Weekly Scheduling Luck

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Weekly Scheduling Luck Report.

Each week I am going to send out this report which will illustrate how lucky (or unlucky) each team was to win or lose that week.

Here is how I am calculating luck. Each week you were scheduled to play agains someone which was scheduled at random. I’ve taken your score and matched it up against every other players scores for the week to see how many “Wins” and “Losses” you would have against all the other teams. I then used that number along with your actual outcome to determine your luck value.

A luck value of 1 means you got really lucky and played the only opponent you could have beaten.

A luck value of -1 means you played the only opponent this week that could have beaten you.

This Weeks Results

. Player Result Teams.Could.Have.Beat Chance.to.Win
Luckiest Player(s): Birgen W 1 9.1 %
Unluckiest Player(s): Rosen L 6 54.5 %
Week Player Score Opp.Score WL Wins Losses Luck
13 Henderson 135 56 W 11 0 0.0
13 Hayes 127 61 W 10 1 0.1
13 Giordano 94 80 W 9 2 0.2
13 D. Alvarez 90 58 W 8 3 0.3
13 Jasti 85 83 W 7 4 0.4
13 Rosen 83 85 L 6 5 -0.6
13 Ochs 80 94 L 5 6 -0.5
13 Jillard 61 127 L 4 7 -0.4
13 Sarnacki 58 90 L 3 8 -0.3
13 J. Alvarez 56 135 L 2 9 -0.2
13 Birgen 54 52 W 1 10 1.0
13 Burke 52 54 L 0 11 0.0

Weekly Luck Plots

Total Season Luck

In this section I plot your actual wins agains the number of expected wins. I calculate expected wins by summing the percentages of wins against all opponents each week. So if you could have beated 7 of 11 teams in Week 1 then that is 0.64 expected wins. If you did that for four weeks straight then after 4 weeks you would have 2.55 expected wins.

Scoring Distribution

Below is the distribution of scores. The numbers represent the week in which the score occured. This plot allows us to see who is most consistent.

Opponent Performance vs Average

In this new section, I compare how your opponents have performed against you vs how they perform on average. Plotted is the median, 25%, and 75% quantiles for the difference between what your opponents score against you and their average score. For example, a difference of 12 means median score your opponents have against you is 12 points higher than their average for the season.

Appendix

Prior Week Luck Plots