paste(formatC(sum(timedat$Duration)/(dim(timedat)[1])), digits=3, "-hours", sep="")
## [1] "34.653-hours"
SAIDI <- ((10 * 30000) + (20 * 20000) + (60 * 8000))/ 1000000
paste ("SAIDI = ", SAIDI, "-hours",sep="")
## [1] "SAIDI = 1.18-hours"
SAIDI <- ((98 * 2750) + (21 * 1710) + (95 * 1516))/ 84500
paste ("SAIDI = ", formatC(SAIDI, digits=3), "-minutes",sep="")
## [1] "SAIDI = 5.32-minutes"
SAIFI <- ((5 * 1000) + (4 * 2000) + (2 * 7000))/ 10000
paste ("SAIFI = ", SAIFI, " Events per year",sep="")
## [1] "SAIFI = 2.7 Events per year"
## 'data.frame': 307 obs. of 14 variables:
## $ Year : chr "2013" "2013" "2013" "2013" ...
## $ Utility_ID : int 15474 5078 590 5070 14715 689 16609 25177 10421 11171 ...
## $ Utility_Name : chr "Public Service Co of Oklahoma" "Denton County Elec Coop, Inc" "City of Anaheim - (CA)" "Delaware Electric Cooperative" ...
## $ Size_Class : num 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
## $ State : chr "OK" "TX" "CA" "DE" ...
## $ State_Code : num 6 6 8 1 1 3 8 3 3 1 ...
## $ Region : Factor w/ 8 levels "East_Coast","High_Plains",..: 6 6 8 1 1 3 8 3 3 1 ...
## $ Number_of_Customers : num 535673 176278 115577 85546 1395325 ...
## $ SAIDI_Without_MED : num 99 36.2 53 94 91 ...
## $ SAIFI_Without_MED : num 1.07 0.6 0.68 1.29 0.84 ...
## $ SAIFI_With_MED : num 1.58 0.6 0.68 1.73 0.86 ...
## $ SAIFI_With_MED_Minus_LOS: num 501 36.2 53 139 170 ...
## $ SAIDI_With_MED_Minus_LOS: num 1.27 0.6 0.68 1.68 0.86 ...
## $ SAIDI_With_MED : num 471 36 53 137 170 ...
## - attr(*, "na.action")=Class 'omit' Named int [1:11] 7 26 32 33 59 74 93 98 113 138 ...
## .. ..- attr(*, "names")= chr [1:11] "241" "748" "286" "770" ...
Variable | Correlation |
---|---|
Size_Class | |
State_Code | 0.03 |
Number_of_Customers | 0.03 |
SAIDI_Without_MED | 0.57 |
SAIFI_Without_MED | 0.41 |
SAIFI_With_MED | 0.57 |
SAIFI_With_MED_Minus_LOS | 0.99 |
SAIDI_With_MED_Minus_LOS | 0.62 |
SAIDI_With_MED | 1.00 |
## set.seed(32323)
## rffit1 <- train(SAIDI_With_MED ~ SAIDI_Without_MED, method="rf", data=training) )
## rffit2 <- train(SAIDI_With_MED ~ SAIDI_Without_MED + State_Code, method="rf", data=training))
## rffit3 <- train(SAIDI_With_MED ~ SAIDI_Without_MED + SAIFI_Without_MED + State_Code, method="rf", data=training)
Prediction_Model | Prediction | Actual | Median_Error | RMSE |
---|---|---|---|---|
SAIDA | 190 | 219 | 36.8 | 95 |
SAIDA + SAIFI | 205 | 219 | 40.6 | 85.7 |
SAIDA + SAIFI + Region | 205 | 219 | 37.8 | 81.9 |
http://insideenergy.org/2014/08/18/data-explore-15-years-of-power-outages/
Raw Reliability Data:
## 'data.frame': 966 obs. of 22 variables:
## $ Data.Year : chr "2013" "2013" "2013" "2013" ...
## $ Utility.Number : int 97 108 155 162 195 207 213 232 240 276 ...
## $ Utility.Name : chr "Adams Electric Coop" "Adams-Columbia Electric Coop" "Agralite Electric Coop" "Aiken Electric Coop Inc" ...
