Last Updated - 2016-09-05

Introduction

Predicted August last Round 2 : h20 algoritm = 53637

Actual Aug Round 2 Actual Premium 53334 , with differences of 303.

The model will now add in new data and attempt to forecast the September 2016 COE Premium Category A Round 1.

Data source is from here.

The PQP is a 3 month moving average and it is 53339 for Sept 2016. PQP source from here : https://vrl.lta.gov.sg/lta/vrl/action/pubfunc?ID=EnquirePQPRates

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## H2O is not running yet, starting it now...
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## Note:  In case of errors look at the following log files:
##     C:\Users\admin\AppData\Local\Temp\RtmpgVSgEp/h2o_admin_started_from_r.out
##     C:\Users\admin\AppData\Local\Temp\RtmpgVSgEp/h2o_admin_started_from_r.err
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## Starting H2O JVM and connecting: . Connection successful!
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## R is connected to the H2O cluster: 
##     H2O cluster uptime:         2 seconds 32 milliseconds 
##     H2O cluster version:        3.10.0.6 
##     H2O cluster version age:    10 days  
##     H2O cluster name:           H2O_started_from_R_admin_ujz414 
##     H2O cluster total nodes:    1 
##     H2O cluster total memory:   7.10 GB 
##     H2O cluster total cores:    8 
##     H2O cluster allowed cores:  8 
##     H2O cluster healthy:        TRUE 
##     H2O Connection ip:          localhost 
##     H2O Connection port:        54321 
##     H2O Connection proxy:       NA 
##     R Version:                  R version 3.3.0 (2016-05-03)
##  Connection successful!
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## R is connected to the H2O cluster: 
##     H2O cluster uptime:         2 seconds 378 milliseconds 
##     H2O cluster version:        3.10.0.6 
##     H2O cluster version age:    10 days  
##     H2O cluster name:           H2O_started_from_R_admin_ujz414 
##     H2O cluster total nodes:    1 
##     H2O cluster total memory:   7.10 GB 
##     H2O cluster total cores:    8 
##     H2O cluster allowed cores:  8 
##     H2O cluster healthy:        TRUE 
##     H2O Connection ip:          localhost 
##     H2O Connection port:        54321 
##     H2O Connection proxy:       NA 
##     R Version:                  R version 3.3.0 (2016-05-03)
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## Variable Importances: 
##   variable  relative_importance scaled_importance percentage
## 1      PQP 1632690503680.000000          1.000000   0.855078
## 2     BIDS  173831553024.000000          0.106469   0.091040
## 3    QUOTA   56126590976.000000          0.034377   0.029395
## 4     DIFF   46756659200.000000          0.028638   0.024488
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* Adjusted R Square is 97.92%. Estimated COE Premium is 53821.