Introduction

I was curious about the EU Referendum Rules triggering a 2nd EU Referendum petition visible at https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215. I started downloading the petition data every 10 mins from 10 am on Sat 25th and later upped the rate to every 2 mins. There is simple analysis presented below and you will be able to do more if you want using the data (see https://github.com/jefferis/EURef2Petition)

Summary

About 95% of signatories are UK residents
The petition was receiving about 2000 UK signatures/min at its peak
Support is highest in Green (15.9%, n=1) and Lib Dem (6.1%, n=8) constituencies but there is then not much of a step down to Con (5.6%) or Lab (5.0%)
SNP constituencies (3.1%) are signing at approx half the rate that you might expect giving the strong remain vote in Scotland.
At a regional level, Scotland (3.2%) and Northern Ireland (3.4%) have signature rates less than half of the South East (6.6%) or London (9.0%)
There is a weak but still very significant negative correlation between the proportion of older voters in a constituency and the number of signatures.
There is a very strong positive correlation (R^2>0.8) between constituency level referendum results and the rate of signing the petition.
In this model, rates for Wales and especially Scotland were lower
I found evidence for about 30,000 dubious signatures using UK post-codes in 2 constituencies on Sun am. petition.parliament.uk removed these within hours (without any input from me).
About 3340 additional fake signatures were added on Mon later afternoon/evening with a postcode in the Bracknell constituency.
There were a similar number of irregularities in non-UK signatures (at a higher proportional rate since the number of non-UK signatures is only 5% of the total). I did not analyse these further since they are not relevant to the petition process.

Load Data

# summary data frame
sdf=readRDS("signature_data.rds") 
# list of all raw data
pet_data=readRDS('munged_petition_data.rds')

We can get plot the total signatures and get a quick estimate of the number of signatures per minute since I started collecting data.

library(ggplot2)

qplot(time, total, data=sdf, ylim=c(0,NA), geom='line')

mylm=lm(total~time, data=sdf)
summary(mylm)

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = total ~ time, data = sdf)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -1685282  -136115    63757   234621   329373 
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept) -7.394e+09  7.460e+07  -99.12   <2e-16 ***
## time         5.042e+00  5.085e-02   99.17   <2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 289000 on 2988 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.767,  Adjusted R-squared:  0.7669 
## F-statistic:  9834 on 1 and 2988 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

We can repeat the plot but only with UK signatures (although British citizens abrorad have the right to sign there is more data available for UK residents)

# the same but UK signatures only by using consituency table
sdf$uksigs=sapply(pet_data, function(x) sum(x$data$attributes$signatures_by_constituency$signature_count))

# ggplot needs data in a *tall* rather than wide format
library(tidyr)
sdftall=gather(sdf[-1],count.type, n, -time)

qplot(time, n, col=count.type, data=sdftall, geom='line', 
      ylim=c(0,NA), ylab='signatures', xlab=NULL) +
  scale_x_datetime(date_labels="%a %H:%M", date_breaks="12 hours") +
  theme(legend.position = c(0.1, .9))

Note that the 3810617 UK signatures make up 94.2213581% of the total.

You can see a couple of obvious dislocations. The up-tick of about 10,000 non-UK signatures shortly after 3am Sunday obviously looks dubious and is characterised in further detail below.

Signatures per min

We can take a look at how the number of signatures per minute has evolved:

with(sdf, 
     qplot(time[-1], 
           diff(total)/(as.integer(diff(time))/60), 
           ylim=c(0,NA),
           ylab="Signatures /min",
           xlab='Time') +
       scale_x_datetime(date_labels="%a %H:%M", date_breaks="12 hours")
     +stat_smooth(method = 'loess', span=.03)
)

## Warning: Removed 6 rows containing non-finite values (stat_smooth).

## Warning: Removed 6 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

You can see that there is one outlier of >10,000 signatures per minute, corresponding to the blip in non-UK signatures at 3am on Sunday mentioned earlier. There are futher small blips (~1000-1500) on Monday either side of 12:00 but these turn out to be non-UK signatures so I have ignored them.

Let’s repeat with UK signatures only:

with(sdf, 
     qplot(time[-1], 
           diff(uksigs)/(as.integer(diff(time))/60), 
           ylim=c(0,NA),
           ylab="Signatures /min",
           xlab='Time') +
       scale_x_datetime(date_labels="%a %H:%M", date_breaks="12 hours")
     +stat_smooth(method = 'loess', span=.03)
)

## Warning: Removed 2 rows containing non-finite values (stat_smooth).

## Warning: Removed 2 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

So I am pleased to report that UK does actually sleep during the small hours of the morning (though some people seemed to be awake during the early hours of Sunday - see below). Overall this looks a reasonable activity profile and shows that at the peak, UK signatures were coming in at over 2000/min.

Comparison with constituency level information

petition.parliament.uk releases a break down of data by constituency. We can use this to compare the petition data with constituency information including party, demographics etc. See Acknowledgements for data sources.

by.mps=readRDS('general_election_by.mps.rds')
all.winners <-  by.mps %>% 
  select(Constituency, Votes, Party) %>% 
  arrange(desc(Votes)) %>%
  data.frame()

constituency_names.df <- read.csv("constituency_names.csv", header=TRUE, row.names=1)
all.winners=merge(all.winners, constituency_names.df)

library(readxl)
pop=read_excel("Population-by-age.xlsx", sheet = "Data")

Let’s list some basic info for the top and bottom 20 constituencies. Note that sig_rate is the number of signatures per head of population (all ages):

euref=pet_data[[length(pet_data)]]

sigdf=euref$data$attributes$signatures_by_constituency
sigdf=merge(sigdf, pop, by.x='ons_code', by.y = 'ONSConstID')
sigdf$sig_rate=sigdf$signature_count/sigdf$PopTotalConstNum

sigdf=merge(sigdf, all.winners, by.x='ons_code', by.y = 'id')
sigdf %>% 
  arrange(desc(sig_rate)) %>% 
  select(c(ons_code:signature_count, sig_rate, Pop65ConstRate, Party)) %>% 
  top_n(20, sig_rate) %>%
  kable

ons_code	name	mp	signature_count	sig_rate	Pop65ConstRate	Party
E14000752	Hornsey and Wood Green	Catherine West MP	23640	0.1826357	0.1027287	Labour
E14000763	Islington North	Rt Hon Jeremy Corbyn MP	19935	0.1824430	0.0892035	Labour
E14000602	Bristol West	Thangam Debbonaire MP	23188	0.1781130	0.0763210	Labour
E14000598	Brighton, Pavilion	Caroline Lucas MP	19100	0.1767847	0.1061634	Green Party
E14000549	Battersea	Jane Ellison MP	18864	0.1700563	0.0835136	Conservative
E14000896	Richmond Park	Zac Goldsmith MP	20158	0.1655878	0.1413140	Conservative
E14000727	Hampstead and Kilburn	Tulip Siddiq MP	22407	0.1641972	0.1186393	Labour
E14000764	Islington South and Finsbury	Emily Thornberry MP	17976	0.1608403	0.0883208	Labour
E14000673	Dulwich and West Norwood	Helen Hayes MP	18281	0.1607064	0.0884892	Labour
E14000998	Tooting	Dr Rosena Allin-Khan MP	17155	0.1595473	0.0879254	Labour
E14000768	Kensington	Victoria Borwick MP	18010	0.1581628	0.1305524	Conservative
E14000887	Putney	Rt Hon Justine Greening MP	14818	0.1581531	0.1076803	Conservative
E14000639	Cities of London and Westminster	Rt Hon Mark Field MP	18639	0.1581426	0.1269705	Conservative
E14000629	Chelsea and Fulham	Rt Hon Greg Hands MP	16603	0.1578052	0.1293008	Conservative
E14001040	Wimbledon	Stephen Hammond MP	15068	0.1552298	0.1322564	Conservative
E14000721	Hackney South and Shoreditch	Meg Hillier MP	19406	0.1530623	0.0731238	Labour
E14001008	Vauxhall	Kate Hoey MP	18066	0.1522848	0.0748780	Labour
E14000720	Hackney North and Stoke Newington	Ms Diane Abbott MP	20513	0.1504272	0.0704286	Labour
E14000750	Holborn and St Pancras	Keir Starmer MP	21486	0.1499979	0.1099189	Labour
E14001005	Twickenham	Dr Tania Mathias MP	17282	0.1475190	0.1432425	Conservative

sigdf %>% 
  arrange(desc(sig_rate)) %>% 
  select(c(ons_code:signature_count, sig_rate, Pop65ConstRate, Party)) %>% 
  top_n(20, desc(sig_rate)) %>%
  kable

ons_code	name	mp	signature_count	sig_rate	Pop65ConstRate	Party
E14001030	West Bromwich West	Mr Adrian Bailey MP	1937	0.0207639	0.1451649	Labour
E14000716	Great Grimsby	Melanie Onn MP	1818	0.0205784	0.1664837	Labour
E14000891	Redcar	Anna Turley MP	1783	0.0205427	0.2059796	Labour
S14000004	Angus	Mike Weir MP	1753	0.0202338	0.2143888	Scottish National Party
S14000032	Glasgow North East	Anne McLaughlin MP	1729	0.0201454	0.1500944	Scottish National Party
S14000040	Kilmarnock and Loudoun	Alan Brown MP	1907	0.0198317	0.1886043	Scottish National Party
S14000059	West Dunbartonshire	Martin Docherty-Hughes MP	1758	0.0195921	0.1754263	Scottish National Party
S14000035	Glasgow South West	Chris Stephens MP	1663	0.0193723	0.1473487	Scottish National Party
E14000582	Boston and Skegness	Matt Warman MP	2006	0.0193074	0.2290323	Conservative
E14000771	Kingston upon Hull East	Karl Turner MP	1774	0.0192950	0.1653343	Labour
E14000677	Easington	Grahame Morris MP	1576	0.0190428	0.1877334	Labour
E14000669	Doncaster North	Rt Hon Edward Miliband MP	1853	0.0188191	0.1805736	Labour
S14000011	Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill	Philip Boswell MP	1771	0.0183023	0.1547786	Scottish National Party
E14000542	Barnsley East	Michael Dugher MP	1655	0.0177877	0.1845618	Labour
S14000047	Motherwell and Wishaw	Marion Fellows MP	1517	0.0165173	0.1650643	Scottish National Party
E14001011	Walsall North	Mr David Winnick MP	1555	0.0162030	0.1643013	Labour
S14000036	Glenrothes	Peter Grant MP	1415	0.0158914	0.1903821	Scottish National Party
S14000003	Airdrie and Shotts	Neil Gray MP	1336	0.0152148	0.1592775	Scottish National Party
S14000007	Banff and Buchan	Dr Eilidh Whiteford MP	1378	0.0149482	0.1921245	Scottish National Party
S14000030	Glasgow East	Natalie McGarry MP	1236	0.0138658	0.1579426	Scottish National Party

From which a few interesting points emerge. Most of the top constituencies are in the Bremain hotspots in London/SE with Con or Lab MPs. However interestingly the bottom 20 include 11 SNP constituencies (many of which presumably voted to remain). It looks like the Scots are not involved with this process.

We can look at a summary by Party:

sigdf %>%
  group_by(Party) %>%
  summarise(`Mean Sig Rate`=mean(sig_rate), `Constituencies`=length(sig_rate)) %>% 
  arrange(desc(`Mean Sig Rate`)) %>%
  kable()

Party	Mean Sig Rate	Constituencies
Green Party	0.1767847	1
Liberal Democrat	0.0682556	8
Conservative	0.0625805	331
Social Democratic & Labour Party	0.0568346	3
Plaid Cymru	0.0568218	3
Labour	0.0561606	232
Independent	0.0504711	1
Democratic Unionist Party	0.0341348	8
Scottish National Party	0.0337721	56
Ulster Unionist Party	0.0317342	2
Sinn Fein	0.0305904	4
UKIP	0.0236869	1

all of which makes pretty good sense to me (Green and Lib Dem constituencies highest) Cons/Lab similarly. SNP lower than might be expected as noted above.