## $ State : chr "IL" "WI" "MN" "SC" ...
## $ SAIDI.With.MED : chr "223.000" "143.000" "1,142.000" "." ...
## $ SAIDI.Without.MED : chr "158.000" "58.000" "141.000" "." ...
## $ SAIDI.With.MED.Minus.LOS : chr "191.000" "139.000" "1,134.000" "." ...
## $ SAIFI.With.MED : chr "1.810" "1.093" "3.000" "." ...
## $ SAIFI.Without.MED : chr "1.350" "0.691" "1.000" "." ...
## $ SAIFI.With.MED.Minus.LOS : chr "1.390" "1.028" "2.000" "." ...
## $ Number.of.Customers : chr "8,715" "36,014" "5,122" "." ...
## $ Highest.Dist..Voltage : chr "34.5" "12.0" "12.0" "." ...
## $ Outages.Recorded.Automatically : chr "N" "Y" "N" "" ...
## $ SAIDI.With.MED.1 : chr "." "." "." "140.000" ...
## $ SAIDI.Without.MED.1 : chr "." "." "." "140.000" ...
## $ SAIFI.With.MED.1 : chr "." "." "." "." ...
## $ SAIFI.Without.MED.1 : chr "." "." "." "." ...
## $ Number.of.Customers.1 : chr "." "." "." "45,948" ...
## $ Inactive.Accounts.Included : chr "" "" "" "N" ...
## $ Momentary.Interruptions : chr "" "" "" "L" ...
## $ Highest.Dist..Voltage.1 : chr "." "." "." "25.0" ...
## $ Outages.Recorded.Automatically.1: chr "" "" "" "N" ...
Raw Event Data:
## 'data.frame': 228 obs. of 9 variables:
## $ Date.Event.Began : chr "January " "1/6/2014" "1/6/2014" "1/6/2014" ...
## $ Time.Event.Began : chr "" "7:50 PM" "7:50 PM" "7:52 PM" ...
## $ Date.of.Restoration : chr "" "1/6/2014" "1/6/2014" "1/6/2014" ...
## $ Time.of.Restoration : chr "" "8:44 PM" "8:44 PM" "8:45 PM" ...
## $ Area.Affected : chr "" "District of Columbia" "Unknown" "Delaware" ...
## $ NERC.Region : chr "" "RFC" "RFC" "RFC" ...
## $ Event.Type : chr "" "Voltage Reduction due to Severe Weather - Cold" "Voltage Reduction due to Severe Weather - Cold" "Voltage Reduction due to Severe Weather - Cold" ...
## $ Demand.Loss..MW. : chr "" "Unknown" "Unknown" "Unknown" ...
## $ Number.of.Customers.Affected: chr "" "Unknown" "Unknown" "Unknown" ...
Utility | Region | Number_of_Customers | Prediction | Actual | Percent_Error | Squared_Error |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AEP Texas North Company | South | 188368.00 | 137.62 | 104.90 | -23.77 | 565.24 |
Appalachian Power Co | Midwest | 463269.00 | 726.56 | 582.17 | -19.87 | 394.97 |
Atlantic City Electric Co | East_Coast | 537316.00 | 172.40 | 747.50 | 333.59 | 111281.11 |
Baltimore Gas & Electric Co | East_Coast | 1247793.00 | 126.07 | 162.50 | 28.89 | 834.85 |
Berkeley Electric Coop Inc | Southeast | 87933.00 | 472.19 | 173.60 | -63.23 | 3998.65 |
City of Anaheim - (CA) | West_Coast | 115577.00 | 87.70 | 53.00 | -39.57 | 1565.72 |
City of Chattanooga - (TN) | Midwest | 173464.00 | 113.47 | 83.83 | -26.12 | 682.33 |
City of Colorado Springs - (CO) | High_Plains | 223677.00 | 54.40 | 40.65 | -25.28 | 639.25 |
City of Memphis - (TN) | Midwest | 407292.00 | 366.69 | 255.90 | -30.21 | 912.85 |
City of Seattle - (WA) | West_Coast | 409619.00 | 91.92 | 127.00 | 38.17 | 1456.84 |
Cobb Electric Membership Corp | Southeast | 194910.00 | 42.48 | 31.24 | -26.46 | 700.18 |
Connecticut Light & Power Co | New_England | 1248364.00 | 198.38 | 93.57 | -52.83 | 2791.31 |
Connexus Energy | Midwest | 128362.00 | 38.37 | 36.63 | -4.55 | 20.73 |
Consumers Energy Co | Midwest | 1791831.00 | 275.11 | 769.20 | 179.59 | 32254.02 |
