Slides at rpubs.com/robinlovelace
Context (see the 'CWIS' report)
The propensity to cycle tool
Source: Lovelace et al. (2017)
The problem
The solution (Author's photo in Enter, NL)
Previous findings from literature
- Increased levels of physical activity can improve student learning (Shephard et al. 1984; Sallis et al. 1999)
- Cycling can account for around half of school commutes in cycling friendly cities (Bere et al. 2011)
- Strong evidence that segregated infrastructure along major school commute corridors can boost local cycling rates (Boarnet et al. 2005; McDonald et al. 2014)
- In the US \(\sim 40\%\) of students walked or cycled to school in 1969, \(\sim 13\%\) by 2001 (McDonald 2007)
- In the UK walking to school dropped \(\sim 20\%\) points in a similar period (1970 to 1991) (Tudor-Locke, Ainsworth, and Popkin 2012)
- UK baseline: 46% of 5-10 year-olds and 38% of 11-16 year-olds walking
- Walking dominates under 1 mile, car/bus 2+ miles (Department for Transport 2014)
School commuting and health
- Regular exercise has multiple, mutually reinforcing benefits
- US child/youth obesity rates have reached 17% (Fryar, Carroll, and Ogden 2012; Karnik and Kanekar 2012)
- 10–30% obesity rates in the EU (Ben-Sefer, Ben-Natan, and Ehrenfeld 2009)
- 60 minutes of daily moderate to vigorous physical activity recommended (Janssen and LeBlanc 2010; Strong et al. 2005)
- Part of the NHS Physical Activity Guidelines for Children and Young People (N.H.S. 2016)
- But (maybe people here know of more studies) more research needed
Input data
| Filtering | Level | N. rows | N. columns | Example var (num) | Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre | School | 17183 | 179 | Headcount Pupils | 316.0 |
| Post | School | 1534 | 179 | Headcount Pupils | 951.0 |
| Pre | OD pair | 908034 | 10 | Total Flow | 8.3 |
| Post | OD pair | 154593 | 10 | Total Flow | 9.4 |
Distribution of schools
The distribution of all Secondary-level schools with at least 100 pupils in England
Comparison of cycling to work and cycling to school
The observed cycling prevalence fractions for school commutes, and for work commutes (the latter were obtained from the 2011 Census).
Walking and cycling results
Choropleth showing the prevalence of walking (left) and cycling (right) as a fraction of total commuting for school commutes in England.
Modelling
\[ P(y_i = 1) = \mathrm{logit}^{-1} \left( \beta_1 d_i + \beta_2 d_i^{1/2} + \beta_3 d_i^2 + \beta_4 g_i + \beta_5 d_i g_i \right) \]
Model fit for UK data (distance)
The modelled vs observed cycling percentages, as a function of distance.
Model fit for UK data (gradient)
The modelled vs observed cycling percentages, as a function of gradient.
Uptake Scenarios (distance)
The cycling percentages observed, modelled, and projected under the Government Target and Go Dutch scenarios, as a function of distance.
Uptake Scenarios (gradient)
The cycling percentages observed, modelled, and projected under the Government Target and Go Dutch scenarios, as a function of gradient.
Headline figures
For trips < 15km (90%+ school commutes), the current percentage of children cycling to school in England is 2.7%.
Scenarios show the scale of transformation possible in school travel patterns: 'Going Dutch' would see over two-thirds of these children cycle to school, approaching the level observed in The Netherlands.
Higher than the 27% cycle mode share in an equivalent 'Go Dutch' scenario for cycling to work
Desire line level results
The desire-line level school commuting flows between LSOA centroids and Secondary schools in England.
Route network level results
Discussion
- Add primary schools
- Estimate environmental/economic benefits?
- System boundaries
What about 'cycle passenger' as a mode?
Source: Author's photo, Munster. Thanks Mark Padgham and Ezra!
Key References and questions
Abstract: https://icth.confex.com/icth/2017/schedule/papers/index.cgi?username=1989&password=741756
Lovelace, Robin, Anna Goodman, Rachel Aldred, Nikolai Berkoff, Ali Abbas, and James Woodcock. “The Propensity to Cycle Tool: An Open Source Online System for Sustainable Transport Planning.” Journal of Transport and Land Use 10, no. 1 (January 1, 2017). doi:10.5198/jtlu.2016.862.
