The turnover ratio / turnover difference has often been considered a significant advantage within a NFL game. This presentation intends to show evidence to support this claim.

• Analyzed NFL game results 2010-2015 (1792 Games)
  • Including post-season
• Data from created instance of Burnt Sushi database (https://github.com/BurntSushi/nflgame)
• All game stats viewed relative to home team

• Model (intercept, slope) shows a 4.6 proportional point change per turnover.
  • 2.1584838, 4.637226
• Home team has a 2.2 point advantage.
• Between 2010-2015 no home team has lost with +4 Turnover advantage.
  • 74 Out of 1792 games

Winning the turnover battle greatly improves a team's chance of winning.