Methodology

The following numbers are projected by using the turnout statistics from 2008 and the statement of the vote from the June 7, 2016 primary election. The vote total projections take the 2008 turnout percentage for each city and multiplies it to the number of registered voters for the 2016 primary. Then, the prejected number of ballots is multiplied by Baker’s vote share from the 2016 primary to find the projected number of votes for Baker in each city. Finally, these numbers are totalled across the district to get the total summary statistics.

\[proj.per.baker = \frac{Voters * Proj.Turnout * Per.Baker}{Voters * Proj.Turnout}\]

Projected Results AD16
votes baker per.baker
341850.2 174249.4 0.5097245

Assumptions

Building a model off of only one data point means that there were many assumptions that were made implicitely, I will try to list all those that apply. First, we are assuming that 2008 and 2016 will have similar turnout numbers because both years have Presidential elections without an incumbant. Second, we are assuming that Baker’s percentage of the vote will remain the same as more people turnout to vote. This may not be the case because Republicans didn’t have an exciting primary to turnout voters like Democrats had with Sanders and Clinton. Thirdly, we are assuming that no more voters will register between June and November. There are are ways to get a better sense of what turnout and registration will look like by using a time series regression model, which I will do in the next couple of weeks. That will, unfortunately, be only at the city level becuase the precincts change from year to year.

Projections by City
City Total Number of Voters 2016 Primary Turnout Baker Vote Share 2008 Turnout Projected Number of Ballots Projected Number of Votes for Baker Change in Turnout
unincorporated 18908 0.1826740 0.5237406 0.87 16449.96 8615.51177 0.6873260
Pleasanton 86117 0.2531440 0.4796330 0.84 72338.28 34695.82824 0.5868560
Livermore 93922 0.2393156 0.5008676 0.80 75137.60 37633.98589 0.5606844
Dublin 35881 0.2611689 0.4576886 0.80 28704.80 13137.86012 0.5388311
Las Trampas 62 0.3709677 0.6956522 0.87 53.94 37.52348 0.4990323
Norris Canyon 555 0.3711712 0.5873786 0.87 482.85 283.61578 0.4988288
San Ramon 35712 0.4104503 0.5161686 0.89 31783.68 16405.73904 0.4795497
Black Hawk 7974 0.4171056 0.6572459 0.87 6937.38 4559.56485 0.4528944
Danville 27951 0.4648492 0.6071731 0.90 25155.90 15273.98562 0.4351508
Caldecott 11 0.4545455 0.6000000 0.87 9.57 5.74200 0.4154545
Mount Diablo 427 0.4613583 0.7157360 0.87 371.49 265.88878 0.4086417
Alamo 10889 0.4870052 0.6639638 0.87 9473.43 6290.01453 0.3829948
Saint Marys 158 0.4873418 0.4545455 0.87 137.46 62.48182 0.3826582
Diablo 805 0.4919255 0.7222222 0.87 700.35 505.80833 0.3780745
Moraga 10274 0.5257933 0.5570159 0.90 9246.60 5150.50341 0.3742067
Tassajara 10 0.5000000 0.8000000 0.87 8.70 6.96000 0.3700000
Shell Ridge 682 0.5117302 0.4785100 0.87 593.34 283.91914 0.3582698
Walnut Creek 34805 0.5342049 0.4643683 0.89 30976.45 14384.48176 0.3557951
Lafayette 16735 0.5688676 0.5080882 0.91 15228.85 7737.59952 0.3411324
Walnut Knolls 2699 0.5379770 0.4938017 0.87 2348.13 1159.51048 0.3320230
Saranap 4357 0.5393619 0.3953191 0.87 3790.59 1498.49281 0.3306381
Orinda 13082 0.5801865 0.5301713 0.90 11773.80 6242.13059 0.3198135
Canyon 169 0.6390533 0.0833333 0.87 147.03 12.25250 0.2309467