Data sources

Finland. Immigrations and Public Finances in Finland Part I: Realized Fiscal Revenues and Expenditures.
Denmark. Indvandreres nettobidrag til de offentlige finanser
IQ. Lynn and Vanhanen (2012).
Islam. Pew Research (2011).
S scores for Denmark. Educational attainment, income, use of social benefits, crime rate and the general socioeconomic factor among 70 immigrant groups in Denmark

Start

#packages
library(pacman)
p_load(kirkegaard, readr, dplyr)

#data
fin = read_csv("data/finland.csv") %>%
  mutate(
    ISO = pu_translate(Country)
    )

## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
##   Country = col_character(),
##   fin_net_fiscal_contribution = col_integer()
## )

mega = read_csv("data/Megadataset_v2.0p.csv") %>% 
  rename(
    ISO = X1
  )

## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
##   .default = col_double(),
##   X1 = col_character(),
##   EthnicHeterogenityVanhanen2012 = col_integer(),
##   EthnicConflictVanhanen2012 = col_integer(),
##   SlowTimePrefWangetal2011 = col_integer(),
##   Math00Mean = col_integer(),
##   Math00SD = col_integer(),
##   Read00Mean = col_integer(),
##   Read00SD = col_integer(),
##   Sci00Mean = col_integer(),
##   Sci00SD = col_integer(),
##   Math03Mean = col_integer(),
##   Math03SD = col_integer(),
##   Read03Mean = col_integer(),
##   Read03SD = col_integer(),
##   Sci03Mean = col_integer(),
##   Sci03SD = col_integer(),
##   PS03Mean = col_integer(),
##   PS03SD = col_integer(),
##   Read09.Native = col_integer(),
##   Read09.1g = col_integer()
##   # ... with 102 more columns
## )

## See spec(...) for full column specifications.

dnk = read_csv("data/denmark.csv")

## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
##   ISO = col_character(),
##   dnk_net_fiscal_contribution = col_double()
## )

#merge data
d = dplyr::full_join(mega, fin[-1], by = "ISO") %>% full_join(dnk, by = "ISO")

#add some synnonyms/extra
d %<>% mutate(
  name = pu_translate(ISO, reverse = T),
  dk_fiscal = dnk_net_fiscal_contribution*1000/7.44,
  fi_fiscal = fin_net_fiscal_contribution,
  dk_S = S.factor.in.Denmark.Kirkegaard2014,
  Muslim_pct = Muslim*100
)

## No match: Africa

## No match: Asia

## No match: ASM

## No match: BELFL

## No match: BELFR

## No match: BIF

## No match: CHA

## No match: Eastern-Europe

## No match: MCA

## No match: MIC

## No match: MIR

## No match: North America and Oceania

## No match: PRI

## No match: SAS

## No match: South and Middle America

## No match: SRP

## No match: VGB

## No match: VIR

## No match: Western-Europe

Plots

Plot the main analyses of interest.

#compare DK FI
GG_scatter(d, "dk_fiscal", "fi_fiscal", case_names = "name", check_overlap = F) +
  scale_x_continuous("Denmark: Net fiscal contribution\n(euro/year)", limits = c(NA, 10000), breaks = seq(-20000, 10000, by = 5000)) + 
  scale_y_continuous("Finland: Net fiscal contribution\n(euro/year)", breaks = seq(-15000, 2500, 2500), limits = c(-15000, 2500))

GG_save("figures/dk_fi.png")

## FINLAND
#IQ
GG_scatter(d, "IQ", "fi_fiscal", case_names = "name", check_overlap = F) +
  scale_x_continuous("Origin country IQ", breaks = seq(70, 110, by = 5)) +
  scale_y_continuous("Finland: Net fiscal contribution\n(euro/year)", breaks = seq(-15000, 2500, 2500))

GG_save("figures/finland_IQ_fiscal.png")

#Islam
GG_scatter(d, "Muslim", "fi_fiscal", case_names = "name", check_overlap = F) +
  scale_x_continuous("Origin country Muslim%", labels = scales::percent) +
  scale_y_continuous("Finland: Net fiscal contribution\n(euro/year)", breaks = seq(-15000, 2500, 2500))

GG_save("figures/finland_Muslim_fiscal.png")

##DENMARK
#IQ
GG_scatter(d, "IQ", "dk_fiscal", case_names = "name", check_overlap = T) +
  scale_x_continuous("Origin country IQ", breaks = seq(70, 110, by = 5)) +
  scale_y_continuous("Denmark: Net fiscal contribution\n(euro/year)") + 
GG_save("figures/denmark_IQ_fiscal.png")

