24 March 2017

Introduction

This presentation is a look at the party vote for Internet MANA and the turnout at the 2014 New Zealand General Election.

Definitions

For this presentation:

the party vote is the number of list votes cast for Internet MANA; and

the turnout is the numbers of votes cast in an electorate as a percentage of the number of enrolled voters in that electorate.

Sources of Data

What We Will Look At

  1. A plot of the party vote received by Internet MANA in each electorate, indicating whether the electorate is:

  • a Maori electorate (Maori);

  • a General electorate in which an Internet Party or MANA Movement candidate stood (General Candidate); or

  • a General electorate in which no Internet Party or MANA Movement candidate stood (General No Candidate).

  1. A test to see whether in the General electorates the party vote was significantly higher where Internet MANA stood a candidate.

  2. The party vote and turnout in each electorate.

Internet MANA Party Votes in Each Electorate

Observation

It seems that in general the Internet MANA party vote was better in the General electorates where a candidate stood (Northland was a notable exception).

Was the Party Vote Significantly Greater Where We Stood Candidates?

Overall

The average Internet MANA party vote in General electorates was:

## [1] 294.2656

and the standard deviation was:

## [1] 116.7782

But Where We Stood Candidates

## [1] 25

electorates and they received an average of

## [1] 370

votes each.

The Test

Since there were fewer than 30 candidates we should use a t test. The result of the t test is:

## 
##  Welch Two Sample t-test
## 
## data:  IMvotes_2014[IMvotes_2014[, 2] == " General Candidate", ]$party_vote and +IMvotes_2014[1:64, ]$party_vote
## t = 2.6701, df = 42.316, p-value = 0.005356
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is greater than 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
##  28.03559      Inf
## sample estimates:
## mean of x mean of y 
##  370.0000  294.2656

That is the average vote where we stood candidates in General electorates was significantly greater than the average Internet MANA party votes in General electorates overall.

Party Vote and Turnout

Clusters

There seem to be three clusters:

  1. the Maori electorates;

  2. four general electorates with a turnout of about 70%;

  3. the other General electorates.

Conclusions - Where to Next?

  • The party vote was highest in the Maori electorates.

  • The party vote in the General electorate was significantly higher where there was a candidate for MANA or the Internet Party.

  • It would be good to investigate why there was a low party vote and only about 70% turnout in the South Auckland electorates of Mangere, Manukau East and Manurewa.

Review