- The origins of transport modelling
- Transport models vs cycling
- An open source approach
Cycling and Society Conference, 2016-09-29, Lancaster, UK.
Structure of the talk
Tools for the trade
Premises
- We live in a car dominated system
- Transport models are leverage points in the transport system
- 'Systemic' change is a long process and involves institutional change (Beddoe et al. 2009)
- Leverage points such as models can speed-up the transition
- Software for transport models is more accessible than ever
Institutional structures I: Board
Source: Department for Transport
Institutional structures II: Roads Traffic and Local Group
Institutional structures III: Local Transport
Institutional structures
A root cause of the 'problem'
The origins of transport modelling
Inspiration for this section
Forecasting urban travel
- Book by Boyce and Williams (2015)
Origins of Transport planning
Credit: Crispin Cooper. See cardiff.ac.uk/sdna/
The origins of modelling
- "urban travel forecasting was definitely 'where the action was' for young transportation engineers and planners entering the field in the 1960s" (Boyce and Williams 2015, 67).
- heavily restricted by computing power
- no consideration of walking or cycling
Transport models vs cycling
Transport planning tools: expensive…
And potentially dangerous!
Source: Who will save us from transport models (Hollander 2015)
See also work by Robert Bain
Tools for transport planning I
Source: Pixton.com
- Are black boxes
Tools for transport planning II
Source: openclipart
- Tools are blunt
Tools for transport planning III
Source: By James Albert Bonsack (1859 – 1924), Wikimedia
- Are sometimes too complex!
- Implications for others
An open source approach
Open source in other sectors
- We can learn from 'early adopter' sectors
Community buy-in
Testing many tools
Source: Camcycle.org
Participatory planning
Envisioning shifting travel patterns
Source: Leeds Cycling Campaign
Incorporation of new digital technologies
Transport planning is somthing you do
Source: Lovelace et al. (2016)
Summary table
| Keep | Replace | How |
|---|---|---|
| Terminology | Inaccessible | Online tools |
| Equations | Proprietary ownership | Open source licences |
| Use of scenarios | Ageing software | New software |
| Narrow scenarios of future | Flexible models | |
| Black boxes | Simple and open method |
Get tooled up
- Learn to speak 'their' language
- Make use of web technologies: Google Maps, CycleStreets.net, CycleScape etc.
- The Propensity to Cycle Tool is an open source, online and accessible model
- Engage with transport models
References
Lovelace, Robin. 2016. "Mapping out the future of cycling." Get Britain Cycling, 2016. P. 22 - 24. Available from getbritaincycling.net
Beddoe, Rachael, Robert Costanza, Joshua Farley, Eric Garza, Jennifer Kent, Ida Kubiszewski, Luz Martinez, et al. 2009. “Overcoming Systemic Roadblocks to Sustainability: The Evolutionary Redesign of Worldviews, Institutions, and Technologies.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106 (8): 2483–9. doi:10.1073/pnas.0812570106.
Boyce, David E., and Huw C. W. L. Williams. 2015. Forecasting Urban Travel: Past, Present and Future. Edward Elgar Publishing.
Lovelace, Robin, Anna Goodman, Rachel Aldred, Nikolai Berkoff, Ali Abbas, and James Woodcock. 2016. “The Propensity to Cycle Tool: An Open Source Online System for Sustainable Transport Planning.” ArXiv:1509.04425 [Cs]. http://arxiv.org/abs/1509.04425.