Development Economics

Today's Outline

  1. Course map and Syllabus
  2. Introduction to Development Economics
  3. The Experimental Revolution in Development Economics

A Bit About Myself

  1. 老家: 密歇根
  2. 活动:踢足球
  3. 研究:经济发展,区域经济,地理经济

What is this Course About?

  • Understanding the economic aspects of the development process
  • Understanding what can be done to reduce poverty and encourage economic growth.
  • Engaging the fundamental question of development studies:
    • Why are some regions/countries poor and not others?

What Is Development Economics?

  • It’s income growth
    • How can development occur without growth?
  • It’s welfare economics
    • poverty/inequality
  • It’s agricultural economics
    • improving agricultural efficiency
  • It's economic demography
    • internal/international migration
  • It's labor economics
    • education, health, employment
  • It's the study of markets for goods, services, inputs, credit, etc.
  • It's public economics
    • provision of public goods, e.g. roads, waste management, etc.
  • It's about natural resources

So… Development Economics is about

  • … Everything!
  • So why have a field of development economics?

    • The assumption that there must be something different about poor places. What is it?

Evolution of Development Thought

  • Taking off
    • Rostow vs. Kuznets: Poor countries' development unique from rich ones
  • Growth
    • Harrod-Domar model; Lewis's Structural Transformation (rural-urban shift)
  • Inequality and Poverty
    • Kuznets’s “inverted U” hypothesis
  • Trusting Markets
    • Shift from state involvement (e.g. failed ISI policies) towards markets
  • Not Trusting Markets
    • Liberalization may not improve welfare if markets do not work! (Stiglitz)
  • The Experimental Revolution
    • Current focus of development economics – micro- policy impact analysis (e.g. conditional and social cash transfer programs)
We’ll cover all of these in this class…

Why are some Countries Poor?

What is Poverty

  • The World Bank describes poverty as:
    • hunger, lack of shelter, being sick and not being able to see a doctor
    • illiterate and not having access to school
    • not having a job, fear for the future, and living one day at a time
  • There is no one cause of poverty, and the results of it are different in every case.

  • Poverty is geographical in nature:
    • Feeling poor in Canada is different from living in poverty in Russia or Zimbabwe.
    • The differences between rich and poor within the borders of a country can also be great.

What’s Development?

  • Economic development entails far-reaching changes in the structure of economies, technologies, societies, and political systems.

  • Development economics is the study of economies that do not fit many of the basic assumptions underpinning economic analysis in high-income countries

    • Including well-functioning markets, perfect information, and low transaction costs.
  • When these assumptions break down, so do the most basic welfare and policy conclusions of economics…

What Development Projects Focus On

  • Concrete outcomes related to poverty, malnutrition, inequality, and health
  • Basic physical needs like nutrition, shelter, and clothing
  • Development of the mind (and of course people’s earnings potential), through education
  • The environment, conservation, and sustainable resource use
  • Human rights, gender and ethnic equity
  • Government corruption
  • Creation of infrastructure: transport, communications, market

How Do We Know When a Country is Developing?

But Careful: Costa Rica vs. Equatorial Guinea

Income and Growth

  • In rich countries: development and growth are seen as similar

    • E.g., think about urban development projects
  • A lot of things correlate with income

    • Life expectancy is higher in the US than Malawi
  • But most development economists would say development is different from growth

    • … though it’s hard to have development without growth

Efficiency Versus Equity

  • Rich countries: seen as separate

    • Grow the pie, then figure out how it gets divvied up
  • Poor countries: Equity and efficiency cannot usually be separated

Need both Efficiency and Equity

Why Need both Efficiency and Equity

  • Banks are unwilling to loan money to small farmers
  • Poor people cannot get insurance to protect themselves against crop loss or sickness
  • Poverty and malnutrition prevent kids from growing up to become productive adults
  • Access to markets for the stuff people produce, the inputs they use, and the goods they demand is different for the poor and rich
  • The ability to get a job depends on who you are, not on how productive you are
  • No more student loans?

So What Is Development Then?

Millennium Development Goals

Set of targets adopted by 189 nations in Sept. 2000

  1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

  2. Universal primary education

  3. Gender equity, empowerment of women

  4. Reduce child mortality

  5. Improve maternal health

  6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, other diseases

  7. Environmental sustainability

  8. Develop a global partnership for development

Millennium Development Goals

  • Some on track, others not (esp. child mortality, gender equity in school enrollment)
  • Effects of recent crisis worrisome (Example from Mexico)
  • Per-capita income growth “increases the range of human choice” (W. Arthur Lewis, 1995, The Theory of Economic Growth)

What Happens As Countries Develop?

  • Social indicators improve
    • Health: Life expectancy, infant mortality
    • Education: Literacy, higher education
  • Structure of economy changes
    • Shift from agriculture to higher-paying urban jobs
  • Institutions develop and deepen
    • Legal, market, government, etc. (Ex: Contracts and Real Estate)
  • Accelerating then decelerating population growth
    • Emigration to immigration (the migration transition)
  • Application of science to problems of production

The Experiemntal Revolution in Development Economics

Conditional (or Social) Cash Transfer Programs

  • Programs that aim to reduce poverty and break cycle of poverty through human capital development.
  • The government (or a charity) transfers small sum of money to poor persons
    • If CCT, people must meet certain criteria (e.g enroll children into school, doctor visit, receive vaccination, etc.

CCTs

Social Protection vs. Production?

  • Should countries spend scarce resources on SCTs?
  • …or should they spend them on productive programs?
    • New crop technologies, input subsidies, crop price supports, extension
  • The big question UNICEF and governments face

Q: What Happens When A Transfer Hits the Target Household?

Expenditure shares on: A B C D
Crop 22% 27% 12% 15%
Livestock 25% 16% 30% 21%
Retail 32% 37% 27% 33%
Services 4% 4% 4% 6%
Production 2% 2% 2% 1%
ROW 15% 15% 25% 24%

Measuring the Causal Effect of Transfer on HH Income

  • Contagion and Income Multiplier Effects

Effect on Total Income

Multiplier Level Change
Total Income Y
- Nominal 2.23 7.38
- Real 1.36 4.5
- (CI) (1.25-1.45)

Effect on Household Incomes

Multiplier
Household A Income
- Nominal 1.15
- Real 1.03
Household C Income (Ineligible Households)
- Nominal 1.08
- Real 0.33

\[ \frac{0.33}{0.33 + 1.03} = 24% \]

Effects on Production

Production multiplier for: HH A (24% pop) HH C (76% pop)
Crop 0.03 0.15
Livestock 0.02 0.26
Retail 0.07 0.52
Services 0 0.08
Other Production 0 0
Total 0.13 1.01

How to Do Studies Like This?

  1. Compelling research problem
  2. Good theory
  3. Careful review of what others have done
  4. Clear, testable hypotheses
    • Here, that transfers create significant spillovers
  5. Good Data
  6. Convincing empirical approach

Group Discussions

Please break up into small groups (3-4):

  1. Introduce yourselves (name, hometown, major, year, most delicious food you ate during 春节)
  2. Any ideas on why some regions/countries are poor and others rich?
  3. Do you think China is a developing country?