#Islam
GG_scatter(d, "Muslim", "dk_fiscal", case_names = "name", check_overlap = T) +
  scale_x_continuous("Origin country Muslim%", labels = scales::percent) +
  scale_y_continuous("Denmark: Net fiscal contribution\n(euro/year)") + 
GG_save("figures/denmark_Muslim_fiscal.png")

#map to S
GG_scatter(d, "S.factor.in.Denmark.Kirkegaard2014", "dk_fiscal", case_names = "name", check_overlap = T) +
  scale_x_continuous("S factor (general socioeconomic factor)") +
  scale_y_continuous("Denmark: Net fiscal contribution\n(euro/year)") + 
GG_save("figures/denmark_S_fiscal.png")

#without Syria
d %>%
  filter(ISO != "SYR") %>% 
  .[c("S.factor.in.Denmark.Kirkegaard2014", "dk_fiscal")] %>% 
  cor_matrix(CI = .95)

##                                    S.factor.in.Denmark.Kirkegaard2014
## S.factor.in.Denmark.Kirkegaard2014 "1"                               
## dk_fiscal                          "0.90 [0.80 0.95]"                
##                                    dk_fiscal         
## S.factor.in.Denmark.Kirkegaard2014 "0.90 [0.80 0.95]"
## dk_fiscal                          "1"

Modeling

Here we calculate the coefficients, so we can say exactly how much 1 IQ/1% more Muslims is/are worth.

#we do these so we can can mention the specific costs per Muslim% and IQ point

#finland
lm(fi_fiscal ~ IQ, data = d) %>% MOD_summary(standardize = F, kfold = F)

## 
##     ---- Model summary ----    
## Model coefficients
##        Beta       SE CI_lower CI_upper
## IQ 470.0969 100.7806 242.1153 698.0785
## 
## 
## Model meta-data
##     outcome  N df       R2   R2-adj. R2-cv
## 1 fi_fiscal 11  9 0.707394 0.6748822    NA
## 
## 
## Etas from analysis of variance
##          Eta Eta_partial
## IQ 0.8410672   0.8410672

lm(fi_fiscal ~ Muslim_pct, data = d) %>% MOD_summary(standardize = F, kfold = F)

## 
##     ---- Model summary ----    
## Model coefficients
##                Beta       SE  CI_lower CI_upper
## Muslim_pct -86.0832 25.44487 -143.6435 -28.5229
## 
## 
## Model meta-data
##     outcome  N df        R2   R2-adj. R2-cv
## 1 fi_fiscal 11  9 0.5598062 0.5108958    NA
## 
## 
## Etas from analysis of variance
##                 Eta Eta_partial
## Muslim_pct 0.748202    0.748202

#denmark
lm(dk_fiscal ~ IQ, data = d) %>% MOD_summary(standardize = F, kfold = F)

## 
##     ---- Model summary ----    
## Model coefficients
##        Beta       SE CI_lower CI_upper
## IQ 917.2366 176.6732 556.4217 1278.051
## 
## 
## Model meta-data
##     outcome  N df       R2 R2-adj. R2-cv
## 1 dk_fiscal 32 30 0.473258  0.4557    NA
## 
## 
## Etas from analysis of variance
##          Eta Eta_partial
## IQ 0.6879375   0.6879375

lm(dk_fiscal ~ Muslim_pct, data = d) %>% MOD_summary(standardize = F, kfold = F)

## 
##     ---- Model summary ----    
## Model coefficients
##                 Beta      SE  CI_lower  CI_upper
## Muslim_pct -187.5798 32.1122 -253.1616 -121.9979
## 
## 
## Model meta-data
##     outcome  N df        R2  R2-adj. R2-cv
## 1 dk_fiscal 32 30 0.5321403 0.516545    NA
## 
## 
## Etas from analysis of variance
##                  Eta Eta_partial
## Muslim_pct 0.7294795   0.7294795

#dispersion
d$dk_fiscal %>% describe

##    vars  n     mean       sd   median  trimmed     mad       min      max
## X1    1 32 -2471.02 10603.73 -1129.03 -1395.78 7771.69 -39717.74 11827.96
##      range  skew kurtosis      se
## X1 51545.7 -1.35     2.63 1874.49

d$fi_fiscal %>% describe

##    vars  n     mean      sd median trimmed     mad    min  max range skew
## X1    1 11 -4625.45 5083.34  -3900   -4320 3409.98 -14000 2000 16000 -0.7
##    kurtosis      se
## X1    -0.81 1532.68

The net fiscal contribution of immigrants by country of origin: data from Denmark and Finland

Emil O. W. Kirkegaard & you???

Data sources

Start

Plots

Modeling