We can look at a summary by Region:

sigdf %>%
  group_by(RegionName) %>%
  summarise(`Mean Sig Rate`=mean(sig_rate), `Constituencies`=length(sig_rate)) %>% 
  arrange(desc(`Mean Sig Rate`)) %>%
  kable()

RegionName	Mean Sig Rate	Constituencies
London	0.1011557	73
South East	0.0733696	84
South West	0.0670911	55
East of England	0.0580005	58
North West	0.0505099	75
Wales	0.0486292	40
East Midlands	0.0462598	46
Yorkshire and The Humber	0.0445738	54
West Midlands	0.0427558	59
North East	0.0381505	29
Northern Ireland	0.0377713	18
Scotland	0.0347947	59

To my view this re-emphasises the fact that Scotland and Northern Ireland, which both voted to remain, are not engaging with this petition. However, it may be that this is not unusual (e.g. maybe they are not interested in petitioning the Westminster legislature in general). This needs to be checked with other petitions.

We can compare the signature rate with some demographic data:

qplot(data=sigdf, sig_rate, Pop65ConstRate, xlim=c(0,NA), ylim=c(0,NA))+
  stat_smooth(method = 'lm')

eupet.lm=lm(sig_rate~Pop65ConstRate, data=sigdf)
summary(eupet.lm)

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = sig_rate ~ Pop65ConstRate, data = sigdf)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -0.04805 -0.02327 -0.00548  0.01581  0.10940 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                 Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)     0.094297   0.004733  19.924  < 2e-16 ***
## Pop65ConstRate -0.204997   0.025386  -8.075 3.29e-15 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.03 on 648 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.09143,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.09003 
## F-statistic: 65.21 on 1 and 648 DF,  p-value: 3.292e-15

As expected constituencies with higher levels of over 65s are signing less. Now it is possible that some fraction of this effect is because older people are less likely to engage with the petitions website. Is this true?

Comparison with EU Pamphlet petition

The petition [STOP CAMERON spending British taxpayers’ money on Pro-EU Referendum leaflets] (https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/116762) is on a similar topic but is likely to appeal to out rather than remain voters:

library(jsonlite)
eupamphlet.raw=fromJSON("https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/116762.json")
eupamphlet.sigdf=eupamphlet.raw$data$attributes$signatures_by_constituency
# merge in constituency level demographic data used earlier
eupamphlet.sigdf=merge(eupamphlet.sigdf, pop, by.x='ons_code', by.y = 'ONSConstID')
# compute 
eupamphlet.sigdf = mutate(eupamphlet.sigdf, sig_rate=signature_count/PopTotalConstNum)

We can then compare the proportion of over 65s in each constituency with the rate of signatures:

qplot(data=eupamphlet.sigdf, sig_rate, Pop65ConstRate/`Pop20-64ConstRate`, xlim=c(0,NA), ylim=c(0,NA))+
  stat_smooth(method = 'lm')

eupamhlet.lm=lm(sig_rate~I(Pop65ConstRate/`Pop20-64ConstRate`), data=eupamphlet.sigdf)
summary(eupamhlet.lm)

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = sig_rate ~ I(Pop65ConstRate/`Pop20-64ConstRate`), 
##     data = eupamphlet.sigdf)
## 
## Residuals:
##        Min         1Q     Median         3Q        Max 
## -0.0030086 -0.0005074  0.0000482  0.0006286  0.0035698 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                                        Estimate Std. Error t value
## (Intercept)                           0.0004234  0.0001318   3.213
## I(Pop65ConstRate/`Pop20-64ConstRate`) 0.0094486  0.0004006  23.584
##                                       Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)                            0.00138 ** 
## I(Pop65ConstRate/`Pop20-64ConstRate`)  < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.0009869 on 648 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.4619, Adjusted R-squared:  0.4611 
## F-statistic: 556.2 on 1 and 648 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

Indeed there is a strong positive correlation (R^2=.45) and the effect size is much stronger than the negative correlation for the 2nd EU referendum signature.

Comparison with Jeremy Hunt Petition

Ideally one would try to scrape as many of the petitions as possible to provide a baseline, but for the time being I just took one other large petition that did not strike me as being particularly likely to result in an age divide.

library(jsonlite)
jhunt.raw=fromJSON("https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/121152.json")
jhunt.sigdf=jhunt.raw$data$attributes$signatures_by_constituency
# merge in constituency level demographic data used earlier
jhunt.sigdf=merge(jhunt.sigdf, pop, by.x='ons_code', by.y = 'ONSConstID')
# compute 
jhunt.sigdf = mutate(jhunt.sigdf, sig_rate=signature_count/PopTotalConstNum)

We can then compare the proportion of over 65s in each constituency with the rate of signatures:

qplot(data=jhunt.sigdf, sig_rate, Pop65ConstRate, xlim=c(0,NA), ylim=c(0,NA))+
  stat_smooth(method = 'lm')

jhunt.lm=lm(sig_rate~Pop65ConstRate, data=jhunt.sigdf)
summary(jhunt.lm)

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = sig_rate ~ Pop65ConstRate, data = jhunt.sigdf)
## 
## Residuals:
##        Min         1Q     Median         3Q        Max 
## -0.0048679 -0.0014296 -0.0002853  0.0009656  0.0149007 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                  Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)     0.0072419  0.0003709  19.524  < 2e-16 ***
## Pop65ConstRate -0.0121455  0.0019896  -6.105 1.78e-09 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.002351 on 648 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.05438,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.05292 
## F-statistic: 37.27 on 1 and 648 DF,  p-value: 1.776e-09

Now if you look at linear model summaries, you’ll see that the slope of the negative relationship for the euref petition is almost 15x greater than the Hunt petition. However we need to adjust for the fact that signature rate is much higher for the EU petition. We’ll adjust by the ratio of the mean signature rates for the two petitions.

coef(eupet.lm)/coef(jhunt.lm)*sum(jhunt.sigdf$sig_rate)/sum(sigdf$sig_rate)

##    (Intercept) Pop65ConstRate 
##       1.147698       1.487690

This gives a factor of 1.5 difference in the age-response slope (EU ref has stronger negative age correlation).

These results support an asymmetry in the petition age profile consistent with the much higher levels of support for leave voters.

All of which suggests to me that there appears to be a real negative relationship between age and proportion of petition signatures on this new referendum petition.

Comparison with Referendum Predictions

Let’s load up the referendum data from the electoral commission ## Referendum data

# euref <- read.csv("http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/file/0014/212135/EU-referendum-result-data.csv")
euref <- readRDS('EU-referendum-result-data.rds')

Now the problem is that the referendum was reported not by constituencies but by 382 areas, but maybe we can match up some of these as a starting point.

nrow(euref)

## [1] 382

inboth=intersect(sigdf$ConstituencyName, euref$Area)
length(inboth)

## [1] 151

OK so 151 referendum regions and constituencies have the same name.

Let’s use these matches to look at some relationships:

sigdf2=merge(sigdf, euref, by.x='ConstituencyName', by.y='Area')
qplot(data=sigdf2,Pct_Remain,sig_rate)+geom_smooth(method = 'lm')

Hmm, there are some points that are rather separated from the rest. Just a hunch, but let’s model the different member countries of the UK separately.

qplot(data=sigdf2,Pct_Remain,sig_rate*100, col=Nation, 
      xlab="Percent Voting Remain", ylab='Percent Signing Petition',
      main=paste("Petition vs Referendum Results for",nrow(sigdf2), "UK Constituencies"))+
  geom_smooth(method = 'lm')+
  theme(legend.position = c(0.1, .8), legend.title=element_blank())

Yup, very large difference between Scotland and England / Wales. We can also look at the terms in the linear model that reflect this:

euref.lm=lm(sig_rate~Pct_Remain+Nation,data=sigdf2)
euref.lm

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = sig_rate ~ Pct_Remain + Nation, data = sigdf2)
## 
## Coefficients:
##    (Intercept)      Pct_Remain  NationScotland     NationWales  
##       -0.05988         0.00267        -0.07187        -0.01519

summary(euref.lm)

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = sig_rate ~ Pct_Remain + Nation, data = sigdf2)
## 
## Residuals:
##       Min        1Q    Median        3Q       Max 
## -0.033774 -0.005574 -0.000074  0.005666  0.021745 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                  Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)    -0.0598797  0.0044853  -13.35  < 2e-16 ***
## Pct_Remain      0.0026702  0.0001022   26.12  < 2e-16 ***
## NationScotland -0.0718715  0.0034848  -20.62  < 2e-16 ***
## NationWales    -0.0151908  0.0037509   -4.05 8.26e-05 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.009663 on 147 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.8352, Adjusted R-squared:  0.8319 
## F-statistic: 248.4 on 3 and 147 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

Note that this full model has a very high R^2 >0.8. So, not that surprisingly, it seems that the knowing how people voted in the referendum is a very strong predictor of whether they signed this petition. Residuals in either direction might be evidence of regret (which polls have suggested to 2-3x more common in leave than remain voters). There looks to be a small up-tick in constituencies that were overwhelmingly for leave. However further work is required to match up constituency level data with referendum areas before drawing stronger conclusions.

Predicting which constituencie voted to leave

We can use the signature distributions to predict which constituencies voted to leave/remain in the EU. We need to drop Northern Ireland since we have no constituency level information for that

# Make a model for data where we have matched constits vs regions
# (poorly but apparently with good predictive power)
# Could also use percentage of over 65s as additional predictor
euref.lm2=lm(Pct_Remain~sig_rate+Nation,data=sigdf2)

summary(euref.lm2)

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = Pct_Remain ~ sig_rate + Nation, data = sigdf2)
## 
## Residuals:
##     Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
## -8.4839 -2.0692 -0.1633  2.0266 11.3530 
## 
## Coefficients:
##                Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)     26.0898     0.7111  36.689  < 2e-16 ***
## sig_rate       308.1248    11.7956  26.122  < 2e-16 ***
## NationScotland  25.4609     1.0229  24.891  < 2e-16 ***
## NationWales      4.9475     1.2799   3.866 0.000166 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 3.282 on 147 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.8761, Adjusted R-squared:  0.8736 
## F-statistic: 346.5 on 3 and 147 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

# make new data set with everything except NI
no.ni=droplevels(subset(sigdf, Nation!="Northern Ireland"))

no.ni$pred_remain=predict(euref.lm2, no.ni)

no.ni$eurpred_binary=ifelse(no.ni$pred_remain>50, "Remain", "Leave")
table(no.ni$Party, no.ni$eurpred_binary) %>% kable

	Leave	Remain
Conservative	254	77
Labour	188	44
Scottish National Party	0	56
Liberal Democrat	3	5
Plaid Cymru	2	1
Green Party	0	1
UKIP	1	0

no.ni %>% 
  select(ConstituencyName,mp, eurpred_binary, pred_remain, Party, Nation, ons_code) %>% 
  kable

