2.7

Swing voters.

A 2012 Pew Research survey asked 2,373 randomly sampled registered voters their political a liation (Republican, Democrat, or Independent) and whether or not they identify as swing voters. 35% of respondents identified as Independent, 23% identified as swing voters, and 11% identified as both.58

  1. Are being Independent and being a swing voter disjoint, i.e. mutually exclusive? #### not really, i think there’s a slight connection, a lot of independent voters are also swing voters.

  2. Draw a Venn diagram summarizing the variables and their associated probabilities.

sample <- 2373
indep <- .35
swing <-.23
both <- .11
library(VennDiagram)
## Loading required package: grid
## Loading required package: futile.logger
grid.newpage()
draw.pairwise.venn(area1 = indep, area2 = swing, cross.area = both, category = c("Independents", 
    "Swing"))

## (polygon[GRID.polygon.1], polygon[GRID.polygon.2], polygon[GRID.polygon.3], polygon[GRID.polygon.4], text[GRID.text.5], text[GRID.text.6], text[GRID.text.7], text[GRID.text.8], text[GRID.text.9])
  1. What percent of voters are Independent but not swing voters?
(indep-both)
## [1] 0.24
  1. What percent of voters are Independent or swing voters?
indep+swing-both
## [1] 0.47
  1. What percent of voters are neither Independent nor swing voters?
1-(indep+swing-both)
## [1] 0.53
  1. Is the event that someone is a swing voter independent of the event that someone is a political Independent?
if(indep*swing == both){
  "YES"
} else "NO"
## [1] "NO"

it is not.