057 0.2425
## vs 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0117 0.0010 0.0000 0.3570 0.2579
## am 0.0003 0.0022 0.0004 0.1798 0.0000 0.0000 0.2057 0.3570 0.0000
## gear 0.0054 0.0042 0.0010 0.4930 0.0000 0.0005 0.2425 0.2579 0.0000
## carb 0.0011 0.0019 0.0253 0.0000 0.6212 0.0146 0.0000 0.0007 0.7545 0.1290
## carb
## mpg 0.0011
## cyl 0.0019
## disp 0.0253
## hp 0.0000
## drat 0.6212
## wt 0.0146
## qsec 0.0000
## vs 0.0007
## am 0.7545
## gear 0.1290
## carbThe correlation matrix and their associated standard errors, above, shows that there are a number of variables that are associated with MPG, but unfortunately, many are also associated with each other. This is to be expected with variables such as displacement (disp) and horsepower (hp). Therefore, simply adding predictors to the basic model (mpg ~ am) will likely result in correlated variables being added unnecessarily. For this reason, stepwise model selection is employed to ensure that the optimal model is achieved without overpredicting.
Regression Analysis
##
## Call:
## lm(formula = mpg ~ ., data = mtcars)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -3.4506 -1.6044 -0.1196 1.2193 4.6271
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 12.30337 18.71788 0.657 0.5181
## cyl -0.11144 1.04502 -0.107 0.9161
## disp 0.01334 0.01786 0.747 0.4635
## hp -0.02148 0.02177 -0.987 0.3350
## drat 0.78711 1.63537 0.481 0.6353
## wt -3.71530 1.89441 -1.961 0.0633 .
## qsec 0.82104 0.73084 1.123 0.2739
## vs 0.31776 2.10451 0.151 0.8814
## am 2.52023 2.05665 1.225 0.2340
## gear 0.65541 1.49326 0.439 0.6652
## carb -0.19942 0.82875 -0.241 0.8122
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 2.65 on 21 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.869, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8066
## F-statistic: 13.93 on 10 and 21 DF, p-value: 3.793e-07The fully specified model, above, has correlation issues mentioned previously. However, it is the necessary starting point for the stepwise function to determine the optimal model. The step function (details presented in appendix) evaluates the data and predictors and determined that the optimal model is MPG ~ AM + WT + QSEC.
## Analysis of Variance Table
##
## Model 1: mpg ~ factor(am)
## Model 2: mpg ~ factor(am) + wt + qsec
## Res.Df RSS Df Sum of Sq F Pr(>F)
## 1 30 720.90
## 2 28 169.29 2 551.61 45.618 1.55e-09 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1The inital model (MPG ~ AM) and final model are compared above and indeed, the final model is quite an improvement over the original model.
## Check model diagnostics
par(mfrow=c(2,2))
plot(modelbest)
Finally, model diagnostics were checked to make sure that no assumptions were violated and the final model was a good one. The above plots confirm the assumptions held and the model was useful.
APPENDIX
The full R code used for the analysis is presented below.
############################################################################################
## Coursera Regression Models Course Project ##
## ##
## PROGRAM: C:\Users\swenck\Documents\R\Coursera\Data Science\Course 7\Project\project7.r ##
## AUTHOR: Steve Wenck ##
## DATE: September 24, 2017 ##
############################################################################################
## Set working directory
setwd("~/R/Coursera/Data Science/Course 7/Project")
## Load needed packages
library(Hmisc)
## Load the MTCars dataset
data(mtcars)
## Look at first few rows of MTCars data
head(mtcars)
## List MTCars dataset information
str(mtcars)
## View numeric summary of MTCars dataset
summary(mtcars)
## Convert AM variable to factor variable
mtcars$am <- as.factor(mtcars$am)
## Apply value labels to AM factor variable
levels(mtcars$am) <- c("Automatic","Manual")
## Look at transmission data
table(mtcars$am)
## Plot of MPG by Transmission type
boxplot(mpg~am, data=mtcars, ylab="Miles per gallon", xlab="Transmission type")
## Compare mean MPG by Transmission type
t.test(mpg~am, data=mtcars)
## Examine correlations between variables
rcorr(as.matrix(mtcars))
## Start with simple linear model
model1 <- lm(mpg~factor(am), data=mtcars)
summary(model1)
## Examine model with all predictors
modelall <- lm(mpg~., data=mtcars)
summary(modelall)
## Use stepwise selection to find best model
modelbest <- step(modelall)
modelbest <- lm(mpg~factor(am)+wt+qsec,data=mtcars)
summary(modelbest)
## Compare inital model and final model
anova(model1,modelbest)
## Check model diagnostics
par(mfrow=c(2,2))
plot(modelbest)The full results of the above code are presented here.