	ConstituencyName	mp	eurpred_binary	pred_remain	Party	Nation	ons_code
1	Aldershot	Sir Gerald Howarth MP	Leave	41.12979	Conservative	England	E14000530
2	Aldridge-Brownhills	Wendy Morton MP	Leave	35.05970	Conservative	England	E14000531
3	Altrincham and Sale West	Mr Graham Brady MP	Remain	56.43607	Conservative	England	E14000532
4	Amber Valley	Nigel Mills MP	Leave	35.66530	Conservative	England	E14000533
5	Arundel and South Downs	Rt Hon Nick Herbert MP	Remain	53.12371	Conservative	England	E14000534
6	Ashfield	Gloria De Piero MP	Leave	33.20189	Labour	England	E14000535
7	Ashford	Rt Hon Damian Green MP	Leave	41.97583	Conservative	England	E14000536
8	Ashton-under-Lyne	Angela Rayner MP	Leave	36.22688	Labour	England	E14000537
9	Aylesbury	Rt Hon David Lidington MP	Leave	44.95548	Conservative	England	E14000538
10	Banbury	Victoria Prentis MP	Leave	46.71961	Conservative	England	E14000539
11	Barking	Rt Hon Dame Margaret Hodge MP	Leave	38.74332	Labour	England	E14000540
12	Barnsley Central	Dan Jarvis MP	Leave	33.25011	Labour	England	E14000541
13	Barnsley East	Michael Dugher MP	Leave	31.57059	Labour	England	E14000542
14	Barrow and Furness	John Woodcock MP	Leave	37.37841	Labour	England	E14000543
15	Basildon and Billericay	Mr John Baron MP	Leave	37.85162	Conservative	England	E14000544
16	Basingstoke	Rt Hon Maria Miller MP	Leave	44.60582	Conservative	England	E14000545
17	Bassetlaw	John Mann MP	Leave	34.49136	Labour	England	E14000546
18	Bath	Ben Howlett MP	Remain	66.79669	Conservative	England	E14000547
19	Batley and Spen	NA	Leave	37.56293	Labour	England	E14000548
20	Battersea	Jane Ellison MP	Remain	78.48832	Conservative	England	E14000549
21	Beaconsfield	Rt Hon Dominic Grieve QC MP	Remain	53.12072	Conservative	England	E14000550
22	Beckenham	Bob Stewart MP	Remain	53.73201	Conservative	England	E14000551
23	Bedford	Richard Fuller MP	Leave	43.46232	Conservative	England	E14000552
24	Bermondsey and Old Southwark	Neil Coyle MP	Remain	65.30017	Labour	England	E14000553
25	Berwick-upon-Tweed	Mrs Anne-Marie Trevelyan MP	Leave	39.82992	Conservative	England	E14000554
26	Bethnal Green and Bow	Rushanara Ali MP	Remain	68.10053	Labour	England	E14000555
27	Beverley and Holderness	Graham Stuart MP	Leave	39.65634	Conservative	England	E14000556
28	Bexhill and Battle	Huw Merriman MP	Leave	44.59756	Conservative	England	E14000557
29	Bexleyheath and Crayford	Rt Hon David Evennett MP	Leave	38.45023	Conservative	England	E14000558
30	Birkenhead	Rt Hon Frank Field MP	Leave	40.24149	Labour	England	E14000559
31	Birmingham, Edgbaston	Rt Hon Gisela Stuart MP	Leave	46.08723	Labour	England	E14000560
32	Birmingham, Erdington	Jack Dromey MP	Leave	35.33647	Labour	England	E14000561
33	Birmingham, Hall Green	Mr Roger Godsiff MP	Leave	49.79930	Labour	England	E14000562
34	Birmingham, Hodge Hill	Rt Hon Liam Byrne MP	Leave	36.73856	Labour	England	E14000563
35	Birmingham, Ladywood	Shabana Mahmood MP	Leave	41.94922	Labour	England	E14000564
36	Birmingham, Northfield	Richard Burden MP	Leave	37.11388	Labour	England	E14000565
37	Birmingham, Perry Barr	Mr Khalid Mahmood MP	Leave	38.21451	Labour	England	E14000566
38	Birmingham, Selly Oak	Steve McCabe MP	Leave	45.28274	Labour	England	E14000567
39	Birmingham, Yardley	Jess Phillips MP	Leave	36.94961	Labour	England	E14000568
40	Bishop Auckland	Helen Goodman MP	Leave	35.14629	Labour	England	E14000569
41	Blackburn	Kate Hollern MP	Leave	40.07895	Labour	England	E14000570
42	Blackley and Broughton	Graham Stringer MP	Leave	38.62033	Labour	England	E14000571
43	Blackpool North and Cleveleys	Paul Maynard MP	Leave	34.50704	Conservative	England	E14000572
44	Blackpool South	Gordon Marsden MP	Leave	33.02344	Labour	England	E14000573
45	Blaydon	Mr David Anderson MP	Leave	39.71593	Labour	England	E14000574
46	Blyth Valley	Mr Ronnie Campbell MP	Leave	35.91569	Labour	England	E14000575
47	Bognor Regis and Littlehampton	Nick Gibb MP	Leave	38.07265	Conservative	England	E14000576
48	Bolsover	Mr Dennis Skinner MP	Leave	33.47682	Labour	England	E14000577
49	Bolton North East	Mr David Crausby MP	Leave	38.12152	Labour	England	E14000578
50	Bolton South East	Yasmin Qureshi MP	Leave	35.91872	Labour	England	E14000579
51	Bolton West	Chris Green MP	Leave	39.45415	Conservative	England	E14000580
52	Bootle	Peter Dowd MP	Leave	40.84353	Labour	England	E14000581
53	Boston and Skegness	Matt Warman MP	Leave	32.03886	Conservative	England	E14000582
54	Bosworth	David Tredinnick MP	Leave	39.23591	Conservative	England	E14000583
55	Bournemouth East	Mr Tobias Ellwood MP	Leave	45.90306	Conservative	England	E14000584
56	Bournemouth West	Conor Burns MP	Leave	44.11753	Conservative	England	E14000585
57	Bracknell	Dr Phillip Lee MP	Leave	45.49704	Conservative	England	E14000586
58	Bradford East	Imran Hussain MP	Leave	36.79324	Labour	England	E14000587
59	Bradford South	Judith Cummins MP	Leave	33.74655	Labour	England	E14000588
60	Bradford West	Naz Shah MP	Leave	39.23720	Labour	England	E14000589
61	Braintree	James Cleverly MP	Leave	39.93232	Conservative	England	E14000590
62	Brent Central	Dawn Butler MP	Leave	49.28702	Labour	England	E14000591
63	Brent North	Barry Gardiner MP	Leave	44.83922	Labour	England	E14000592
64	Brentford and Isleworth	Ruth Cadbury MP	Remain	60.04562	Labour	England	E14000593
65	Brentwood and Ongar	Rt Hon Sir Eric Pickles MP	Leave	43.70215	Conservative	England	E14000594
66	Bridgwater and West Somerset	Mr Ian Liddell-Grainger MP	Leave	38.57319	Conservative	England	E14000595
67	Brigg and Goole	Andrew Percy MP	Leave	34.58482	Conservative	England	E14000596
68	Brighton, Kemptown	Simon Kirby MP	Remain	58.35135	Conservative	England	E14000597
69	Brighton, Pavilion	Caroline Lucas MP	Remain	80.56153	Green Party	England	E14000598
70	Bristol East	Kerry McCarthy MP	Leave	48.59807	Labour	England	E14000599
71	Bristol North West	Charlotte Leslie MP	Remain	55.81347	Conservative	England	E14000600
72	Bristol South	Karin Smyth MP	Remain	52.49776	Labour	England	E14000601
73	Bristol West	Thangam Debbonaire MP	Remain	80.97081	Labour	England	E14000602
74	Broadland	Rt Hon Keith Simpson MP	Leave	43.81521	Conservative	England	E14000603
75	Bromley and Chislehurst	Robert Neill MP	Remain	51.72656	Conservative	England	E14000604
76	Bromsgrove	Rt Hon Sajid Javid MP	Leave	42.78921	Conservative	England	E14000605
77	Broxbourne	Mr Charles Walker MP	Leave	38.97037	Conservative	England	E14000606
78	Broxtowe	Rt Hon Anna Soubry MP	Leave	46.41295	Conservative	England	E14000607
79	Buckingham	Rt Hon John Bercow MP	Remain	53.76580	Conservative	England	E14000608
80	Burnley	Julie Cooper MP	Leave	33.88369	Labour	England	E14000609
81	Burton	Andrew Griffiths MP	Leave	36.74258	Conservative	England	E14000610
82	Bury North	Mr David Nuttall MP	Leave	40.68554	Conservative	England	E14000611
83	Bury South	Mr Ivan Lewis MP	Leave	41.79414	Labour	England	E14000612
84	Bury St Edmunds	Jo Churchill MP	Leave	43.54106	Conservative	England	E14000613
85	Calder Valley	Craig Whittaker MP	Leave	44.90666	Conservative	England	E14000614
86	Camberwell and Peckham	Rt Hon Harriet Harman QC MP	Remain	61.93698	Labour	England	E14000615
87	Camborne and Redruth	George Eustice MP	Leave	41.55839	Conservative	England	E14000616
88	Cambridge	Daniel Zeichner MP	Remain	70.94921	Labour	England	E14000617
89	Cannock Chase	Amanda Milling MP	Leave	33.27786	Conservative	England	E14000618
90	Canterbury	Mr Julian Brazier MP	Remain	52.62869	Conservative	England	E14000619
91	Carlisle	John Stevenson MP	Leave	36.26863	Conservative	England	E14000620
92	Carshalton and Wallington	Rt Hon Tom Brake MP	Leave	45.21675	Liberal Democrat	England	E14000621
93	Castle Point	Rebecca Harris MP	Leave	34.06781	Conservative	England	E14000622
94	Central Devon	Mel Stride MP	Remain	51.56268	Conservative	England	E14000623
95	Central Suffolk and North Ipswich	Dr Poulter MP	Leave	44.97346	Conservative	England	E14000624
96	Charnwood	Edward Argar MP	Leave	41.71374	Conservative	England	E14000625
97	Chatham and Aylesford	Tracey Crouch MP	Leave	36.22020	Conservative	England	E14000626
98	Cheadle	Mary Robinson MP	Remain	53.35801	Conservative	England	E14000627
99	Chelmsford	Rt Hon Sir Simon Burns MP	Leave	45.14724	Conservative	England	E14000628
100	Chelsea and Fulham	Rt Hon Greg Hands MP	Remain	74.71346	Conservative	England	E14000629
101	Cheltenham	Alex Chalk MP	Remain	53.87328	Conservative	England	E14000630
102	Chesham and Amersham	Rt Hon Cheryl Gillan MP	Remain	58.69515	Conservative	England	E14000631
103	Chesterfield	Toby Perkins MP	Leave	37.86235	Labour	England	E14000632
104	Chichester	Rt Hon Andrew Tyrie MP	Remain	50.61031	Conservative	England	E14000633
105	Chingford and Woodford Green	Rt Hon Iain Duncan Smith MP	Leave	49.62666	Conservative	England	E14000634
106	Chippenham	Michelle Donelan MP	Leave	49.48050	Conservative	England	E14000635
107	Chipping Barnet	Rt Hon Theresa Villiers MP	Remain	59.23494	Conservative	England	E14000636
108	Chorley	Rt Hon Lindsay Hoyle MP	Leave	39.58510	Labour	England	E14000637
109	Christchurch	Mr Christopher Chope MP	Leave	42.93365	Conservative	England	E14000638
110	Cities of London and Westminster	Rt Hon Mark Field MP	Remain	74.81742	Conservative	England	E14000639
111	City of Chester	Christian Matheson MP	Remain	51.37342	Labour	England	E14000640
112	City of Durham	Dr Roberta Blackman-Woods MP	Leave	45.06139	Labour	England	E14000641
113	Clacton	Mr Douglas Carswell MP	Leave	33.38830	UKIP	England	E14000642
114	Cleethorpes	Martin Vickers MP	Leave	33.82607	Conservative	England	E14000643
115	Colchester	Will Quince MP	Leave	44.90643	Conservative	England	E14000644
116	Colne Valley	Jason McCartney MP	Leave	43.37428	Conservative	England	E14000645
117	Congleton	Fiona Bruce MP	Leave	44.69437	Conservative	England	E14000646
118	Copeland	Mr Jamie Reed MP	Leave	37.12644	Labour	England	E14000647
119	Corby	Tom Pursglove MP	Leave	39.10811	Conservative	England	E14000648
120	Coventry North East	Colleen Fletcher MP	Leave	36.87296	Labour	England	E14000649
121	Coventry North West	Mr Geoffrey Robinson MP	Leave	39.22114	Labour	England	E14000650
122	Coventry South	Mr Jim Cunningham MP	Leave	42.46165	Labour	England	E14000651
123	Crawley	Henry Smith MP	Leave	40.53378	Conservative	England	E14000652
124	Crewe and Nantwich	Edward Timpson MP	Leave	39.31403	Conservative	England	E14000653
125	Croydon Central	Gavin Barwell MP	Leave	45.30381	Conservative	England	E14000654
126	Croydon North	Mr Steve Reed MP	Leave	46.25084	Labour	England	E14000655
127	Croydon South	Chris Philp MP	Leave	49.45388	Conservative	England	E14000656
128	Dagenham and Rainham	Jon Cruddas MP	Leave	35.86623	Labour	England	E14000657
129	Darlington	Jenny Chapman MP	Leave	37.75014	Labour	England	E14000658
130	Dartford	Gareth Johnson MP	Leave	38.32625	Conservative	England	E14000659
131	Daventry	Chris Heaton-Harris MP	Leave	43.26748	Conservative	England	E14000660
132	Denton and Reddish	Andrew Gwynne MP	Leave	37.98699	Labour	England	E14000661
133	Derby North	Amanda Solloway MP	Leave	41.93657	Conservative	England	E14000662