Delaware Electric Cooperative | East_Coast | 86497.00 | 423.02 | 154.99 | -63.36 | 4014.58 |
Delmarva Power | East_Coast | 308123.00 | 208.09 | 201.00 | -3.40 | 11.59 |
DTE Electric Company | Midwest | 2171880.00 | 208.56 | 551.00 | 164.20 | 26960.76 |
Duke Energy Carolinas, LLC | East_Coast | 1445079.00 | 182.50 | 193.67 | 6.12 | 37.44 |
Duke Energy Florida, Inc | Southeast | 1710740.00 | 207.18 | 98.41 | -52.50 | 2756.53 |
Duke Energy Progress - (NC) | East_Coast | 739470.00 | 221.13 | 348.50 | 57.60 | 3317.77 |
El Paso Electric Co | South | 199796.00 | 82.42 | 76.90 | -6.70 | 44.85 |
Emera Maine | New_England | 144702.00 | 453.54 | 781.33 | 72.27 | 5223.42 |
EnergyUnited Elec Member Corp | East_Coast | 123413.00 | 378.43 | 120.50 | -68.16 | 4645.48 |
Entergy Arkansas Inc | South | 715380.00 | 723.59 | 394.00 | -45.55 | 2074.77 |
Entergy Mississippi Inc | South | 449798.00 | 469.93 | 345.00 | -26.59 | 706.77 |
Entergy New Orleans Inc | South | 199066.00 | 167.10 | 222.30 | 33.04 | 1091.42 |
First Electric Coop Corp | South | 90243.00 | 279.07 | 223.19 | -20.02 | 400.89 |
Flint Electric Membership Corp | Southeast | 82038.00 | 134.48 | 80.00 | -40.51 | 1641.04 |
Florida Power & Light Co | Southeast | 4796829.00 | 93.33 | 65.08 | -30.27 | 916.35 |
GreyStone Power Corporation | Southeast | 122768.00 | 23.71 | 1.30 | -94.52 | 8933.67 |
Idaho Power Co | Mountain | 493755.00 | 243.96 | 163.35 | -33.04 | 1091.81 |
Indiana Michigan Power Co | Midwest | 127230.00 | 729.16 | 968.70 | 32.85 | 1079.18 |
Indianapolis Power & Light Co | Midwest | 476585.00 | 96.97 | 163.97 | 69.09 | 4772.92 |
Jackson Electric Member Corp - (GA) | Southeast | 211650.00 | 96.45 | 517.25 | 436.28 | 190339.78 |
Jersey Central Power & Lt Co | East_Coast | 1102537.00 | 131.61 | 127.60 | -3.05 | 9.29 |
Kansas City Power & Light Co | Midwest | 266460.00 | 134.28 | 227.20 | 69.19 | 4787.57 |
KCP&L Greater Missouri Operations Co. | Midwest | 309195.00 | 189.42 | 199.44 | 5.29 | 27.96 |
Kentucky Power Co | Midwest | 168943.00 | 619.03 | 903.65 | 45.98 | 2114.05 |
Kentucky Utilities Co | Midwest | 513931.00 | 156.89 | 117.56 | -25.07 | 628.49 |
Knoxville Utilities Board | Midwest | 196871.00 | 23.71 | 3.38 | -85.75 | 7352.57 |
Long Island Power Authority | East_Coast | 1116191.00 | 110.55 | 73.80 | -33.24 | 1105.09 |
Louisville Gas & Electric Co | Midwest | 399706.00 | 100.17 | 138.86 | 38.62 | 1491.42 |
Madison Gas & Electric Co | Midwest | 143284.00 | 37.47 | 39.00 | 4.08 | 16.63 |
Massachusetts Electric Co | New_England | 1273294.00 | 171.93 | 225.26 | 31.01 | 961.92 |
Metropolitan Edison Co | East_Coast | 551502.00 | 205.66 | 468.69 | 127.90 | 16357.94 |
MidAmerican Energy Co | Midwest | 467265.00 | 169.97 | 141.00 | -17.04 | 290.53 |
Monongahela Power Co | Midwest | 383887.00 | 605.14 | 767.20 | 26.78 | 717.17 |
Nebraska Public Power District | High_Plains | 89381.00 | 99.74 | 172.78 | 73.23 | 5362.98 |
Nevada Power Co | Mountain | 889465.00 | 43.68 | 0.00 | -100.00 | 10000.00 |
Niagara Mohawk Power Corp. | East_Coast | 1605329.00 | 112.80 | 165.21 | 46.46 | 2158.28 |
North Georgia Elec Member Corp | Southeast | 96934.00 | 243.98 | 187.04 | -23.34 | 544.77 |