## mpg cyl disp hp drat wt qsec vs am gear carb
## Mazda RX4 21.0 6 160 110 3.90 2.620 16.46 0 1 4 4
## Mazda RX4 Wag 21.0 6 160 110 3.90 2.875 17.02 0 1 4 4
## Datsun 710 22.8 4 108 93 3.85 2.320 18.61 1 1 4 1
## Hornet 4 Drive 21.4 6 258 110 3.08 3.215 19.44 1 0 3 1
## Hornet Sportabout 18.7 8 360 175 3.15 3.440 17.02 0 0 3 2
## Valiant 18.1 6 225 105 2.76 3.460 20.22 1 0 3 1## 'data.frame': 32 obs. of 11 variables:
## $ mpg : num 21 21 22.8 21.4 18.7 18.1 14.3 24.4 22.8 19.2 ...
## $ cyl : num 6 6 4 6 8 6 8 4 4 6 ...
## $ disp: num 160 160 108 258 360 ...
## $ hp : num 110 110 93 110 175 105 245 62 95 123 ...
## $ drat: num 3.9 3.9 3.85 3.08 3.15 2.76 3.21 3.69 3.92 3.92 ...
## $ wt : num 2.62 2.88 2.32 3.21 3.44 ...
## $ qsec: num 16.5 17 18.6 19.4 17 ...
## $ vs : num 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 ...
## $ am : num 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ gear: num 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 ...
## $ carb: num 4 4 1 1 2 1 4 2 2 4 ...## mpg cyl disp hp
## Min. :10.40 Min. :4.000 Min. : 71.1 Min. : 52.0
## 1st Qu.:15.43 1st Qu.:4.000 1st Qu.:120.8 1st Qu.: 96.5
## Median :19.20 Median :6.000 Median :196.3 Median :123.0
## Mean :20.09 Mean :6.188 Mean :230.7 Mean :146.7
## 3rd Qu.:22.80 3rd Qu.:8.000 3rd Qu.:326.0 3rd Qu.:180.0
## Max. :33.90 Max. :8.000 Max. :472.0 Max. :335.0
## drat wt qsec vs
## Min. :2.760 Min. :1.513 Min. :14.50 Min. :0.0000
## 1st Qu.:3.080 1st Qu.:2.581 1st Qu.:16.89 1st Qu.:0.0000
## Median :3.695 Median :3.325 Median :17.71 Median :0.0000
## Mean :3.597 Mean :3.217 Mean :17.85 Mean :0.4375
## 3rd Qu.:3.920 3rd Qu.:3.610 3rd Qu.:18.90 3rd Qu.:1.0000
## Max. :4.930 Max. :5.424 Max. :22.90 Max. :1.0000
## am gear carb
## Min. :0.0000 Min. :3.000 Min. :1.000
## 1st Qu.:0.0000 1st Qu.:3.000 1st Qu.:2.000
## Median :0.0000 Median :4.000 Median :2.000
## Mean :0.4062 Mean :3.688 Mean :2.812
## 3rd Qu.:1.0000 3rd Qu.:4.000 3rd Qu.:4.000
## Max. :1.0000 Max. :5.000 Max. :8.000##
## Automatic Manual
## 19 13
##
## Welch Two Sample t-test
##
## data: mpg by am
## t = -3.7671, df = 18.332, p-value = 0.001374
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
