These datasets include the sexual network at the last time step, biomarker data with detailed trajectories, infection, death and partnership events, and counts of various quantities at each time step.

Results

Demography

We first compute the annual growth rate.

The average final population size, across the 5 is 1.04528 × 104, corresponding to a growth rate of 2.71%. (The rate of entry of new individuals is a free parameter, and will be adjusted to reflect data form the three cities).

The age distribution at the end of the simulation is below.

# gg net%v%"age"
# plot(
#   qplot(age, geom="histogram", binwidth=5, 
#        col=I("red"), 
#        alpha=I(.2))
#   )

Prevalence

The overall prevalence at the end of the simulation was about 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4%. HIV prevalence as a function of time is shown below.

plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-6

Incidence

The annual incidence rates over the course of the simulation are shown below.

   ## No id variables; using all as measure variables

plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-7

Main Partnerships

Mean degree.

The target main mean degree is 0.46 and a plot of the simulated mean degree, over the course of the simulations, is below.

plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-8

Degree Distribution

## degree0 degree1 degree2 degree3 
##    6679    4469     221       9 
## degree0 degree1 degree2 degree3 
##    6436    4486     215      10 
## degree0 degree1 degree2 degree3 
##    6537    4312     206      12 
## degree0 degree1 degree2 degree3 
##    5594    3878     187      10 
## degree0 degree1 degree2 degree3 
##    5335    3520     144       4

plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-9

Partnership duration.

## Don't know how to automatically pick scale for object of type data.frame. Defaulting to continuous.

plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-10

Casual Partnerships

Mean degree.

The target main mean degree is 0.59 and a plot of the simulated mean degree, over the course of the simulations, is below.

plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-11

## degree0 degree1 degree2 degree3 degree4 degree5 degree6 
##    6264    3983     908     185      31       6       1 
## degree0 degree1 degree2 degree3 degree4 degree5 
##    6163    3834     879     220      49       2 
## degree0 degree1 degree2 degree3 degree4 degree5 degree7 
##    6079    3876     871     201      35       4       1 
## degree0 degree1 degree2 degree3 degree4 degree5 
##    5412    3343     711     162      40       1 
## degree0 degree1 degree2 degree3 degree4 degree5 degree6 
##    4977    3143     667     186      24       5       1

plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-12