134	Derby South	Rt Hon Margaret Beckett MP	Leave	36.79744	Labour	England	E14000663
135	Derbyshire Dales	Rt Hon Patrick McLoughlin MP	Leave	49.13903	Conservative	England	E14000664
136	Devizes	Claire Perry MP	Leave	44.60652	Conservative	England	E14000665
137	Dewsbury	Paula Sherriff MP	Leave	39.55193	Labour	England	E14000666
138	Don Valley	Rt Hon Caroline Flint MP	Leave	33.38878	Labour	England	E14000667
139	Doncaster Central	Rt Hon Dame Rosie Winterton MP	Leave	33.85762	Labour	England	E14000668
140	Doncaster North	Rt Hon Edward Miliband MP	Leave	31.88839	Labour	England	E14000669
141	Dover	Charlie Elphicke MP	Leave	38.46418	Conservative	England	E14000670
142	Dudley North	Ian Austin MP	Leave	33.30292	Labour	England	E14000671
143	Dudley South	Mike Wood MP	Leave	33.63889	Conservative	England	E14000672
144	Dulwich and West Norwood	Helen Hayes MP	Remain	75.60741	Labour	England	E14000673
145	Ealing Central and Acton	Dr Rupa Huq MP	Remain	69.58669	Labour	England	E14000674
146	Ealing North	Stephen Pound MP	Leave	47.23275	Labour	England	E14000675
147	Ealing, Southall	Mr Virendra Sharma MP	Leave	48.76958	Labour	England	E14000676
148	Easington	Grahame Morris MP	Leave	31.95732	Labour	England	E14000677
149	East Devon	Rt Hon Hugo Swire MP	Leave	47.85649	Conservative	England	E14000678
150	East Ham	Rt Hon Stephen Timms MP	Leave	42.77126	Labour	England	E14000679
151	East Hampshire	Damian Hinds MP	Remain	53.03032	Conservative	England	E14000680
152	East Surrey	Mr Sam Gyimah MP	Leave	48.62046	Conservative	England	E14000681
153	East Worthing and Shoreham	Tim Loughton MP	Leave	48.43208	Conservative	England	E14000682
154	East Yorkshire	Rt Hon Sir Greg Knight MP	Leave	37.29109	Conservative	England	E14000683
155	Eastbourne	Caroline Ansell MP	Leave	42.67680	Conservative	England	E14000684
156	Eastleigh	Mims Davies MP	Leave	43.44535	Conservative	England	E14000685
157	Eddisbury	Antoinette Sandbach MP	Leave	44.61328	Conservative	England	E14000686
158	Edmonton	Kate Osamor MP	Leave	39.28219	Labour	England	E14000687
159	Ellesmere Port and Neston	Justin Madders MP	Leave	41.10869	Labour	England	E14000688
160	Elmet and Rothwell	Alec Shelbrooke MP	Leave	43.00186	Conservative	England	E14000689
161	Eltham	Clive Efford MP	Leave	48.42405	Labour	England	E14000690
162	Enfield North	Rt Hon Joan Ryan MP	Leave	43.07643	Labour	England	E14000691
163	Enfield, Southgate	Mr David Burrowes MP	Remain	57.41108	Conservative	England	E14000692
164	Epping Forest	Mrs Eleanor Laing MP	Leave	44.64482	Conservative	England	E14000693
165	Epsom and Ewell	Rt Hon Chris Grayling MP	Remain	52.47004	Conservative	England	E14000694
166	Erewash	Maggie Throup MP	Leave	37.74201	Conservative	England	E14000695
167	Erith and Thamesmead	Teresa Pearce MP	Leave	37.56011	Labour	England	E14000696
168	Esher and Walton	Dominic Raab MP	Remain	60.87542	Conservative	England	E14000697
169	Exeter	Rt Hon Ben Bradshaw MP	Remain	51.27120	Labour	England	E14000698
170	Fareham	Suella Fernandes MP	Leave	43.79101	Conservative	England	E14000699
171	Faversham and Mid Kent	Helen Whately MP	Leave	43.83487	Conservative	England	E14000700
172	Feltham and Heston	Seema Malhotra MP	Leave	41.02092	Labour	England	E14000701
173	Filton and Bradley Stoke	Jack Lopresti MP	Leave	47.25278	Conservative	England	E14000702
174	Finchley and Golders Green	Mike Freer MP	Remain	64.86241	Conservative	England	E14000703
175	Folkestone and Hythe	Damian Collins MP	Leave	40.56981	Conservative	England	E14000704
176	Forest of Dean	Rt Hon Mark Harper MP	Leave	42.39782	Conservative	England	E14000705
177	Fylde	Mark Menzies MP	Leave	40.26822	Conservative	England	E14000706
178	Gainsborough	Sir Edward Leigh MP	Leave	37.87616	Conservative	England	E14000707
179	Garston and Halewood	Maria Eagle MP	Leave	44.39496	Labour	England	E14000708
180	Gateshead	Ian Mearns MP	Leave	38.82249	Labour	England	E14000709
181	Gedling	Vernon Coaker MP	Leave	43.52277	Labour	England	E14000710
182	Gillingham and Rainham	Rehman Chishti MP	Leave	36.93960	Conservative	England	E14000711
183	Gloucester	Richard Graham MP	Leave	39.30213	Conservative	England	E14000712
184	Gosport	Caroline Dinenage MP	Leave	38.07544	Conservative	England	E14000713
185	Grantham and Stamford	Nick Boles MP	Leave	40.76685	Conservative	England	E14000714
186	Gravesham	Adam Holloway MP	Leave	37.58799	Conservative	England	E14000715
187	Great Grimsby	Melanie Onn MP	Leave	32.43049	Labour	England	E14000716
188	Great Yarmouth	Brandon Lewis MP	Leave	34.10895	Conservative	England	E14000717
189	Greenwich and Woolwich	Matthew Pennycook MP	Remain	58.15267	Labour	England	E14000718
190	Guildford	Rt Hon Anne Milton MP	Remain	57.78919	Conservative	England	E14000719
191	Hackney North and Stoke Newington	Ms Diane Abbott MP	Remain	72.44011	Labour	England	E14000720
192	Hackney South and Shoreditch	Meg Hillier MP	Remain	73.25205	Labour	England	E14000721
193	Halesowen and Rowley Regis	James Morris MP	Leave	35.74607	Conservative	England	E14000722
194	Halifax	Holly Lynch MP	Leave	36.70200	Labour	England	E14000723
195	Haltemprice and Howden	Rt Hon David Davis MP	Leave	41.05268	Conservative	England	E14000724
196	Halton	Derek Twigg MP	Leave	37.03778	Labour	England	E14000725
197	Hammersmith	Andy Slaughter MP	Remain	71.12920	Labour	England	E14000726
198	Hampstead and Kilburn	Tulip Siddiq MP	Remain	76.68298	Labour	England	E14000727
199	Harborough	Rt Hon Sir Edward Garnier QC MP	Leave	45.55373	Conservative	England	E14000728
200	Harlow	Rt Hon Robert Halfon MP	Leave	36.49475	Conservative	England	E14000729
201	Harrogate and Knaresborough	Andrew Jones MP	Remain	50.01713	Conservative	England	E14000730
202	Harrow East	Bob Blackman MP	Leave	46.24983	Conservative	England	E14000731
203	Harrow West	Gareth Thomas MP	Leave	49.90977	Labour	England	E14000732
204	Hartlepool	Mr Iain Wright MP	Leave	32.65893	Labour	England	E14000733
205	Harwich and North Essex	Mr Bernard Jenkin MP	Leave	43.73952	Conservative	England	E14000734
206	Hastings and Rye	Rt Hon Amber Rudd MP	Leave	44.28555	Conservative	England	E14000735
207	Havant	Mr Alan Mak MP	Leave	39.19379	Conservative	England	E14000736
208	Hayes and Harlington	John McDonnell MP	Leave	38.98027	Labour	England	E14000737
209	Hazel Grove	William Wragg MP	Leave	45.53935	Conservative	England	E14000738
210	Hemel Hempstead	Rt Hon Mike Penning MP	Leave	44.35010	Conservative	England	E14000739
211	Hemsworth	Jon Trickett MP	Leave	34.18865	Labour	England	E14000740
212	Hendon	Dr Matthew Offord MP	Leave	49.84683	Conservative	England	E14000741
213	Henley	John Howell MP	Remain	59.61446	Conservative	England	E14000742
214	Hereford and South Herefordshire	Jesse Norman MP	Leave	40.87663	Conservative	England	E14000743
215	Hertford and Stortford	Mr Mark Prisk MP	Remain	50.89881	Conservative	England	E14000744
216	Hertsmere	Oliver Dowden MP	Leave	49.03661	Conservative	England	E14000745
217	Hexham	Guy Opperman MP	Leave	49.40357	Conservative	England	E14000746
218	Heywood and Middleton	Liz McInnes MP	Leave	36.17471	Labour	England	E14000747
219	High Peak	Andrew Bingham MP	Leave	47.79516	Conservative	England	E14000748
220	Hitchin and Harpenden	Rt Hon Peter Lilley MP	Remain	60.26854	Conservative	England	E14000749
221	Holborn and St Pancras	Keir Starmer MP	Remain	72.30785	Labour	England	E14000750
222	Hornchurch and Upminster	Dame Angela Watkinson MP	Leave	37.44940	Conservative	England	E14000751
223	Hornsey and Wood Green	Catherine West MP	Remain	82.36436	Labour	England	E14000752
224	Horsham	Jeremy Quin MP	Leave	49.99929	Conservative	England	E14000753
225	Houghton and Sunderland South	Bridget Phillipson MP	Leave	33.75061	Labour	England	E14000754
226	Hove	Peter Kyle MP	Remain	71.43275	Labour	England	E14000755
227	Huddersfield	Mr Barry Sheerman MP	Leave	39.50195	Labour	England	E14000756
228	Huntingdon	Mr Jonathan Djanogly MP	Leave	45.55625	Conservative	England	E14000757
229	Hyndburn	Graham Jones MP	Leave	34.69247	Labour	England	E14000758
230	Ilford North	Wes Streeting MP	Leave	47.83360	Labour	England	E14000759
231	Ilford South	Mike Gapes MP	Leave	45.06857	Labour	England	E14000760
232	Ipswich	Ben Gummer MP	Leave	41.73901	Conservative	England	E14000761
233	Isle of Wight	Mr Andrew Turner MP	Leave	40.72905	Conservative	England	E14000762
234	Islington North	Rt Hon Jeremy Corbyn MP	Remain	82.30499	Labour	England	E14000763
235	Islington South and Finsbury	Emily Thornberry MP	Remain	75.64867	Labour	England	E14000764
236	Jarrow	Mr Stephen Hepburn MP	Leave	36.54307	Labour	England	E14000765
237	Keighley	Kris Hopkins MP	Leave	42.56084	Conservative	England	E14000766
238	Kenilworth and Southam	Rt Hon Jeremy Wright QC MP	Remain	53.19066	Conservative	England	E14000767
239	Kensington	Victoria Borwick MP	Remain	74.82366	Conservative	England	E14000768
240	Kettering	Mr Philip Hollobone MP	Leave	38.78408	Conservative	England	E14000769
241	Kingston and Surbiton	James Berry MP	Remain	58.16880	Conservative	England	E14000770
242	Kingston upon Hull East	Karl Turner MP	Leave	32.03503	Labour	England	E14000771
243	Kingston upon Hull North	Diana Johnson MP	Leave	36.91237	Labour	England	E14000772
244	Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle	Rt Hon Alan Johnson MP	Leave	34.87771	Labour	England	E14000773
245	Kingswood	Chris Skidmore MP	Leave	41.44406	Conservative	England	E14000774
246	Knowsley	Rt Hon George Howarth MP	Leave	37.08703	Labour	England	E14000775
247	Lancaster and Fleetwood	Cat Smith MP	Leave	44.65901	Labour	England	E14000776
248	Leeds Central	Rt Hon Hilary Benn MP	Leave	41.02984	Labour	England	E14000777
249	Leeds East	Richard Burgon MP	Leave	35.84307	Labour	England	E14000778
250	Leeds North East	Fabian Hamilton MP	Remain	58.78481	Labour	England	E14000779
251	Leeds North West	Greg Mulholland MP	Remain	53.65381	Liberal Democrat	England	E14000780
252	Leeds West	Rachel Reeves MP	Leave	42.87869	Labour	England	E14000781
253	Leicester East	Rt Hon Keith Vaz MP	Leave	39.69203	Labour	England	E14000782
254	Leicester South	Jonathan Ashworth MP	Leave	45.29788	Labour	England	E14000783
255	Leicester West	Liz Kendall MP	Leave	38.32368	Labour	England	E14000784
256	Leigh	Rt Hon Andy Burnham MP	Leave	35.54709	Labour	England	E14000785
257	Lewes	Maria Caulfield MP	Remain	57.18027	Conservative	England	E14000786
258	Lewisham East	Heidi Alexander MP	Remain	52.70393	Labour	England	E14000787
259	Lewisham West and Penge	Jim Dowd MP	Remain	61.51399	Labour	England	E14000788
260	Lewisham, Deptford	Vicky Foxcroft MP	Remain	67.62037	Labour	England	E14000789
261	Leyton and Wanstead	John Cryer MP	Remain	57.06588	Labour	England	E14000790
262	Lichfield	Michael Fabricant MP	Leave	41.44401	Conservative	England	E14000791
263	Lincoln	Karl McCartney MP	Leave	40.08916	Conservative	England	E14000792
264	Liverpool, Riverside	Mrs Louise Ellman MP	Remain	51.19776	Labour	England	E14000793
265	Liverpool, Walton	Steve Rotheram MP	Leave	37.69355	Labour	England	E14000794
266	Liverpool, Wavertree	Luciana Berger MP	Leave	47.76999	Labour	England	E14000795