## -11.280194 -3.209684
## sample estimates:
## mean in group Automatic mean in group Manual
## 17.14737 24.39231## mpg cyl disp hp drat wt qsec vs am gear carb
## mpg 1.00 -0.85 -0.85 -0.78 0.68 -0.87 0.42 0.66 0.60 0.48 -0.55
## cyl -0.85 1.00 0.90 0.83 -0.70 0.78 -0.59 -0.81 -0.52 -0.49 0.53
## disp -0.85 0.90 1.00 0.79 -0.71 0.89 -0.43 -0.71 -0.59 -0.56 0.39
## hp -0.78 0.83 0.79 1.00 -0.45 0.66 -0.71 -0.72 -0.24 -0.13 0.75
## drat 0.68 -0.70 -0.71 -0.45 1.00 -0.71 0.09 0.44 0.71 0.70 -0.09
## wt -0.87 0.78 0.89 0.66 -0.71 1.00 -0.17 -0.55 -0.69 -0.58 0.43
## qsec 0.42 -0.59 -0.43 -0.71 0.09 -0.17 1.00 0.74 -0.23 -0.21 -0.66
## vs 0.66 -0.81 -0.71 -0.72 0.44 -0.55 0.74 1.00 0.17 0.21 -0.57
## am 0.60 -0.52 -0.59 -0.24 0.71 -0.69 -0.23 0.17 1.00 0.79 0.06
## gear 0.48 -0.49 -0.56 -0.13 0.70 -0.58 -0.21 0.21 0.79 1.00 0.27
## carb -0.55 0.53 0.39 0.75 -0.09 0.43 -0.66 -0.57 0.06 0.27 1.00
##
## n= 32
##
##
## P
## mpg cyl disp hp drat wt qsec vs am gear
## mpg 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0171 0.0000 0.0003 0.0054
## cyl 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0004 0.0000 0.0022 0.0042
## disp 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0131 0.0000 0.0004 0.0010
## hp 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0100 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.1798 0.4930
## drat 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0100 0.0000 0.6196 0.0117 0.0000 0.0000
## wt 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.3389 0.0010 0.0000 0.0005
## qsec 0.0171 0.0004 0.0131 0.0000 0.6196 0.3389 0.0000 0.2057 0.2425
## vs 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0117 0.0010 0.0000 0.3570 0.2579
## am 0.0003 0.0022 0.0004 0.1798 0.0000 0.0000 0.2057 0.3570 0.0000
## gear 0.0054 0.0042 0.0010 0.4930 0.0000 0.0005 0.2425 0.2579 0.0000
## carb 0.0011 0.0019 0.0253 0.0000 0.6212 0.0146 0.0000 0.0007 0.7545 0.1290
## carb
## mpg 0.0011
## cyl 0.0019
## disp 0.0253
## hp 0.0000
## drat 0.6212
## wt 0.0146
## qsec 0.0000
## vs 0.0007
## am 0.7545
## gear 0.1290
## carb##
## Call:
## lm(formula = mpg ~ factor(am), data = mtcars)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -9.3923 -3.0923 -0.2974 3.2439 9.5077
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 17.147 1.125 15.247 1.13e-15 ***
## factor(am)Manual 7.245 1.764 4.106 0.000285 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 4.902 on 30 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.3598, Adjusted R-squared: 0.3385
## F-statistic: 16.86 on 1 and 30 DF, p-value: 0.000285##
## Call:
## lm(formula = mpg ~ ., data = mtcars)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -3.4506 -1.6044 -0.1196 1.2193 4.6271
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 12.30337 18.71788 0.657 0.5181
