Pooling the Poles

pooled polling trends and seat estimates for Polish parties

August 15, 2014

Ben Stanley, University of Sussex

(B.Stanley@sussex.ac.uk; @BDStanley)

Source: author’s own dataset of polls published by CBOS, Homo Homini, Millward Brown and TNS Polska

Latest national estimates

Pooled trends based on polls from CBOS, Homo Homini, Millward Brown and TNS Polska.

Region-weighted estimate of seat shares and coalition strengths

Pooled trends based on polls from CBOS, Homo Homini, Millward Brown and TNS Polska.

National polling trends

Pooled trends based on polls from CBOS, Homo Homini, Millward Brown and TNS Polska.

Long term national polling trends (parties elected to parliament in 2011)

$Pooled trends based on polls from CBOS, Homo Homini, Millward Brown and TNS Polska.$

Long term “don’t know” trend

Pooled trends based on polls from CBOS, Homo Homini, Millward Brown and TNS Polska.

House effects

Pooled trends based on polls from CBOS, Homo Homini, Millward Brown and TNS Polska.