267	Liverpool, West Derby	Stephen Twigg MP	Leave	39.65550	Labour	England	E14000796
268	Loughborough	Rt Hon Nicky Morgan MP	Leave	44.42266	Conservative	England	E14000797
269	Louth and Horncastle	Victoria Atkins MP	Leave	35.50503	Conservative	England	E14000798
270	Ludlow	Mr Philip Dunne MP	Leave	42.95880	Conservative	England	E14000799
271	Luton North	Kelvin Hopkins MP	Leave	38.21147	Labour	England	E14000800
272	Luton South	Mr Gavin Shuker MP	Leave	38.19322	Labour	England	E14000801
273	Macclesfield	David Rutley MP	Remain	50.60686	Conservative	England	E14000802
274	Maidenhead	Rt Hon Theresa May MP	Remain	56.05528	Conservative	England	E14000803
275	Maidstone and The Weald	Mrs Helen Grant MP	Leave	43.39109	Conservative	England	E14000804
276	Makerfield	Yvonne Fovargue MP	Leave	34.18438	Labour	England	E14000805
277	Maldon	Rt Hon John Whittingdale MP	Leave	40.67821	Conservative	England	E14000806
278	Manchester Central	Lucy Powell MP	Leave	48.66765	Labour	England	E14000807
279	Manchester, Gorton	Rt Hon Sir Gerald Kaufman MP	Leave	48.29298	Labour	England	E14000808
280	Manchester, Withington	Jeff Smith MP	Remain	67.51072	Labour	England	E14000809
281	Mansfield	Sir Alan Meale MP	Leave	33.32638	Labour	England	E14000810
282	Meon Valley	George Hollingbery MP	Leave	46.84464	Conservative	England	E14000811
283	Meriden	Rt Hon Caroline Spelman MP	Leave	41.05852	Conservative	England	E14000812
284	Mid Bedfordshire	Nadine Dorries MP	Leave	45.33481	Conservative	England	E14000813
285	Mid Derbyshire	Pauline Latham MP	Leave	44.79197	Conservative	England	E14000814
286	Mid Dorset and North Poole	Michael Tomlinson MP	Leave	45.30506	Conservative	England	E14000815
287	Mid Norfolk	George Freeman MP	Leave	40.90647	Conservative	England	E14000816
288	Mid Sussex	Rt Hon Sir Nicholas Soames MP	Remain	52.44416	Conservative	England	E14000817
289	Mid Worcestershire	Nigel Huddleston MP	Leave	40.74568	Conservative	England	E14000818
290	Middlesbrough	Andy McDonald MP	Leave	33.42073	Labour	England	E14000819
291	Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland	Tom Blenkinsop MP	Leave	34.58445	Labour	England	E14000820
292	Milton Keynes North	Mark Lancaster MP	Leave	45.96077	Conservative	England	E14000821
293	Milton Keynes South	Iain Stewart MP	Leave	45.08752	Conservative	England	E14000822
294	Mitcham and Morden	Siobhain McDonagh MP	Leave	47.48419	Labour	England	E14000823
295	Mole Valley	Sir Paul Beresford MP	Remain	57.31282	Conservative	England	E14000824
296	Morecambe and Lunesdale	David Morris MP	Leave	39.38606	Conservative	England	E14000825
297	Morley and Outwood	Andrea Jenkyns MP	Leave	38.72962	Conservative	England	E14000826
298	New Forest East	Rt Hon Dr Julian Lewis MP	Leave	42.95158	Conservative	England	E14000827
299	New Forest West	Rt Hon Sir Desmond Swayne MP	Leave	46.47130	Conservative	England	E14000828
300	Newark	Robert Jenrick MP	Leave	43.46572	Conservative	England	E14000829
301	Newbury	Richard Benyon MP	Remain	50.65394	Conservative	England	E14000830
302	Newcastle upon Tyne Central	Chi Onwurah MP	Leave	43.19130	Labour	England	E14000831
303	Newcastle upon Tyne East	Rt Hon Nicholas Brown MP	Leave	48.00971	Labour	England	E14000832
304	Newcastle upon Tyne North	Catherine McKinnell MP	Leave	43.31906	Labour	England	E14000833
305	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Paul Farrelly MP	Leave	37.57625	Labour	England	E14000834
306	Newton Abbot	Anne Marie Morris MP	Leave	44.20073	Conservative	England	E14000835
307	Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford	Rt Hon Yvette Cooper MP	Leave	33.09325	Labour	England	E14000836
308	North Cornwall	Scott Mann MP	Leave	41.57573	Conservative	England	E14000837
309	North Devon	Peter Heaton-Jones MP	Leave	42.90807	Conservative	England	E14000838
310	North Dorset	Simon Hoare MP	Leave	45.65144	Conservative	England	E14000839
311	North Durham	Mr Kevan Jones MP	Leave	36.44409	Labour	England	E14000840
312	North East Bedfordshire	Rt Hon Alistair Burt MP	Leave	45.57647	Conservative	England	E14000841
313	North East Cambridgeshire	Stephen Barclay MP	Leave	35.40199	Conservative	England	E14000842
314	North East Derbyshire	Natascha Engel MP	Leave	38.18351	Labour	England	E14000843
315	North East Hampshire	Mr Ranil Jayawardena MP	Remain	52.33861	Conservative	England	E14000844
316	North East Hertfordshire	Sir Oliver Heald QC MP	Leave	49.60312	Conservative	England	E14000845
317	North East Somerset	Mr Jacob Rees-Mogg MP	Remain	50.00627	Conservative	England	E14000846
318	North Herefordshire	Bill Wiggin MP	Leave	44.15071	Conservative	England	E14000847
319	North Norfolk	Rt Hon Norman Lamb MP	Leave	41.01328	Liberal Democrat	England	E14000848
320	North Shropshire	Rt Hon Owen Paterson MP	Leave	38.78258	Conservative	England	E14000849
321	North Somerset	Rt Hon Dr Liam Fox MP	Remain	53.25132	Conservative	England	E14000850
322	North Swindon	Justin Tomlinson MP	Leave	39.69948	Conservative	England	E14000851
323	North Thanet	Sir Roger Gale MP	Leave	38.50831	Conservative	England	E14000852
324	North Tyneside	Mary Glindon MP	Leave	38.28064	Labour	England	E14000853
325	North Warwickshire	Craig Tracey MP	Leave	34.96377	Conservative	England	E14000854
326	North West Cambridgeshire	Mr Shailesh Vara MP	Leave	41.25326	Conservative	England	E14000855
327	North West Durham	Pat Glass MP	Leave	37.38574	Labour	England	E14000856
328	North West Hampshire	Kit Malthouse MP	Leave	45.90931	Conservative	England	E14000857
329	North West Leicestershire	Andrew Bridgen MP	Leave	39.64145	Conservative	England	E14000858
330	North West Norfolk	Sir Henry Bellingham MP	Leave	37.08727	Conservative	England	E14000859
331	North Wiltshire	James Gray MP	Leave	48.66658	Conservative	England	E14000860
332	Northampton North	Michael Ellis MP	Leave	38.56707	Conservative	England	E14000861
333	Northampton South	David Mackintosh MP	Leave	39.22381	Conservative	England	E14000862
334	Norwich North	Chloe Smith MP	Leave	44.28068	Conservative	England	E14000863
335	Norwich South	Clive Lewis MP	Remain	56.30241	Labour	England	E14000864
336	Nottingham East	Chris Leslie MP	Leave	45.79216	Labour	England	E14000865
337	Nottingham North	Mr Graham Allen MP	Leave	33.96228	Labour	England	E14000866
338	Nottingham South	Lilian Greenwood MP	Leave	43.68229	Labour	England	E14000867
339	Nuneaton	Mr Marcus Jones MP	Leave	35.60145	Conservative	England	E14000868
340	Old Bexley and Sidcup	Rt Hon James Brokenshire MP	Leave	40.87375	Conservative	England	E14000869
341	Oldham East and Saddleworth	Debbie Abrahams MP	Leave	37.12270	Labour	England	E14000870
342	Oldham West and Royton	Jim McMahon MP	Leave	37.09486	Labour	England	E14000871
343	Orpington	Joseph Johnson MP	Leave	45.23700	Conservative	England	E14000872
344	Oxford East	Rt Hon Andrew Smith MP	Remain	62.42277	Labour	England	E14000873
345	Oxford West and Abingdon	Nicola Blackwood MP	Remain	68.02344	Conservative	England	E14000874
346	Pendle	Andrew Stephenson MP	Leave	35.49402	Conservative	England	E14000875
347	Penistone and Stocksbridge	Angela Smith MP	Leave	38.95717	Labour	England	E14000876
348	Penrith and The Border	Rory Stewart MP	Leave	42.06850	Conservative	England	E14000877
349	Peterborough	Mr Stewart Jackson MP	Leave	37.49097	Conservative	England	E14000878
350	Plymouth, Moor View	Johnny Mercer MP	Leave	34.47799	Conservative	England	E14000879
351	Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport	Oliver Colvile MP	Leave	43.69736	Conservative	England	E14000880
352	Poole	Mr Robert Syms MP	Leave	43.96013	Conservative	England	E14000881
353	Poplar and Limehouse	Jim Fitzpatrick MP	Remain	62.07652	Labour	England	E14000882
354	Portsmouth North	Penny Mordaunt MP	Leave	37.98739	Conservative	England	E14000883
355	Portsmouth South	Mrs Flick Drummond MP	Leave	44.65225	Conservative	England	E14000884
356	Preston	Mr Mark Hendrick MP	Leave	38.46734	Labour	England	E14000885
357	Pudsey	Stuart Andrew MP	Leave	49.16963	Conservative	England	E14000886
358	Putney	Rt Hon Justine Greening MP	Remain	74.82067	Conservative	England	E14000887
359	Rayleigh and Wickford	Rt Hon Mark Francois MP	Leave	36.91114	Conservative	England	E14000888
360	Reading East	Mr Rob Wilson MP	Remain	55.90215	Conservative	England	E14000889
361	Reading West	Alok Sharma MP	Leave	46.81698	Conservative	England	E14000890
362	Redcar	Anna Turley MP	Leave	32.41947	Labour	England	E14000891
363	Redditch	Karen Lumley MP	Leave	37.87327	Conservative	England	E14000892
364	Reigate	Crispin Blunt MP	Remain	52.03563	Conservative	England	E14000893
365	Ribble Valley	Mr Nigel Evans MP	Leave	40.29518	Conservative	England	E14000894
366	Richmond (Yorks)	Rishi Sunak MP	Leave	40.15314	Conservative	England	E14000895
367	Richmond Park	Zac Goldsmith MP	Remain	77.11149	Conservative	England	E14000896
368	Rochdale	Simon Danczuk MP	Leave	36.99654	Labour	England	E14000897
369	Rochester and Strood	Kelly Tolhurst MP	Leave	38.62477	Conservative	England	E14000898
370	Rochford and Southend East	James Duddridge MP	Leave	38.47526	Conservative	England	E14000899
371	Romford	Andrew Rosindell MP	Leave	38.08108	Conservative	England	E14000900
372	Romsey and Southampton North	Caroline Nokes MP	Remain	51.18540	Conservative	England	E14000901
373	Rossendale and Darwen	Jake Berry MP	Leave	37.95023	Conservative	England	E14000902
374	Rother Valley	Rt Hon Kevin Barron MP	Leave	34.79886	Labour	England	E14000903
375	Rotherham	Sarah Champion MP	Leave	33.20915	Labour	England	E14000904
376	Rugby	Mark Pawsey MP	Leave	41.26953	Conservative	England	E14000905
377	Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner	Mr Nick Hurd MP	Remain	53.95217	Conservative	England	E14000906
378	Runnymede and Weybridge	Rt Hon Philip Hammond MP	Remain	50.48412	Conservative	England	E14000907
379	Rushcliffe	Rt Hon Kenneth Clarke QC MP	Remain	55.95099	Conservative	England	E14000908
380	Rutland and Melton	Rt Hon Sir Alan Duncan MP	Leave	45.38761	Conservative	England	E14000909
381	Saffron Walden	Rt Hon Sir Alan Haselhurst MP	Leave	49.38167	Conservative	England	E14000910
382	Salford and Eccles	Rebecca Long Bailey MP	Leave	44.12468	Labour	England	E14000911
383	Salisbury	John Glen MP	Leave	49.42441	Conservative	England	E14000912
384	Scarborough and Whitby	Mr Robert Goodwill MP	Leave	37.47805	Conservative	England	E14000913
385	Scunthorpe	Nic Dakin MP	Leave	32.96296	Labour	England	E14000914
386	Sedgefield	Phil Wilson MP	Leave	35.39503	Labour	England	E14000915
387	Sefton Central	Bill Esterson MP	Leave	47.54615	Labour	England	E14000916
388	Selby and Ainsty	Nigel Adams MP	Leave	42.15678	Conservative	England	E14000917
389	Sevenoaks	Rt Hon Michael Fallon MP	Leave	49.53292	Conservative	England	E14000918
390	Sheffield Central	Paul Blomfield MP	Remain	51.88405	Labour	England	E14000919
391	Sheffield South East	Mr Clive Betts MP	Leave	35.46526	Labour	England	E14000920
392	Sheffield, Brightside and Hillsborough	Gill Furniss MP	Leave	35.77051	Labour	England	E14000921
393	Sheffield, Hallam	Rt Hon Nick Clegg MP	Remain	61.52083	Liberal Democrat	England	E14000922
394	Sheffield, Heeley	Louise Haigh MP	Leave	41.69509	Labour	England	E14000923
