A shiny app to explore opinions of experts regarding relevant sources of uncertainty in modelling Bluefin tuna

Polina Levontin
25 April 2017

https://pl202.shinyapps.io/bluefinuncertainty/

Bluefin Tuna

Modelling bluefin tuna involves many uncertainties, but only a fraction of those uncertainties that experts consider relevant are fully included in quantitative assessments.

In 2011 and 2012, we conducted an elicitation involving experts on how they view various uncertainties. Three aspects were elcited:

  • Beliefs about importance
  • Beliefs about potential for research to reduce variability
  • Beliefs about a degree to which each source is already accounted for in modelling.

Experts

In general, there was not much consensus amongst the various experts.

The shiny app allows exploration of responses of a group of experts, most of whom are scientists, but some are NGO representatives or fisheries managers.

They were asked about many sources of uncertainty, which can be previewed in the select input drop down menu of the app.

Visualisations

After selecting a source of uncertainty of interest, a user must press a 'Submit' button to display responses pertainting to this specific source of uncertainty (grey scale graph below shows an example).

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A jitter type of graph is used. Points in the top right corner represent those sources of uncertainty which are considered by some experts to be most important but which lack representation in the current models.

All uncertainities combined

The second graph displays all sources at once, depicting a lack of strong patterns; different colours represent different sources of uncertaity.

Further details are found in Leach et al. 2014: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X14000827

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