Singleton, Alex. “A GIS Approach to Modelling CO2 Emissions Associated with the Pupil-School Commute.” International Journal of Geographical Information Science 28, no. 2 (November 2014): 256–273. doi:10.1080/13658816.2013.832765.
- Contact
- r.lovelace @ leeds.ac .uk
References
Ben-Sefer, E., M. Ben-Natan, and M. Ehrenfeld. 2009. “Childhood Obesity: Current Literature, Policy and Implications for Practice.” International Nursing Review 56 (2): 166–73. doi:10.1111/j.1466-7657.2008.00708.x.
Bere, Elling, Anke Oenema, Richard G. Prins, Stephen Seiler, and Johannes Brug. 2011. “Longitudinal Associations Between Cycling to School and Weight Status.” International Journal of Pediatric Obesity 6 (3-4): 182–87. doi:10.3109/17477166.2011.583656.
Boarnet, Marlon G., Craig L. Anderson, Kristen Day, Tracy McMillan, and Mariela Alfonzo. 2005. “Evaluation of the California Safe Routes to School Legislation.” American Journal of Preventive Medicine 28 (2): 134–40. doi:10.1016/j.amepre.2004.10.026.
Department for Transport. 2014. “National Travel Survey 2014: Travel to School.” https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/476635/travel-to-school.pdf.
Fryar, Cheryl, Margaret Carroll, and Cynthia Ogden. 2012. “Prevalence of Obesity Among Children and Adolescents: United States, Trends 1963–1965 Through 2009– 2010.” National Center for Health Statistics 1960, September. http://www.nccpeds.com/ContinuityModules-Fall/Fall%20Continuity%20Source%20Materials/Obesity-2009-10%20Trends.pdf.
Janssen, Ian, and Allana G LeBlanc. 2010. “Systematic Review of the Health Benefits of Physical Activity and Fitness in School-Aged Children and Youth.” The International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity 7 (May): 40. doi:10.1186/1479-5868-7-40.
Karnik, Sameera, and Amar Kanekar. 2012. “Childhood Obesity: A Global Public Health Crisis.” International Journal of Preventive Medicine 3 (1): 1–7. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3278864/.
McDonald, Noreen C. 2007. “Active Transportation to School: Trends Among U.S. Schoolchildren, 1969–2001.” American Journal of Preventive Medicine 32 (6): 509–16. doi:10.1016/j.amepre.2007.02.022.
McDonald, Noreen C., Ruth L. Steiner, Chanam Lee, Tori Rhoulac Smith, Xuemei Zhu, and Yizhao Yang. 2014. “Impact of the Safe Routes to School Program on Walking and Bicycling.” Journal of the American Planning Association 80 (2): 153–67. doi:10.1080/01944363.2014.956654.
N.H.S. 2016. “Physical Activity Guidelines for Young People - Live Well - NHS Choices.” http://www.nhs.uk/Livewell/fitness/Pages/physical-activity-guidelines-for-young-people.aspx.
Sallis, James F., Thomas L. McKenzie, Bohdan Kolody, Michael Lewis, Simon Marshall, and Paul Rosengard. 1999. “Effects of Health-Related Physical Education on Academic Achievement: Project SPARK.” Research Quarterly for Exercise and Sport 70 (2): 127–34. doi:10.1080/02701367.1999.10608030.
Shephard, R. J., M. Volle, H. Lavallée, R. LaBarre, J. C. Jéquier, and M. Rajic. 1984. “Required Physical Activity and Academic Grades: A Controlled Study.” In Children and Sport, edited by Dr Juhani Ilmarinen and Prof Ilkka Välimäki, 58–63. Springer Berlin Heidelberg. http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-642-69465-3_8.
Strong, William B., Robert M. Malina, Cameron J. R. Blimkie, Stephen R. Daniels, Rodney K. Dishman, Bernard Gutin, Albert C. Hergenroeder, et al. 2005. “Evidence Based Physical Activity for School-Age Youth.” The Journal of Pediatrics 146 (6): 732–37. doi:10.1016/j.jpeds.2005.01.055.
Tudor-Locke, Catrine, Barbara E. Ainsworth, and Barry M. Popkin. 2012. “Active Commuting to School.” Sports Medicine 31 (5): 309–13. doi:10.2165/00007256-200131050-00001.