395	Sherwood	Mark Spencer MP	Leave	37.28962	Conservative	England	E14000924
396	Shipley	Philip Davies MP	Leave	45.29088	Conservative	England	E14000925
397	Shrewsbury and Atcham	Daniel Kawczynski MP	Leave	45.17013	Conservative	England	E14000926
398	Sittingbourne and Sheppey	Gordon Henderson MP	Leave	35.06897	Conservative	England	E14000927
399	Skipton and Ripon	Julian Smith MP	Leave	45.84392	Conservative	England	E14000928
400	Sleaford and North Hykeham	Stephen Phillips QC MP	Leave	39.22434	Conservative	England	E14000929
401	Slough	Rt Hon Fiona Mactaggart MP	Leave	40.93806	Labour	England	E14000930
402	Solihull	Julian Knight MP	Leave	44.62474	Conservative	England	E14000931
403	Somerton and Frome	David Warburton MP	Leave	49.75458	Conservative	England	E14000932
404	South Basildon and East Thurrock	Stephen Metcalfe MP	Leave	34.10856	Conservative	England	E14000933
405	South Cambridgeshire	Heidi Allen MP	Remain	62.86468	Conservative	England	E14000934
406	South Derbyshire	Heather Wheeler MP	Leave	38.80641	Conservative	England	E14000935
407	South Dorset	Richard Drax MP	Leave	41.64566	Conservative	England	E14000936
408	South East Cambridgeshire	Lucy Frazer MP	Remain	54.54874	Conservative	England	E14000937
409	South East Cornwall	Mrs Sheryll Murray MP	Leave	43.04997	Conservative	England	E14000938
410	South Holland and The Deepings	Rt Hon John Hayes MP	Leave	34.70158	Conservative	England	E14000939
411	South Leicestershire	Alberto Costa MP	Leave	40.65808	Conservative	England	E14000940
412	South Norfolk	Mr Richard Bacon MP	Leave	47.56677	Conservative	England	E14000941
413	South Northamptonshire	Andrea Leadsom MP	Leave	45.71197	Conservative	England	E14000942
414	South Ribble	Seema Kennedy MP	Leave	39.87840	Conservative	England	E14000943
415	South Shields	Mrs Emma Lewell-Buck MP	Leave	34.52164	Labour	England	E14000944
416	South Staffordshire	Rt Hon Gavin Williamson MP	Leave	35.73380	Conservative	England	E14000945
417	South Suffolk	James Cartlidge MP	Leave	45.55325	Conservative	England	E14000946
418	South Swindon	Robert Buckland MP	Leave	43.62080	Conservative	England	E14000947
419	South Thanet	Craig Mackinlay MP	Leave	41.20647	Conservative	England	E14000948
420	South West Bedfordshire	Andrew Selous MP	Leave	41.19207	Conservative	England	E14000949
421	South West Devon	Mr Gary Streeter MP	Leave	44.20375	Conservative	England	E14000950
422	South West Hertfordshire	Mr David Gauke MP	Remain	56.09492	Conservative	England	E14000951
423	South West Norfolk	Rt Hon Elizabeth Truss MP	Leave	36.21933	Conservative	England	E14000952
424	South West Surrey	Rt Hon Jeremy Hunt MP	Remain	60.46629	Conservative	England	E14000953
425	South West Wiltshire	Dr Andrew Murrison MP	Leave	43.60411	Conservative	England	E14000954
426	Southampton, Itchen	Royston Smith MP	Leave	40.85717	Conservative	England	E14000955
427	Southampton, Test	Dr Alan Whitehead MP	Leave	44.86518	Labour	England	E14000956
428	Southend West	Sir David Amess MP	Leave	43.02764	Conservative	England	E14000957
429	Southport	John Pugh MP	Leave	42.34990	Liberal Democrat	England	E14000958
430	Spelthorne	Kwasi Kwarteng MP	Leave	43.47059	Conservative	England	E14000959
431	St Albans	Mrs Anne Main MP	Remain	63.63298	Conservative	England	E14000960
432	St Austell and Newquay	Steve Double MP	Leave	39.33138	Conservative	England	E14000961
433	St Helens North	Conor McGinn MP	Leave	36.81243	Labour	England	E14000962
434	St Helens South and Whiston	Marie Rimmer MP	Leave	37.67113	Labour	England	E14000963
435	St Ives	Derek Thomas MP	Leave	45.88630	Conservative	England	E14000964
436	Stafford	Jeremy Lefroy MP	Leave	39.98818	Conservative	England	E14000965
437	Staffordshire Moorlands	Karen Bradley MP	Leave	37.74536	Conservative	England	E14000966
438	Stalybridge and Hyde	Jonathan Reynolds MP	Leave	38.61289	Labour	England	E14000967
439	Stevenage	Stephen McPartland MP	Leave	41.29306	Conservative	England	E14000968
440	Stockport	Ann Coffey MP	Leave	47.56150	Labour	England	E14000969
441	Stockton North	Alex Cunningham MP	Leave	33.42528	Labour	England	E14000970
442	Stockton South	James Wharton MP	Leave	37.28974	Conservative	England	E14000971
443	Stoke-on-Trent Central	Tristram Hunt MP	Leave	34.55085	Labour	England	E14000972
444	Stoke-on-Trent North	Ruth Smeeth MP	Leave	32.60729	Labour	England	E14000973
445	Stoke-on-Trent South	Robert Flello MP	Leave	33.19828	Labour	England	E14000974
446	Stone	Sir William Cash MP	Leave	40.35936	Conservative	England	E14000975
447	Stourbridge	Margot James MP	Leave	37.88850	Conservative	England	E14000976
448	Stratford-on-Avon	Nadhim Zahawi MP	Remain	50.41796	Conservative	England	E14000977
449	Streatham	Mr Chuka Umunna MP	Remain	70.51386	Labour	England	E14000978
450	Stretford and Urmston	Kate Green MP	Leave	47.13455	Labour	England	E14000979
451	Stroud	Neil Carmichael MP	Remain	54.46575	Conservative	England	E14000980
452	Suffolk Coastal	Dr Thérèse Coffey MP	Leave	47.26441	Conservative	England	E14000981
453	Sunderland Central	Julie Elliott MP	Leave	36.08864	Labour	England	E14000982
454	Surrey Heath	Rt Hon Michael Gove MP	Leave	48.53344	Conservative	England	E14000983
455	Sutton and Cheam	Paul Scully MP	Leave	49.26548	Conservative	England	E14000984
456	Sutton Coldfield	Rt Hon Andrew Mitchell MP	Leave	45.83412	Conservative	England	E14000985
457	Tamworth	Christopher Pincher MP	Leave	36.18341	Conservative	England	E14000986
458	Tatton	Rt Hon George Osborne MP	Remain	52.21657	Conservative	England	E14000987
459	Taunton Deane	Rebecca Pow MP	Leave	44.62636	Conservative	England	E14000988
460	Telford	Lucy Allan MP	Leave	35.32091	Conservative	England	E14000989
461	Tewkesbury	Mr Laurence Robertson MP	Leave	44.86410	Conservative	England	E14000990
462	The Cotswolds	Geoffrey Clifton-Brown MP	Remain	53.70635	Conservative	England	E14000991
463	The Wrekin	Mark Pritchard MP	Leave	38.13899	Conservative	England	E14000992
464	Thirsk and Malton	Kevin Hollinrake MP	Leave	42.17399	Conservative	England	E14000993
465	Thornbury and Yate	Luke Hall MP	Leave	45.65151	Conservative	England	E14000994
466	Thurrock	Jackie Doyle-Price MP	Leave	35.40240	Conservative	England	E14000995
467	Tiverton and Honiton	Neil Parish MP	Leave	43.41720	Conservative	England	E14000996
468	Tonbridge and Malling	Tom Tugendhat MP	Leave	48.91283	Conservative	England	E14000997
469	Tooting	Dr Rosena Allin-Khan MP	Remain	75.25024	Labour	England	E14000998
470	Torbay	Kevin Foster MP	Leave	38.92700	Conservative	England	E14000999
471	Torridge and West Devon	Mr Geoffrey Cox QC MP	Leave	43.79727	Conservative	England	E14001000
472	Totnes	Dr Sarah Wollaston MP	Remain	51.34668	Conservative	England	E14001001
473	Tottenham	Rt Hon David Lammy MP	Remain	53.45226	Labour	England	E14001002
474	Truro and Falmouth	Sarah Newton MP	Remain	53.36998	Conservative	England	E14001003
475	Tunbridge Wells	Rt Hon Greg Clark MP	Remain	55.15656	Conservative	England	E14001004
476	Twickenham	Dr Tania Mathias MP	Remain	71.54404	Conservative	England	E14001005
477	Tynemouth	Rt Hon Alan Campbell MP	Leave	45.69231	Labour	England	E14001006
478	Uxbridge and South Ruislip	Boris Johnson MP	Leave	43.66407	Conservative	England	E14001007
479	Vauxhall	Kate Hoey MP	Remain	73.01249	Labour	England	E14001008
480	Wakefield	Mary Creagh MP	Leave	36.10926	Labour	England	E14001009
481	Wallasey	Ms Angela Eagle MP	Leave	41.61866	Labour	England	E14001010
482	Walsall North	Mr David Winnick MP	Leave	31.08231	Labour	England	E14001011
483	Walsall South	Valerie Vaz MP	Leave	36.76880	Labour	England	E14001012
484	Walthamstow	Stella Creasy MP	Remain	56.80097	Labour	England	E14001013
485	Wansbeck	Ian Lavery MP	Leave	37.04577	Labour	England	E14001014
486	Wantage	Mr Edward Vaizey MP	Remain	54.69941	Conservative	England	E14001015
487	Warley	Rt Hon John Spellar MP	Leave	37.29797	Labour	England	E14001016
488	Warrington North	Helen Jones MP	Leave	39.05665	Labour	England	E14001017
489	Warrington South	David Mowat MP	Leave	45.22714	Conservative	England	E14001018
490	Warwick and Leamington	Chris White MP	Remain	56.02619	Conservative	England	E14001019
491	Washington and Sunderland West	Mrs Sharon Hodgson MP	Leave	34.43310	Labour	England	E14001020
492	Watford	Richard Harrington MP	Leave	46.86839	Conservative	England	E14001021
493	Waveney	Peter Aldous MP	Leave	37.21019	Conservative	England	E14001022
494	Wealden	Nusrat Ghani MP	Remain	50.78828	Conservative	England	E14001023
495	Weaver Vale	Graham Evans MP	Leave	43.82372	Conservative	England	E14001024
496	Wellingborough	Mr Peter Bone MP	Leave	37.71701	Conservative	England	E14001025
497	Wells	James Heappey MP	Leave	45.58974	Conservative	England	E14001026
498	Welwyn Hatfield	Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP	Leave	45.47294	Conservative	England	E14001027
499	Wentworth and Dearne	Rt Hon John Healey MP	Leave	32.48911	Labour	England	E14001028
500	West Bromwich East	Tom Watson MP	Leave	34.14078	Labour	England	E14001029
501	West Bromwich West	Mr Adrian Bailey MP	Leave	32.48763	Labour	England	E14001030
502	West Dorset	Rt Hon Oliver Letwin MP	Remain	50.65724	Conservative	England	E14001031
503	West Ham	Lyn Brown MP	Leave	48.57649	Labour	England	E14001032
504	West Lancashire	Rosie Cooper MP	Leave	41.39242	Labour	England	E14001033
505	West Suffolk	Rt Hon Matthew Hancock MP	Leave	38.45347	Conservative	England	E14001034
506	West Worcestershire	Harriett Baldwin MP	Leave	47.63726	Conservative	England	E14001035
507	Westminster North	Ms Karen Buck MP	Remain	65.96571	Labour	England	E14001036
508	Westmorland and Lonsdale	Tim Farron MP	Remain	50.19891	Liberal Democrat	England	E14001037
509	Weston-Super-Mare	John Penrose MP	Leave	41.20370	Conservative	England	E14001038
510	Wigan	Lisa Nandy MP	Leave	35.01654	Labour	England	E14001039
511	Wimbledon	Stephen Hammond MP	Remain	73.91992	Conservative	England	E14001040
512	Winchester	Steve Brine MP	Remain	61.57504	Conservative	England	E14001041
513	Windsor	Adam Afriyie MP	Remain	52.17294	Conservative	England	E14001042
514	Wirral South	Alison McGovern MP	Leave	46.53407	Labour	England	E14001043
515	Wirral West	Margaret Greenwood MP	Leave	49.27110	Labour	England	E14001044
516	Witham	Rt Hon Priti Patel MP	Leave	41.32694	Conservative	England	E14001045
517	Witney	Rt Hon David Cameron MP	Remain	54.79183	Conservative	England	E14001046
518	Woking	Mr Jonathan Lord MP	Remain	53.93197	Conservative	England	E14001047
519	Wokingham	Rt Hon John Redwood MP	Remain	55.21289	Conservative	England	E14001048
520	Wolverhampton North East	Emma Reynolds MP	Leave	32.68297	Labour	England	E14001049
521	Wolverhampton South East	Rt Hon Pat McFadden MP	Leave	32.49642	Labour	England	E14001050
522	Wolverhampton South West	Rob Marris MP	Leave	39.75039	Labour	England	E14001051
523	Worcester	Mr Robin Walker MP	Leave	43.64068	Conservative	England	E14001052
524	Workington	Sue Hayman MP	Leave	36.35132	Labour	England	E14001053
525	Worsley and Eccles South	Barbara Keeley MP	Leave	37.95000	Labour	England	E14001054
