Prediksi Tingkat Karyawan yang keluar

Ini adalah data dari jumlah karyawan yang keluar secara sukarela dari sebuah perusahaan, periode waktu 2013-1015. Manajemen meminta diprediksi pada tahun 2016 bagaimana tingkat karyawan yang keluar secara sukarela

## Loading required package: zoo
## 
## Attaching package: 'zoo'
## The following objects are masked from 'package:base':
## 
##     as.Date, as.Date.numeric
## Loading required package: timeDate
## This is forecast 7.3

Hasil Prediksi

Ini Hasil prediksi menggunakan ARIMA

##    Point Forecast     Lo 80    Hi 80      Lo 95    Hi 95
## 37       35.42028 19.827185 51.01337 11.5726999 59.26786
## 38       32.82310 16.018541 49.62765  7.1227463 58.52345
## 39       34.99891 17.527332 52.47049  8.2784365 61.71939
## 40       34.89228 14.902632 54.88193  4.3207508 65.46381
## 41       34.00077 12.635103 55.36645  1.3247994 66.67675
## 42       34.55697 12.187838 56.92610  0.3463349 68.76760
## 43       34.62934 10.839105 58.41958 -1.7546857 71.01337
## 44       34.34451  9.351879 59.33714 -3.8784189 72.56744
## 45       34.47562  8.448482 60.50275 -5.3294505 74.28068
## 46       34.52537  7.387980 61.66276 -6.9776859 76.02842

Simple exponential - models level

##    Point Forecast    Lo 80    Hi 80     Lo 95    Hi 95
## 37       35.25507 19.65074 50.85940 11.390308 59.11984
## 38       35.25507 18.86196 51.64818 10.183978 60.32617
## 39       35.25507 18.10944 52.40071  9.033085 61.47706
## 40       35.25507 17.38858 53.12157  7.930624 62.57952
## 41       35.25507 16.69569 53.81445  6.870952 63.63919
## 42       35.25507 16.02776 54.48238  5.849441 64.66070
## 43       35.25507 15.38227 55.12787  4.862244 65.64790
## 44       35.25507 14.75709 55.75305  3.906120 66.60402
## 45       35.25507 14.15043 56.35971  2.978306 67.53184
## 46       35.25507 13.56072 56.94942  2.076427 68.43372

### Double exponential - models level

##    Point Forecast    Lo 80    Hi 80     Lo 95    Hi 95
## 37       35.25507 19.65074 50.85940 11.390308 59.11984
## 38       35.25507 18.86196 51.64818 10.183978 60.32617
## 39       35.25507 18.10944 52.40071  9.033085 61.47706
## 40       35.25507 17.38858 53.12157  7.930624 62.57952
## 41       35.25507 16.69569 53.81445  6.870952 63.63919
## 42       35.25507 16.02776 54.48238  5.849441 64.66070
## 43       35.25507 15.38227 55.12787  4.862244 65.64790
## 44       35.25507 14.75709 55.75305  3.906120 66.60402
## 45       35.25507 14.15043 56.35971  2.978306 67.53184
## 46       35.25507 13.56072 56.94942  2.076427 68.43372