Problem

In the previous topics we discussed US presidents statistics by estimating means of variables (https://rpubs.com/alex-lev/245212). We have solved classification problem for the president’s party (https://rpubs.com/alex-lev/246843).

This time we use data for the purpose of multivariate analysis through chernoff faces (See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernoff_face).

Some interesting results will be obtained in the end.

Data

Here are some notes about data origins. OIL - Annual Average Domestic Crude Oil Prices (in $/Barrel) Inflation Adjusted to August 2016 (http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Table.asp).

Inflation rate (%) - http://www.multpl.com/inflation/table.

Unemployment rate (%)- http://www.multpl.com/unemployment/table, GDP growth (%)-http://www.multpl.com/us-gdp-growth-rate/table/by-year.

AWH (Average Weekly Hours) - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PRS84006021

SSN (Average sun spot number by year) - http://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles.

uspres<-read.table(file="uspres.txt")
uspres[,c(5:7,9:10)]
##             Inflation Unemployment   GDP AWH   OIL
## Trump            2.07          4.7  2.94 0.4 34.13
## Obama2           1.59          8.0  4.31 0.2 94.25
## Obama1           0.03          7.8  0.11 0.8 59.93
## Bush-2           2.97          5.3  6.52 0.1 61.65
## Bush-1           3.73          4.2  2.19 1.5 31.30
## Clinton2         3.04          5.3  6.05 0.3 27.98
## Clinton1         3.26          7.3  5.00 0.6 27.94
## Bush             4.67          5.4  6.48 0.5 35.60
## Reagan2          3.53          7.5  7.37 0.2 60.27
## Reagan1         11.83          7.5  9.69 0.5 94.83
## Carter           5.22          7.5 11.88 0.9 57.20
## Ford             9.39          5.1  8.38 2.1 45.60
## Nixon2           3.65          4.9 11.04 0.3 25.56
## Nixon1           4.40          3.4  7.28 0.8 21.81
## Johnson          0.97          4.9 10.70 0.4 23.00
## Kennedy          1.71          6.6  7.48 0.1 22.96
## Eisenhower2      2.99          4.2  3.12 2.1 26.90
## Eisenhower1      0.38          2.9  1.39 1.0 26.23
## Truman2          1.27          4.3 -3.46 1.0 28.02
## Truman1          2.30          3.0 76.35 0.5 19.80

Chernoff faces

library(aplpack)
## Loading required package: tcltk
faces(uspres[,c(5:7,9:10)],scale = T, main="US president's chernoff faces")

## effect of variables:
##  modified item       Var           
##  "height of face   " "Inflation"   
##  "width of face    " "Unemployment"
##  "structure of face" "GDP"         
##  "height of mouth  " "AWH"         
##  "width of mouth   " "OIL"         
##  "smiling          " "Inflation"   
##  "height of eyes   " "Unemployment"
##  "width of eyes    " "GDP"         
##  "height of hair   " "AWH"         
##  "width of hair   "  "OIL"         
##  "style of hair   "  "Inflation"   
##  "height of nose  "  "Unemployment"
##  "width of nose   "  "GDP"         
##  "width of ear    "  "AWH"         
##  "height of ear   "  "OIL"

Conclusions

  1. We see B.Obama’s faces in the aspect of unemployment - width of face.
  2. We see R.Reagan’s faces in the aspect of inflation he took and returned - hairs up and down.
  3. We see D.Trump face very similiar to L.Johnson or W.Clinton in the second term. His face is red similar to Truman (Hirosima and Nagasaki), Eisenhower (Korea) and Nixon (Vietnam). Does it mean war?!