526	Worthing West	Sir Peter Bottomley MP	Leave	45.52322	Conservative	England	E14001055
527	Wycombe	Mr Steve Baker MP	Leave	48.23007	Conservative	England	E14001056
528	Wyre and Preston North	Mr Ben Wallace MP	Leave	41.77203	Conservative	England	E14001057
529	Wyre Forest	Mark Garnier MP	Leave	37.71918	Conservative	England	E14001058
530	Wythenshawe and Sale East	Mike Kane MP	Leave	43.36584	Labour	England	E14001059
531	Yeovil	Marcus Fysh MP	Leave	39.56649	Conservative	England	E14001060
532	York Central	Rachael Maskell MP	Remain	52.47939	Labour	England	E14001061
533	York Outer	Julian Sturdy MP	Leave	49.11066	Conservative	England	E14001062
552	Aberdeen North	Kirsty Blackman MP	Remain	62.90403	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000001
553	Aberdeen South	Callum McCaig MP	Remain	66.69646	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000002
554	Airdrie and Shotts	Neil Gray MP	Remain	56.23871	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000003
555	Angus	Mike Weir MP	Remain	57.78520	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000004
556	Argyll and Bute	Brendan O’Hara MP	Remain	62.90761	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000005
557	Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock	Corri Wilson MP	Remain	58.22815	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000006
558	Banff and Buchan	Dr Eilidh Whiteford MP	Remain	56.15656	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000007
559	Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk	Calum Kerr MP	Remain	61.41145	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000008
560	Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross	Dr Paul Monaghan MP	Remain	58.40054	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000009
561	Central Ayrshire	Dr Philippa Whitford MP	Remain	58.02589	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000010
562	Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill	Philip Boswell MP	Remain	57.19003	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000011
563	Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East	Stuart C. McDonald MP	Remain	58.88644	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000012
564	Dumfries and Galloway	Richard Arkless MP	Remain	59.04182	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000013
565	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	Rt Hon David Mundell MP	Remain	61.66645	Conservative	Scotland	S14000014
566	Dundee East	Stewart Hosie MP	Remain	60.02623	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000015
567	Dundee West	Chris Law MP	Remain	61.04964	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000016
568	Dunfermline and West Fife	Douglas Chapman MP	Remain	61.38540	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000017
569	East Dunbartonshire	John Nicolson MP	Remain	68.78673	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000018
570	East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow	Dr Lisa Cameron MP	Remain	60.11700	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000019
571	East Lothian	George Kerevan MP	Remain	65.44570	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000020
572	East Renfrewshire	Kirsten Oswald MP	Remain	66.34651	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000021
573	Edinburgh East	Tommy Sheppard MP	Remain	73.10335	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000022
574	Edinburgh North and Leith	Deidre Brock MP	Remain	82.55039	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000023
575	Edinburgh South	Ian Murray MP	Remain	81.72832	Labour	Scotland	S14000024
576	Edinburgh South West	Joanna Cherry QC MP	Remain	72.74860	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000025
577	Edinburgh West	Michelle Thomson MP	Remain	70.93306	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000026
578	Na h-Eileanan An Iar	Angus Brendan MacNeil MP	Remain	58.33504	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000027
579	Falkirk	John Mc Nally MP	Remain	58.51893	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000028
580	Glasgow Central	Alison Thewliss MP	Remain	68.58157	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000029
581	Glasgow East	Natalie McGarry MP	Remain	55.82305	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000030
582	Glasgow North	Patrick Grady MP	Remain	74.74228	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000031
583	Glasgow North East	Anne McLaughlin MP	Remain	57.75795	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000032
584	Glasgow North West	Carol Monaghan MP	Remain	64.53606	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000033
585	Glasgow South	Stewart Malcolm McDonald MP	Remain	66.12639	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000034
586	Glasgow South West	Chris Stephens MP	Remain	57.51975	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000035
587	Glenrothes	Peter Grant MP	Remain	56.44717	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000036
588	Gordon	Rt Hon Alex Salmond MP	Remain	61.91873	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000037
589	Inverclyde	Ronnie Cowan MP	Remain	58.03261	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000038
590	Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey	Drew Hendry MP	Remain	61.37071	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000039
591	Kilmarnock and Loudoun	Alan Brown MP	Remain	57.66129	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000040
592	Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath	Roger Mullin MP	Remain	58.97678	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000041
593	Lanark and Hamilton East	Angela Crawley MP	Remain	58.96978	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000042
594	Linlithgow and East Falkirk	Martyn Day MP	Remain	59.92193	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000043
595	Livingston	Hannah Bardell MP	Remain	59.87275	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000044
596	Midlothian	Owen Thompson MP	Remain	61.97635	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000045
597	Moray	Rt Hon Angus Robertson MP	Remain	58.61394	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000046
598	Motherwell and Wishaw	Marion Fellows MP	Remain	56.64004	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000047
599	North Ayrshire and Arran	Patricia Gibson MP	Remain	57.98725	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000048
600	North East Fife	Stephen Gethins MP	Remain	66.89271	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000049
601	Ochil and South Perthshire	Ms Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh MP	Remain	62.61677	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000050
602	Orkney and Shetland	Rt Hon Alistair Carmichael MP	Remain	61.06525	Liberal Democrat	Scotland	S14000051
603	Paisley and Renfrewshire North	Gavin Newlands MP	Remain	60.45008	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000052
604	Paisley and Renfrewshire South	Mhairi Black MP	Remain	59.57463	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000053
605	Perth and North Perthshire	Pete Wishart MP	Remain	61.95182	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000054
606	Ross, Skye and Lochaber	Ian Blackford MP	Remain	63.33389	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000055
607	Rutherglen and Hamilton West	Margaret Ferrier MP	Remain	58.59853	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000056
608	Stirling	Steven Paterson MP	Remain	66.62716	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000057
609	West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine	Stuart Blair Donaldson MP	Remain	65.24501	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000058
610	West Dunbartonshire	Martin Docherty-Hughes MP	Remain	57.58746	Scottish National Party	Scotland	S14000059
611	Ynys Mon	Albert Owen MP	Leave	45.92776	Labour	Wales	W07000041
612	Delyn	Rt Hon David Hanson MP	Leave	45.51641	Labour	Wales	W07000042
613	Alyn and Deeside	Mark Tami MP	Leave	44.46600	Labour	Wales	W07000043
614	Wrexham	Ian C. Lucas MP	Leave	43.64726	Labour	Wales	W07000044
615	Llanelli	Nia Griffith MP	Leave	41.33506	Labour	Wales	W07000045
616	Gower	Byron Davies MP	Remain	50.30419	Conservative	Wales	W07000046
617	Swansea West	Geraint Davies MP	Remain	50.10055	Labour	Wales	W07000047
618	Swansea East	Carolyn Harris MP	Leave	40.94856	Labour	Wales	W07000048
619	Aberavon	Stephen Kinnock MP	Leave	40.31131	Labour	Wales	W07000049
620	Cardiff Central	Jo Stevens MP	Remain	59.21361	Labour	Wales	W07000050
621	Cardiff North	Craig Williams MP	Remain	58.33832	Conservative	Wales	W07000051
622	Rhondda	Chris Bryant MP	Leave	39.14954	Labour	Wales	W07000052
623	Torfaen	Nick Thomas-Symonds MP	Leave	40.57168	Labour	Wales	W07000053
624	Monmouth	David T. C. Davies MP	Remain	52.50755	Conservative	Wales	W07000054
625	Newport East	Jessica Morden MP	Leave	42.42585	Labour	Wales	W07000055
626	Newport West	Paul Flynn MP	Leave	46.92373	Labour	Wales	W07000056
627	Arfon	Hywel Williams MP	Remain	53.21047	Plaid Cymru	Wales	W07000057
628	Aberconwy	Guto Bebb MP	Leave	48.19148	Conservative	Wales	W07000058
629	Clwyd West	Rt Hon David Jones MP	Leave	46.60634	Conservative	Wales	W07000059
630	Vale of Clwyd	Dr James Davies MP	Leave	42.90806	Conservative	Wales	W07000060
631	Dwyfor Meirionnydd	Liz Saville Roberts MP	Leave	46.91059	Plaid Cymru	Wales	W07000061
632	Clwyd South	Susan Elan Jones MP	Leave	42.76190	Labour	Wales	W07000062
633	Montgomeryshire	Glyn Davies MP	Leave	46.01936	Conservative	Wales	W07000063
634	Ceredigion	Mr Mark Williams MP	Remain	52.35783	Liberal Democrat	Wales	W07000064
635	Preseli Pembrokeshire	Rt Hon Stephen Crabb MP	Leave	45.17310	Conservative	Wales	W07000065
636	Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South	Simon Hart MP	Leave	44.18520	Conservative	Wales	W07000066
637	Carmarthen East and Dinefwr	Jonathan Edwards MP	Leave	45.51539	Plaid Cymru	Wales	W07000067
638	Brecon and Radnorshire	Chris Davies MP	Leave	48.91088	Conservative	Wales	W07000068
639	Neath	Christina Rees MP	Leave	42.13602	Labour	Wales	W07000069
640	Cynon Valley	Rt Hon Ann Clwyd MP	Leave	40.63476	Labour	Wales	W07000070
641	Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney	Gerald Jones MP	Leave	39.76750	Labour	Wales	W07000071
642	Blaenau Gwent	Nick Smith MP	Leave	38.59069	Labour	Wales	W07000072
643	Bridgend	Mrs Madeleine Moon MP	Leave	45.20336	Labour	Wales	W07000073
644	Ogmore	Chris Elmore MP	Leave	41.02649	Labour	Wales	W07000074
645	Pontypridd	Owen Smith MP	Leave	46.34345	Labour	Wales	W07000075
646	Caerphilly	Wayne David MP	Leave	43.49427	Labour	Wales	W07000076
647	Islwyn	Chris Evans MP	Leave	40.67607	Labour	Wales	W07000077
648	Vale of Glamorgan	Rt Hon Alun Cairns MP	Leave	48.37491	Conservative	Wales	W07000078
649	Cardiff West	Kevin Brennan MP	Remain	57.21191	Labour	Wales	W07000079
650	Cardiff South and Penarth	Stephen Doughty MP	Remain	52.94807	Labour	Wales	W07000080