Northern States Power Co | Midwest | 250438.00 | 138.96 | 178.00 | 28.10 | 789.50 |
Northern States Power Co - Minnesota | Midwest | 655619.00 | 107.75 | 202.43 | 87.87 | 7720.33 |
Northern Virginia Elec Coop | East_Coast | 153010.00 | 66.55 | 42.10 | -36.74 | 1349.46 |
Ohio Edison Co | Midwest | 1028167.00 | 127.36 | 97.40 | -23.52 | 553.29 |
Ohio Power Co | Midwest | 1455994.00 | 297.72 | 203.40 | -31.68 | 1003.63 |
Oncor Electric Delivery Company LLC | South | 3296879.00 | 398.70 | 278.10 | -30.25 | 914.99 |
Pacific Gas & Electric Co | West_Coast | 5446629.00 | 133.51 | 147.20 | 10.26 | 105.20 |
PacifiCorp | Mountain | 553946.00 | 200.78 | 271.03 | 34.99 | 1224.10 |
PECO Energy Co | East_Coast | 1705704.00 | 105.84 | 472.75 | 346.65 | 120163.19 |
Pennsylvania Power Co | East_Coast | 159612.00 | 139.93 | 105.40 | -24.68 | 608.91 |
Portland General Electric Co | West_Coast | 853578.00 | 96.28 | 127.00 | 31.90 | 1017.89 |
Potomac Electric Power Co | East_Coast | 478740.00 | 212.74 | 128.11 | -39.78 | 1582.51 |
PPL Electric Utilities Corp | East_Coast | 1395325.00 | 137.81 | 170.00 | 23.35 | 545.40 |
Public Service Co of Colorado | High_Plains | 1323861.00 | 198.38 | 108.00 | -45.56 | 2075.62 |
Public Service Co of NM | Mountain | 514831.00 | 106.74 | 0.00 | -100.00 | 10000.00 |
Public Service Co of Oklahoma | South | 540140.00 | 157.41 | 280.30 | 78.07 | 6094.34 |
PUD No 1 of Clark County - (WA) | West_Coast | 187337.00 | 62.66 | 111.05 | 77.22 | 5962.58 |
Puget Sound Energy Inc | West_Coast | 1114074.00 | 366.69 | 604.00 | 64.72 | 4188.30 |
Rappahannock Electric Coop | East_Coast | 155397.00 | 239.12 | 132.85 | -44.44 | 1975.08 |
Sawnee Electric Membership Corporation | Southeast | 155906.00 | 87.70 | 50.00 | -42.99 | 1848.12 |
Shenandoah Valley Elec Coop | East_Coast | 89984.00 | 289.71 | 158.00 | -45.46 | 2066.94 |
Snapping Shoals El Member Corp | Southeast | 95113.00 | 169.81 | 64.84 | -61.82 | 3821.48 |
Southern California Edison Co | West_Coast | 4977729.00 | 139.14 | 82.00 | -41.07 | 1686.45 |
Southwestern Electric Power Co | South | 189275.00 | 406.30 | 512.10 | 26.04 | 678.01 |
Southwestern Public Service Co | South | 197014.00 | 144.99 | 120.22 | -17.09 | 291.93 |
Tampa Electric Co | Southeast | 724911.00 | 198.38 | 79.12 | -60.12 | 3614.04 |
The Narragansett Electric Co | New_England | 485428.00 | 171.26 | 782.90 | 357.15 | 127558.21 |
The Potomac Edison Company | East_Coast | 196672.00 | 305.53 | 332.81 | 8.93 | 79.72 |
The Toledo Edison Co | Midwest | 301986.00 | 237.54 | 104.55 | -55.99 | 3134.43 |
Tri-County Electric Coop, Inc | South | 98139.00 | 69.53 | 46.28 | -33.44 | 1118.12 |
Tucson Electric Power Co | Mountain | 421315.00 | 55.47 | 59.44 | 7.16 | 51.22 |
UNS Electric, Inc | Mountain | 93447.00 | 90.67 | 57.25 | -36.86 | 1358.52 |
West Penn Power Company | East_Coast | 711915.00 | 241.86 | 130.25 | -46.15 | 2129.42 |
Western Massachusetts Electric Company | New_England | 213677.00 | 129.75 | 166.11 | 28.02 | 785.40 |
Wisconsin Electric Power Co | Midwest | 1112181.00 | 66.56 | 89.00 | 33.72 | 1137.05 |
Wisconsin Public Service Corp | Midwest | 442227.00 | 306.17 | 179.00 | -41.54 | 1725.24 |
Withlacoochee River Elec Coop | Southeast | 208761.00 | 139.93 | 103.13 | -26.30 | 691.60 |