Last Updated - 2016-08-17

Introduction

The previous July model round 2 predicted model of 53092 (using H20).

Actual July Round 1 Actual Premium 53000 , with differences of 92.

The model will now add in new data and attempt to forecast the August 2016 COE Premium Category A Round 1.

Data source is from here.

The PQP is a 3 month moving average and it is 51518 for August 2016. Quota estimated to be 2018.

## 
## H2O is not running yet, starting it now...
## 
## Note:  In case of errors look at the following log files:
##     C:\Users\admin\AppData\Local\Temp\RtmpyMh33v/h2o_admin_started_from_r.out
##     C:\Users\admin\AppData\Local\Temp\RtmpyMh33v/h2o_admin_started_from_r.err
## 
## 
## Starting H2O JVM and connecting:  Connection successful!
## 
## R is connected to the H2O cluster: 
##     H2O cluster uptime:         1 seconds 251 milliseconds 
##     H2O cluster version:        3.8.3.3 
##     H2O cluster name:           H2O_started_from_R_admin_sen264 
##     H2O cluster total nodes:    1 
##     H2O cluster total memory:   7.10 GB 
##     H2O cluster total cores:    8 
##     H2O cluster allowed cores:  8 
##     H2O cluster healthy:        TRUE 
##     H2O Connection ip:          localhost 
##     H2O Connection port:        54321 
##     H2O Connection proxy:       NA 
##     R Version:                  R version 3.3.0 (2016-05-03)
##  Connection successful!
## 
## R is connected to the H2O cluster: 
##     H2O cluster uptime:         1 seconds 575 milliseconds 
##     H2O cluster version:        3.8.3.3 
##     H2O cluster name:           H2O_started_from_R_admin_sen264 
##     H2O cluster total nodes:    1 
##     H2O cluster total memory:   7.10 GB 
##     H2O cluster total cores:    8 
##     H2O cluster allowed cores:  8 
##     H2O cluster healthy:        TRUE 
##     H2O Connection ip:          localhost 
##     H2O Connection port:        54321 
##     H2O Connection proxy:       NA 
##     R Version:                  R version 3.3.0 (2016-05-03)
## 
  |                                                                                                
  |                                                                                          |   0%
  |                                                                                                
  |==========================================================================================| 100%
## 
  |                                                                                                
  |                                                                                          |   0%
  |                                                                                                
  |==========================================================================================| 100%
## 
  |                                                                                                
  |                                                                                          |   0%
  |                                                                                                
  |=======================                                                                   |  26%
  |                                                                                                
  |===================================================                                       |  57%
  |                                                                                                
  |=======================================================================                   |  78%
  |                                                                                                
  |==========================================================================================| 100%
## Variable Importances: 
##   variable  relative_importance scaled_importance percentage
## 1      PQP 1630964547584.000000          1.000000   0.854855
## 2     BIDS  173138313216.000000          0.106157   0.090749
## 3    QUOTA   57246380032.000000          0.035100   0.030005
## 4     DIFF   46534123520.000000          0.028532   0.024390
## 
  |                                                                                                
  |                                                                                          |   0%
  |                                                                                                
  |==========================================================================================| 100%
## 
  |                                                                                                
  |                                                                                          |   0%
  |                                                                                                
  |==========================================================================================| 100%

* Adjusted R Square is 97.92%. Estimated COE Premium is 53429.