Predictions
Prediction of the winning presidential candidate in each state and the District of Columbia:
- Alabama:
- Trump
- Alaska:
- Trump
- Arizona:
- Trump
- Arkansas:
- Trump
- California:
- Clinton
- Colorado:
- Clinton
- Connecticut:
- Clinton
- Delaware:
- Clinton
- Florida:
- Clinton
- Georgia:
- Trump
- Hawaii:
- Clinton
- Idaho:
- Trump
- Illinois:
- Clinton
- Indiana
- Trump
- Iowa
- Trump
- Kansas
- Trump
- Kentucky:
- Trump
- Louisiana:
- Trump
- Maine:
- Clinton
- Maryland:
- Clinton
- Massachusetts:
- Clinton
- Michigan:
- Clinton
- Minnesota:
- Clinton
- Mississippi:
- Trump
- Missouri:
- Trump
- Montana:
- Trump
- Nebraska:
- Trump
- Nevada:
- Clinton
- New Hampshire:
- Clinton
- New Jersey:
- Clinton
- New Mexico:
- Clinton
- New York:
- Clinton
- North Carolina:
- Clinton
- North Dakota:
- Trump
- Ohio:
- Trump
- Oklahoma:
- Trump
- Oregon:
- Clinton
- Pennsylvania:
- Clinton
- Rhode Island:
- Clinton
- South Carolina:
- Trump
- South Dakota:
- Trump
- Tennessee:
- Trump
- Texas:
- Trump
- Utah :
- Trump
- Vermont:
- Clinton
- Virginia:
- Clinton
- Washington:
- Clinton
- West Virginia:
- Trump
- Wisconsin:
- Clinton
- Wyoming:
- Trump
- District of Columbia:
- Clinton
Prediction of the final percentage (rounded to the tenths place) of the popular vote for …
- Hillary Clinton: 47.8%
- Gary Johnson:
- 6.4%
- Jill Stein:
- 4.2%
- Donald Trump:
- 41.6%
Description of methods used to make state predictions.
To find the percent of popular vote for each candidate, we found several polls that were similar in the method they used and the amount of people they surveyed. Once we found these polls, we looked at the percentage for each candidate on each of the polls. After this, we took the percentages from all the polls for a certain candidate and determined the average. For example, if one poll said that that Mickey Mouse had 50% of the popular vote and then another poll said he had 60% of the popular vote, then we would beleive he had 55% of the popular vote. We found 3 different polls that stated the current winner for every state as well as the District of Columbia. There were multiple polls because if one poll said that a certain state favored one candidate but the other two favored another one, we would use the majority rule and use the candidate that was listed more. For states that were moderate, the outcome can change anytime, so we looked at previous polls for elections and found the political party trend that the state usually favored. We used the elections of 2012 and 2008 so that it was more accurate in predicting the winner of the current 2016 election, results may vary.
Sources
- source 1:
- the first source
- Here are the polls we used to determine the popular vote for each candidate.
- source 2:
- the second source
- We used the poll of this website to determine the winner of each state.
- Source 3:
- the third source -We used the poll of this website to determine the winner of each state.
- Source 4:
- the fourth source
- We used the poll of this website to determine the winner of each state.
- source 5:
- the fifth source
- This displays the winner of each state for the 2012 election.
- source 6:
- the sixth source
- This displays the winner of each state for the 2008 election.
It is highly suggested that you also submit this to the ASA for the contest.
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