Going Dutch?

Crunching transport ‘big data’ for a sustainable world

Robin Lovelace

2017-09-11. Slides: rpubs.com/RobinLovelace.

Outline

  • Why Go Dutch
  • Going Dutch in Leeds
  • Where next?

Why Go Dutch?

A brief history of transport modelling

  • Vital to the history of transport modelling (Boyce and Williams 2015)

The propensity to cycle tool (www.pct.bike)

Source: (Lovelace et al. 2017)

Going Dutch in Leeds

The Propensity to Cycle Tool - see www.pct.bike

The front page of the open source, open access Propensity to Cycle Tool (PCT).

The front page of the open source, open access Propensity to Cycle Tool (PCT).

Headline results

  • Cycling uptake on a large scale:
Scenario Cycle_commuters Car_drivers All Percent_cycling
2011 6250 191282 326680 2
Go Dutch 51442 168541 326680 16

Health savings

  • Estimated at £24m/yr for Leeds
  • Using the HEAT methodology
  • Not including improved air quality
  • Or improved road traffic safety levels
  • Or wider benefits

Geographic distribution of cycling

  • Live exploration on www.pct.bike

Where next?

Next steps for the Propensity to Cycle Tool

  • Plans to create a toolkit for cycling infrastructure prioritisation - see cyip.bike
  • Combines many datasets to identify 'low hanging fruit'

Credit: Malcolm Morgan

Next steps for Leeds?

What could you get for £173m?

  • £1.15 m/km for 23 km Leeds-Bradford superhighway
  • ~£0.5 m/km for strategic cycle network (variety)
  • £0.25 - £1.9m for junction remodelling

Source: Transport and Quality of Life (interim report)

What could the trolleybus scheme get?

What could we get in Leeds?

  • Preliminary scenario of uptake based on Highways England Advice Note 195/16
  • 157 km of Cycle Lanes, Streets, and Seggregated Tracks
  • Not including junction remodelling
  • See interactive map at rpubs.com/Robinlovelace
type length (km) cost (£) Cost pkm (£1000)
Cycle Lanes 70.43 31829.75 451.92
Cycle Street 11.86 177.86 14.99
Segregated Cycle Track 36.08 52310.85 1450.00
Stepped Cycle Tracks 39.05 36938.27 945.84

Zooming in: northwest Leeds

Potential for cycling - public transport integration

A typology of active travel options.

A typology of active travel options.

Next steps

  • Create a vision of a strategic cycle network
  • Make it evidence-based (e.g. using CyIPT/PCT)
  • With costings of estimated benefits and costs
  • Compare with benefits and cost of alternatives
  • Integration with different modes (walking, public transport co-benefits)
  • And linked-in with the council

Plug: Pedaller's Arms

Cycle repair cooperative in Leeds

  • 'Go Dutch' assumes everyone has access to a good working cycle
  • Many people do not!

Get your bikes and others fixed up

Thanks + References

  • Thanks for listening - get in touch via r.lovelace@leeds.ac.uk or @robinlovelace

Boyce, David E., and Huw C. W. L. Williams. 2015. Forecasting Urban Travel: Past, Present and Future. Edward Elgar Publishing.

Lovelace, Robin, Anna Goodman, Rachel Aldred, Nikolai Berkoff, Ali Abbas, and James Woodcock. 2017. “The Propensity to Cycle Tool: An Open Source Online System for Sustainable Transport Planning.” Journal of Transport and Land Use 10 (1). doi:10.5198/jtlu.2016.862.