## cyl -0.11144 1.04502 -0.107 0.9161
## disp 0.01334 0.01786 0.747 0.4635
## hp -0.02148 0.02177 -0.987 0.3350
## drat 0.78711 1.63537 0.481 0.6353
## wt -3.71530 1.89441 -1.961 0.0633 .
## qsec 0.82104 0.73084 1.123 0.2739
## vs 0.31776 2.10451 0.151 0.8814
## amManual 2.52023 2.05665 1.225 0.2340
## gear 0.65541 1.49326 0.439 0.6652
## carb -0.19942 0.82875 -0.241 0.8122
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 2.65 on 21 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.869, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8066
## F-statistic: 13.93 on 10 and 21 DF, p-value: 3.793e-07## Start: AIC=70.9
## mpg ~ cyl + disp + hp + drat + wt + qsec + vs + am + gear + carb
##
## Df Sum of Sq RSS AIC
## - cyl 1 0.0799 147.57 68.915
## - vs 1 0.1601 147.66 68.932
## - carb 1 0.4067 147.90 68.986
## - gear 1 1.3531 148.85 69.190
## - drat 1 1.6270 149.12 69.249
## - disp 1 3.9167 151.41 69.736
## - hp 1 6.8399 154.33 70.348
## - qsec 1 8.8641 156.36 70.765
## <none> 147.49 70.898
## - am 1 10.5467 158.04 71.108
## - wt 1 27.0144 174.51 74.280
##
## Step: AIC=68.92
## mpg ~ disp + hp + drat + wt + qsec + vs + am + gear + carb
##
## Df Sum of Sq RSS AIC
## - vs 1 0.2685 147.84 66.973
## - carb 1 0.5201 148.09 67.028
## - gear 1 1.8211 149.40 67.308
## - drat 1 1.9826 149.56 67.342
## - disp 1 3.9009 151.47 67.750
## - hp 1 7.3632 154.94 68.473
## <none> 147.57 68.915
## - qsec 1 10.0933 157.67 69.032
## - am 1 11.8359 159.41 69.384
## - wt 1 27.0280 174.60 72.297
##
## Step: AIC=66.97
## mpg ~ disp + hp + drat + wt + qsec + am + gear + carb
##
## Df Sum of Sq RSS AIC
## - carb 1 0.6855 148.53 65.121
## - gear 1 2.1437 149.99 65.434
## - drat 1 2.2139 150.06 65.449
## - disp 1 3.6467 151.49 65.753
## - hp 1 7.1060 154.95 66.475
## <none> 147.84 66.973
## - am 1 11.5694 159.41 67.384
## - qsec 1 15.6830 163.53 68.200
## - wt 1 27.3799 175.22 70.410
##
## Step: AIC=65.12
## mpg ~ disp + hp + drat + wt + qsec + am + gear
##
## Df Sum of Sq RSS AIC
## - gear 1 1.565 150.09 63.457
## - drat 1 1.932 150.46 63.535
## <none> 148.53 65.121
## - disp 1 10.110 158.64 65.229
## - am 1 12.323 160.85 65.672
## - hp 1 14.826 163.35 66.166
## - qsec 1 26.408 174.94 68.358
## - wt 1 69.127 217.66 75.350
##
## Step: AIC=63.46
## mpg ~ disp + hp + drat + wt + qsec + am
##
## Df Sum of Sq RSS AIC
## - drat 1 3.345 153.44 62.162
## - disp 1 8.545 158.64 63.229
## <none> 150.09 63.457
## - hp 1 13.285 163.38 64.171
## - am 1 20.036 170.13 65.466
## - qsec 1 25.574 175.67 66.491
## - wt 1 67.572 217.66 73.351
##
## Step: AIC=62.16
## mpg ~ disp + hp + wt + qsec + am
##
## Df Sum of Sq RSS AIC
## - disp 1 6.629 160.07 61.515
## <none> 153.44 62.162
## - hp 1 12.572 166.01 62.682
## - qsec 1 26.470 179.91 65.255
## - am 1 32.198 185.63 66.258
## - wt 1 69.043 222.48 72.051
##
## Step: AIC=61.52
## mpg ~ hp + wt + qsec + am
##
## Df Sum of Sq RSS AIC
## - hp 1 9.219 169.29 61.307
## <none> 160.07 61.515
## - qsec 1 20.225 180.29 63.323
## - am 1 25.993 186.06 64.331
## - wt 1 78.494 238.56 72.284
##
## Step: AIC=61.31
## mpg ~ wt + qsec + am
##
## Df Sum of Sq RSS AIC
## <none> 169.29 61.307
## - am 1 26.178 195.46 63.908
## - qsec 1 109.034 278.32 75.217
## - wt 1 183.347 352.63 82.790##
## Call:
## lm(formula = mpg ~ factor(am) + wt + qsec, data = mtcars)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -3.4811 -1.5555 -0.7257 1.4110 4.6610
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 9.6178 6.9596 1.382 0.177915
## factor(am)Manual 2.9358 1.4109 2.081 0.046716 *
## wt -3.9165 0.7112 -5.507 6.95e-06 ***
## qsec 1.2259 0.2887 4.247 0.000216 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 2.459 on 28 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.8497, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8336
## F-statistic: 52.75 on 3 and 28 DF, p-value: 1.21e-11## Analysis of Variance Table
##
## Model 1: mpg ~ factor(am)
## Model 2: mpg ~ factor(am) + wt + qsec
## Res.Df RSS Df Sum of Sq F Pr(>F)
## 1 30 720.90
## 2 28 169.29 2 551.61 45.618 1.55e-09 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1