Irregularities

I was initially concerned at the linearity of the rate of signature growth during the day (wondering if this might actually be an artefact of the back-end computer systems operating close to capacity), but so far I have only found evidence of limited irregularities in the UK data. Investigation on Sunday (26 June) morning of the activity found two constituencies where something odd has happened. I found these by dividing the data up by constituency and correlating the rate of signature growth by constituency with the national average. One of these was very obvious: the constituency with the most signatures, Cities of London and Westminster, had an implausibly large amount of activity overnight (unless there are a load of traders in Hong Kong …)

Overall this leads me to suggest that at the time of initial writing ~30,000 out of 2787004 UK signatures (~1.1%) might be invalid.

For what it’s worth the petitions team removed these fake signatures at around 2pm on Sunday.

Collect data

all_sigcounts=t(sapply(pet_data,function(x) x$data$attributes$signatures_by_constituency$signature_count))
colnames(all_sigcounts)=pet_data[[1]]$data$attributes$signatures_by_constituency$name
rownames(all_sigcounts)=sdf$time
all_sigcounts=cbind(sdf['time'], all_sigcounts)

Now let’s calculate the correlation of all constituencies vs the UK average and look for discrepancies

library(dplyr)
cor_vs_totaluk=apply(all_sigcounts[,-1], 2, cor, sdf$uksigs)
data.frame(constit=names(cor_vs_totaluk), cor=cor_vs_totaluk)  %>%
  arrange(cor) %>%
  top_n(10, desc(cor)) %>%
  kable

constit	cor
Cities of London and Westminster	-0.0361037
Bracknell	0.7513190
Worsley and Eccles South	0.8210328
Bradford West	0.9908169
Na h-Eileanan an Iar	0.9952896
Rhondda	0.9954370
Airdrie and Shotts	0.9956330
West Dunbartonshire	0.9960348
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock	0.9967067
Rutherglen and Hamilton West	0.9967177

A histogram makes these two outliers pretty obvious:

hist(cor_vs_totaluk, col='red', breaks=50)

hist(cor_vs_totaluk, col='red', breaks=50, ylim=c(0,50))

We can plot the data for the 2 dubious constituencies

qplot(time, `Cities of London and Westminster`,data=all_sigcounts)+
  scale_x_datetime(date_labels="%a %H:%M", date_breaks="12 hours")

qplot(time, `Worsley and Eccles South`,data=all_sigcounts) + 
  scale_x_datetime(date_labels="%a %H:%M", date_breaks="12 hours")

which shows both the suspicious night time activity and its correction.

For comparison here are the 3rd and 9th constituencies (with much higher correlation scores):

qplot(time, `Rhondda`,data=all_sigcounts) + 
  scale_x_datetime(date_labels="%a %H:%M", date_breaks="12 hours")

qplot(time, `St Ives`,data=all_sigcounts) + 
  scale_x_datetime(date_labels="%a %H:%M", date_breaks="12 hours")

(A few) more fake signatures

On Tues, I spotted another attempt to add fake signatures with post-code(s) in Bracknell. This took place late on Monday afternoon/evening.

qplot(time, `Bracknell`,data=all_sigcounts) + 
  scale_x_datetime(date_labels="%a %H:%M", date_breaks="12 hours")

This may be more obvious if we plot as signatures / minute.

with(all_sigcounts,
     qplot(time[-1], diff(`Bracknell`)/diff(as.integer(time)/60), ylim=c(0,NA),
           xlab=NULL, ylab='Signatures/minute') + geom_smooth(method='loess', span=.08)+
  scale_x_datetime(date_labels="%a %H:%M", date_breaks="12 hours"))

## Warning: Removed 2 rows containing non-finite values (stat_smooth).

## Warning: Removed 2 rows containing missing values (geom_point).

## Warning: Removed 2 rows containing missing values (geom_smooth).

We can add a prediction of what the data should have looked like by calculating a linear model of Bracknell vs the whole UK before the spike and then applying that to the a smoothed version of the whole UK data.

bdf=mutate(sdf, Bracknell=all_sigcounts$Bracknell)
brack.lm=lm(Bracknell~0+uksigs, data=subset(bdf, time<ISOdatetime(2016,6,27,14,0,0, tz='Europe/London')))

all.smooth=loess(uksigs~as.integer(time), data=sdf, span=0.08)
bdf$Bracknell.pred=all.smooth$fitted*coef(brack.lm)

plot(Bracknell~time,data=bdf, type='l', main='~3400 Fake Signatures in Bracknell (Now Removed)')
lines(Bracknell.pred~time, data=bdf, col='red', lwd=2)
legend(min(bdf$time),max(bdf$Bracknell)*0.9, legend=c('predicted','observed'),
       col=c('red','black'), lty=1, bty='n')

And the (pretty precisely) estimated number of fake signatures is:

nfakesigs=with(subset(bdf, time>ISOdatetime(2016,6,28,0,0,0, tz='Europe/London') & 
                        time<ISOdatetime(2016,6,28,20,0,0, tz='Europe/London')),
     c(mean=mean(Bracknell-Bracknell.pred), sd=sd(Bracknell-Bracknell.pred)))
nfakesigs

##        mean          sd 
## 3339.067675    3.483332

ie. 3339.067675 (+/- 3.4833316 sd) or 0.0876254 % of the total UK sigs.

On Tue night, the petition.parliament.uk team confirmed that they had found these independently on Mon night and they removed them from the reported data. Apparently my numbers were off by 80; they found 3420. Note to self 2 sf was sufficient, 95 CI would have been good but the small baseline shift at the start of the activity spike was likely the main cause of the 2% discrepancy in the effect size prediction.

Other irregularities

There have been other irregularities that are harder for me to spot with these data than the Petitions team, whom I assume have acess to additional information (IP?). This is evident from cases where corrections have been made:

dd=apply(all_sigcounts[,-1],2,diff)
# this is not quite correct because it is sigs_removed + sigs added in prev 2 min
sigs_removed=-apply(dd, 2, min)
plot(table(sigs_removed)[-1], log='x', xlab='Signatures removed', ylab='Frequency')

## Warning in axis(...): "log" is not a graphical parameter

These fake signatures, account for a further 2972 of the UK signatures.

Notes

Personal

For the record, I am a scientist and I voted remain because in my view that was objectively the best decision for the country and my own profession.

Technical note

This is an R Markdown document. Markdown is a simple formatting syntax for authoring HTML, PDF, and MS Word documents. For more details on using R Markdown see http://rmarkdown.rstudio.com.

When you click the Knit button a document will be generated that includes both content as well as the output of any embedded R code chunks within the document.

Acknowledgements

UK constituency data came from https://github.com/kjhealy/uk-elections and https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/offices/commons/commonslibrary/statistics-for-uk-constituencies/. EU Referendum data was downloaded from http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/. Thanks to all three as well as https://petition.parliament.uk/ for making data available.

EURef2Petition

Gregory Jefferis

26 June 2016