Last Updated - 2016-08-17

Introduction

Predicted August last Round 1 : h20 algoritm = 53429

Actual Aug Round 1 Actual Premium 52503 , with differences of 926.

The model will now add in new data and attempt to forecast the August 2016 COE Premium Category A Round 2.

Data source is from here.

The PQP is a 3 month moving average and it is 51518 for August 2016.

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## H2O is not running yet, starting it now...
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## Note:  In case of errors look at the following log files:
##     C:\Users\admin\AppData\Local\Temp\RtmpCyfbsI/h2o_admin_started_from_r.out
##     C:\Users\admin\AppData\Local\Temp\RtmpCyfbsI/h2o_admin_started_from_r.err
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## Starting H2O JVM and connecting:  Connection successful!
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## R is connected to the H2O cluster: 
##     H2O cluster uptime:         1 seconds 270 milliseconds 
##     H2O cluster version:        3.8.3.3 
##     H2O cluster name:           H2O_started_from_R_admin_ewm087 
##     H2O cluster total nodes:    1 
##     H2O cluster total memory:   7.10 GB 
##     H2O cluster total cores:    8 
##     H2O cluster allowed cores:  8 
##     H2O cluster healthy:        TRUE 
##     H2O Connection ip:          localhost 
##     H2O Connection port:        54321 
##     H2O Connection proxy:       NA 
##     R Version:                  R version 3.3.0 (2016-05-03)
##  Connection successful!
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## R is connected to the H2O cluster: 
##     H2O cluster uptime:         1 seconds 480 milliseconds 
##     H2O cluster version:        3.8.3.3 
##     H2O cluster name:           H2O_started_from_R_admin_ewm087 
##     H2O cluster total nodes:    1 
##     H2O cluster total memory:   7.10 GB 
##     H2O cluster total cores:    8 
##     H2O cluster allowed cores:  8 
##     H2O cluster healthy:        TRUE 
##     H2O Connection ip:          localhost 
##     H2O Connection port:        54321 
##     H2O Connection proxy:       NA 
##     R Version:                  R version 3.3.0 (2016-05-03)
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## Variable Importances: 
##   variable  relative_importance scaled_importance percentage
## 1      PQP 1630762696704.000000          1.000000   0.854322
## 2     BIDS  171640340480.000000          0.105252   0.089919
## 3    QUOTA   58914938880.000000          0.036127   0.030864
## 4     DIFF   47520067584.000000          0.029140   0.024895
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* Adjusted R Square is 97.92%. Estimated COE Premium is 53637.