US WEATHER EVENTS HEALTH/ECONCOMIC IMPACTS

15/04/2017. CvP.

0. Synopsis:

This report analyzes the impact of the different weather events as registered in the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) hsitoric storm database. In particular two main impacts are tracked:

Human health impact, measured as number of overall fatalities registered as a direct consequence of the indicated events. Tornados show up here as a major threat for human integrity.

Economic impact, measured as the combined direct effects of property damages and crops damages.While floods and hurricanes stand as the top 2 combined economic impact it is remarkable the influence of droughts in crops.

1. Data Processing

Libraries:

Dplyr, Ggplot2, Knitr libraries are used in this analysis.

library(dplyr)
## 
## Attaching package: 'dplyr'
## The following objects are masked from 'package:stats':
## 
##     filter, lag
## The following objects are masked from 'package:base':
## 
##     intersect, setdiff, setequal, union
library(ggplot2)
library(knitr)

Loading and preprocessing the data.

It assumes files are in the current working directory. Data dowloaded 15/04/2017 from “https://d396qusza40orc.cloudfront.net/repdata%2Fdata%2FStormData.csv.bz2

noaa <- read.csv("repdata%2Fdata%2FStormData.csv")

Property damage is processed in order to show all ammounts in KUSD. Full impact is the result of adding up Property and Crops damage. Any data item on the ‘EXP’‘s columns different than K/k, M/m, B/b is taken as ’0’ (no relevant for the analysis).

resolveunits <- function (Dmg, DmgExp)
        {
        if (grepl("[Kk]", DmgExp)) 
                return(Dmg) 
        else if (grepl("[Mm]", DmgExp)) 
                return(Dmg*1000) 
        else if (grepl("[Bb]", DmgExp)) 
                return(Dmg*1000000) 
        else
                return(0)
        }

noaa$PDMG <- mapply(resolveunits, noaa$PROPDMG, noaa$PROPDMGEXP)
noaa$CDMG <- mapply(resolveunits, noaa$CROPDMG, noaa$CROPDMGEXP)
noaa$TDMG <- noaa$PDMG + noaa$CDMG

2. Results

Human health damage

The 10 event types with more fatalities are selected here. Fatalities are considered the right criteria to measure human health damage. Table 1 below shows as well the injuries linked to each event type.

noaahlth <- noaa %>% group_by(EVTYPE) %>% summarize(FAT=sum(FATALITIES), INJ=sum(INJURIES)) %>% arrange(desc(FAT))
noaahlth <- noaahlth[1:10,]

Prepares the summarized data and plots it:

noaahlth$EVTYPE <- factor(noaahlth$EVTYPE, levels = noaahlth$EVTYPE[order(noaahlth$FAT, decreasing=TRUE)])
g <-    ggplot(noaahlth, aes(x=EVTYPE, y=FAT)) + 
        theme_bw() +
        geom_bar(size=0.8, colour="black", fill="blue", stat="identity") +
        xlab("Event Type") +
        ylab("Fatalities") + 
        ggtitle("NOAA: Events most harmful to population health") +
        theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1)) +
        theme(plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5))
print(g)

Following table (Table1) shows as well the injured individuals for each type of event above

names(noaahlth) <- c("Event Type","Fatalities","Injured")
kable(noaahlth)
Event Type Fatalities Injured
TORNADO 5633 91346
EXCESSIVE HEAT 1903 6525
FLASH FLOOD 978 1777
HEAT 937 2100
LIGHTNING 816 5230
TSTM WIND 504 6957
FLOOD 470 6789
RIP CURRENT 368 232
HIGH WIND 248 1137
AVALANCHE 224 170

Economic damage

A Top 10 table of the event types with more econcomic damage is shown next. Property + Crops damage is considered the right criteria to measure economic damage, however a brief discussion on injured individuals follows.

noaadmg <-      noaa %>% 
                group_by(EVTYPE) %>% 
                summarize(
                        PDMG=sum(PDMG),
                        CDMG=sum(CDMG),
                        TDMG=sum(TDMG)) %>% 
                arrange(desc(TDMG))
noaadmg <- noaadmg[1:10,]

Prepares the Top 10 Event/Fatalities summarized data and plots it.

noaadmg$EVTYPE <- factor(noaadmg$EVTYPE, levels = noaadmg$EVTYPE[order(noaadmg$TDMG, decreasing=TRUE)])
g <-    ggplot(noaadmg, aes(x=EVTYPE, y=TDMG)) + 
        theme_bw() +
        geom_bar(size=0.8, colour="black", fill="red",stat="identity") +
        xlab("Event Type") +
        ylab("Property & Crops damage in thousands of USD") + 
        ggtitle("NOAA: Events with greatest economic consequences (KUSD)") +
        theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1)) +
        theme(plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5))
print(g)

The following table (Table2) shows the direct property damage impact in USD of each type of event above.

names(noaadmg) <- c("Event Type","Property Damage (KUSD)", "Crops Damage (KUSD)", "Total Damage (KUSD)")
kable(noaadmg)
Event Type Property Damage (KUSD) Crops Damage (KUSD) Total Damage (KUSD)
FLOOD 144657710 5661968.5 150319678
HURRICANE/TYPHOON 69305840 2607872.8 71913713
TORNADO 56937160 414953.1 57352114
STORM SURGE 43323536 5.0 43323541
HAIL 15732267 3025954.5 18758221
FLASH FLOOD 16140812 1421317.1 17562129
DROUGHT 1046106 13972566.0 15018672
HURRICANE 11868319 2741910.0 14610229
RIVER FLOOD 5118946 5029459.0 10148405
ICE STORM 3944928 5022113.5 8967041

3. Interpretation

Human Health impact

Tornados seem to be a major threat for human life/integrity. Followed by Excessive Heat both fatalities and injured individuals are much lower. Heat and Floods add up an important number of injured individuals.

Economic impact

Floods followed by Hurricanes and Tornados are the three main events impacting economics of the involved regions. It is remarkable the impact of Droughts in crops exceeding by far the impact of the top three weather events as listed above.

END-OF-REPORT