Pooling the Poles
pooled polling trends and seat estimates for Polish parties
May 16, 2017
Ben Stanley, SWPS.
(bstanley@swps.edu.pl; @BDStanley)
Notes: The figure for Law and Justice (PiS) includes support for two minor parties, United Poland (SP) and Poland Together (PR). Wolność (W) was formerly named KORWiN.
Latest national estimates
Estimate of mandates gained
National polling trends
National polling trends (parliamentary parties)
National polling trends (minor parties)
Seats per constituency
| PiS | PO | Kukiz | N | SLD | PSL | W | Razem | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legnica | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wałbrzych | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wrocław | 5 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bydgoszcz | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Toruń | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lublin | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chełm | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zielona Góra | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Łódź | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Piotrków Trybunalski | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sieradz | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chrzanów | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kraków | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nowy Sącz | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tarnów | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Płock | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Radom | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Siedlce | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Warszawa I | 6 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Warszawa II | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Opole | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Krosno | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rzeszów | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Białystok | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gdańsk | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gdynia | 5 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bielsko-Biała | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Częstochowa | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gliwice | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rybnik | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Katowice | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sosnowiec | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kielce | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elbląg | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Olsztyn | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kalisz | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Konin | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Piła | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Poznań | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Koszalin | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Szczecin | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |