Project 4 - Exploratory Data Analysis

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ABSTRACT

Literal Text - use for inspiration ONLY

The aim of the ICB Project is to shed light on a pervasive phenomenon of world politics. There are four specific objectives: (1) the accumulation and dissemination of knowledge about interstate crises and protracted conflicts; (2) the generation and testing of hypotheses about the effects of crisis-induced stress on coping and choice by decision makers; (3) the discovery of patterns in key crisis dimensions - onset, actor behavior and crisis management, superpower activity, involvement by international organizations, and outcome; and (4) application of the lessons of history to the advancement of international peace and world order.

Dataset: ICB - International Crisis Behavior URL: http://sites.duke.edu/icbdata/data-collections/

GENERAL DEFINITION: * “Crisis management is the practice of attempting to avoid an outcome in interstate relations that leads to violence or war, without abandoning at the same time one’s position.”

The aim of the ICB Project is to shed light on a pervasive phenomenon of world politics. There are four specific objectives: (1) the accumulation and dissemination of knowledge about interstate crises and protracted conflicts; (2) the generation and testing of hypotheses about the effects of crisis-induced stress on coping and choice by decision makers; (3) the discovery of patterns in key crisis dimensions - onset, actor behavior and crisis management, superpower activity, involvement by international organizations, and outcome; (4) and application of the lessons of history to the advancement of international peace and world order.

## 'data.frame':    1036 obs. of  95 variables:
##  $ icb2    : Factor w/ 2 levels "ICB2","UCB2": 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ crisno  : int  1 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 ...
##  $ cracno  : int  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ...
##  $ cracid  : int  365 93 94 365 365 366 368 367 315 290 ...
##  $ actor   : Factor w/ 143 levels "AFG","ALB","ALG",..: 109 91 29 109 109 42 77 73 33 103 ...
##  $ systrgyr: int  1918 1918 1918 1918 1918 1918 1918 1918 1919 1919 ...
##  $ systrgmo: int  5 5 5 6 11 11 11 11 1 1 ...
##  $ systrgda: int  NA 25 25 23 18 18 18 18 15 15 ...
##  $ crisname: Factor w/ 469 levels "AALAND ISLANDS",..: 377 113 113 378 27 27 27 27 431 431 ...
##  $ triggr  : int  9 7 4 7 6 9 9 9 2 7 ...
##  $ yrtrig  : int  1918 1918 1919 1918 1918 1918 1918 1918 1919 1919 ...
##  $ motrig  : int  5 5 1 6 11 11 12 12 1 1 ...
##  $ datrig  : int  NA 25 25 23 18 22 NA NA 15 23 ...
##  $ trigent : int  996 94 996 997 366 365 365 365 290 315 ...
##  $ trigloc : int  2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ southv  : int  220 94 93 200 366 365 365 365 290 315 ...
##  $ southpow: int  3 1 1 3 1 3 3 3 2 1 ...
##  $ sizedu  : int  1 NA NA 1 1 NA NA NA NA NA ...
##  $ strcdu  : int  1 1 NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ comlev  : int  7 1 1 7 8 8 8 8 3 3 ...
##  $ majres  : int  8 3 6 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 ...
##  $ yerres  : int  1918 1918 1919 1918 1918 1918 1918 1918 1919 1919 ...
##  $ monres  : int  5 5 1 7 11 11 12 12 1 1 ...
##  $ dayres  : int  28 30 28 1 22 22 NA NA 23 23 ...
##  $ trgresra: int  14 6 4 9 5 1 NA NA 9 1 ...
##  $ crismg  : int  8 4 4 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 ...
##  $ cenvio  : int  4 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 ...
##  $ sevvio  : int  3 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 ...
##  $ usinv   : int  7 7 7 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 ...
##  $ usfavr  : int  3 1 3 3 3 1 1 1 3 3 ...
##  $ suinv   : int  9 1 1 9 9 8 8 8 1 1 ...
##  $ sufavr  : int  8 5 5 8 8 3 3 3 5 5 ...
##  $ gbinv   : int  7 1 1 8 3 6 3 3 3 3 ...
##  $ gbfavr  : int  NA 5 5 NA NA NA NA NA 3 3 ...
##  $ frinv   : int  2 1 1 8 3 1 3 3 3 3 ...
##  $ frfavr  : int  NA 5 5 NA NA NA NA NA 3 3 ...
##  $ itinv   : int  1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 ...
##  $ itfavr  : int  NA 5 5 NA NA NA NA NA 3 3 ...
##  $ grinv   : int  1 1 1 1 8 1 1 8 1 1 ...
##  $ grfavr  : int  NA 5 5 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA ...
##  $ jpinv   : int  7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 ...
##  $ jpfavr  : int  NA 5 5 NA NA NA NA NA 3 3 ...
##  $ globorg : int  1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ globact : int  1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ globfavr: int  1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ regorg  : int  0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
##  $ regact  : int  0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
##  $ rofavr  : int  0 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
##  $ outcom  : int  1 1 4 1 4 1 1 1 2 2 ...
##  $ outfor  : int  6 4 4 6 9 8 8 8 9 9 ...
##  $ outevl  : int  2 2 3 2 3 2 2 2 4 4 ...
##  $ outesr  : int  1 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 ...
##  $ yrterm  : int  1920 1918 1919 1919 1920 1920 1920 1920 1920 1920 ...
##  $ moterm  : int  4 12 9 9 8 2 7 8 7 7 ...
##  $ daterm  : int  1 15 3 27 11 2 12 11 28 28 ...
##  $ trgterra: int  686 205 222 462 632 438 574 603 560 552 ...
##  $ resterra: int  673 199 218 453 627 438 574 603 551 552 ...
##  $ actloc  : int  30 42 42 30 30 34 34 34 31 31 ...
##  $ geog    : int  30 42 42 30 34 34 34 34 31 31 ...
##  $ cractloc: int  1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 ...
##  $ noactr  : int  7 5 6 5 8 8 8 8 3 3 ...
##  $ stainsys: int  47 47 49 47 47 47 47 47 49 49 ...
##  $ period  : int  1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ syslev  : int  2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ pc      : int  2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ pcid    : int  27 6 6 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
##  $ viol    : int  3 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 ...
##  $ iwc     : int  1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ powdis  : int  NA 1 -1 NA 12 -12 -12 -12 -1 1 ...
##  $ gpinv   : int  7 4 4 7 7 7 7 7 3 3 ...
##  $ powinv  : int  1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ age     : int  1 3 3 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 ...
##  $ territ  : int  3 1 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 ...
##  $ regime  : int  2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 4 ...
##  $ durreg  : int  1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ allycap : int  4 2 1 4 4 2 2 2 1 1 ...
##  $ globmemb: int  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 ...
##  $ nuclear : int  1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
##  $ powsta  : int  3 1 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 2 ...
##  $ issue   : int  1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 ...
##  $ chissu  : int  4 6 6 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 ...
##  $ gravty  : int  2 1 2 2 3 6 6 6 3 3 ...
##  $ pethin  : int  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
##  $ col     : int  1 NA NA 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 ...
##  $ unemp   : int  NA NA NA NA NA 4 4 4 4 4 ...
##  $ inflat  : int  1 1 1 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 ...
##  $ foodpr  : int  1 NA NA 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 ...
##  $ labstr  : int  1 NA NA 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 ...
##  $ short   : int  1 NA NA 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 ...
##  $ econdt  : int  1 NA NA 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 ...
##  $ regrep  : int  NA 1 1 NA NA 4 4 4 4 4 ...
##  $ socunr  : int  1 NA NA 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 ...
##  $ massvl  : int  1 1 1 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 ...
##  $ gvinst  : int  1 2 NA 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 ...
##  $ sourdt  : int  3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 ...

##   icb2 crisno cracno cracid actor systrgyr systrgmo systrgda
## 1 ICB2      1      1    365   RUS     1918        5       NA
## 2 ICB2      2      2     93   NIC     1918        5       25
## 3 ICB2      2      3     94   COS     1918        5       25
## 4 ICB2      3      4    365   RUS     1918        6       23
## 5 ICB2      4      5    365   RUS     1918       11       18
## 6 ICB2      4      6    366   EST     1918       11       18
##               crisname triggr yrtrig motrig datrig trigent trigloc southv
## 1  RUSSIAN CIVIL WAR I      9   1918      5     NA     996       2    220
## 2     COSTA RICAN COUP      7   1918      5     25      94       1     94
## 3     COSTA RICAN COUP      4   1919      1     25     996       2     93
## 4 RUSSIAN CIVIL WAR II      7   1918      6     23     997       1    200
## 5  BALTIC INDEPENDENCE      6   1918     11     18     366       1    366
## 6  BALTIC INDEPENDENCE      9   1918     11     22     365       1    365
##   southpow sizedu strcdu comlev majres yerres monres dayres trgresra
## 1        3      1      1      7      8   1918      5     28       14
## 2        1     NA      1      1      3   1918      5     30        6
## 3        1     NA     NA      1      6   1919      1     28        4
## 4        3      1      1      7      8   1918      7      1        9
## 5        1      1      1      8      8   1918     11     22        5
## 6        3     NA      1      8      9   1918     11     22        1
##   crismg cenvio sevvio usinv usfavr suinv sufavr gbinv gbfavr frinv frfavr
## 1      8      4      3     7      3     9      8     7     NA     2     NA
## 2      4      1      1     7      1     1      5     1      5     1      5
## 3      4      1      1     7      3     1      5     1      5     1      5
## 4      8      4      3     3      3     9      8     8     NA     8     NA
## 5      8      4      3     3      3     9      8     3     NA     3     NA
## 6      8      4      3     3      1     8      3     6     NA     1     NA
##   itinv itfavr grinv grfavr jpinv jpfavr globorg globact globfavr regorg
## 1     1     NA     1     NA     7     NA       1       1        1      0
## 2     1      5     1      5     1      5       1       1        1      1
## 3     1      5     1      5     1      5       1       1        1      1
## 4     1     NA     1     NA     1     NA       1       1        1      0
## 5     1     NA     8     NA     1     NA       1       1        1      0
## 6     1     NA     1     NA     1     NA       1       1        1      0
##   regact rofavr outcom outfor outevl outesr yrterm moterm daterm trgterra
## 1      0      0      1      6      2      1   1920      4      1      686
## 2      1      5      1      4      2      2   1918     12     15      205
## 3      1      5      4      4      3      2   1919      9      3      222
## 4      0      0      1      6      2      1   1919      9     27      462
## 5      0      0      4      9      3      2   1920      8     11      632
## 6      0      0      1      8      2      2   1920      2      2      438
##   resterra actloc geog cractloc noactr stainsys period syslev pc pcid viol
## 1      673     30   30        1      7       47      1      2  2   27    3
## 2      199     42   42        1      5       47      1      1  2    6    1
## 3      218     42   42        1      6       49      1      1  2    6    2
## 4      453     30   30        1      5       47      1      2  2   27    3
## 5      627     30   34        1      8       47      1      2  1    0    3
## 6      438     34   34        2      8       47      1      1  1    0    3
##   iwc powdis gpinv powinv age territ regime durreg allycap globmemb
## 1   1     NA     7      1   1      3      2      1       4        4
## 2   1      1     4      1   3      1      2      2       2        4
## 3   1     -1     4      1   3      1      2      1       1        4
## 4   1     NA     7      1   1      3      2      1       4        4
## 5   1     12     7      1   1      3      2      1       4        4
## 6   1    -12     7      1   3      1      2      1       2        4
##   nuclear powsta issue chissu gravty pethin col unemp inflat foodpr labstr
## 1       1      3     1      4      2      0   1    NA      1      1      1
## 2       1      1     1      6      1      0  NA    NA      1     NA     NA
## 3       1      1     1      6      2      0  NA    NA      1     NA     NA
## 4       1      3     1      4      2      0   1    NA      1      1      1
## 5       1      3     2      6      3      0   1    NA      1      1      1
## 6       1      1     2      6      6      0   4     4      4      4      4
##   short econdt regrep socunr massvl gvinst sourdt
## 1     1      1     NA      1      1      1      3
## 2    NA     NA      1     NA      1      2      2
## 3    NA     NA      1     NA      1     NA      2
## 4     1      1     NA      1      1      1      3
## 5     1      1     NA      1      1      1      3
## 6     4      4      4      4      4      4      3

DataFrame Transformations

Validate with external Data Source Section

1. - Russian Civil War
1. - World War 2 starts
1. - Cold War Starts
1. - The 1947 Arab-Israeli war
1. - Berlin Crisis
1. - The 1973 Arab-Israeli War
1. - Soviet-Afghan War
1. - 1987 Sino-Indian skirmish
1. - Gulf War
1. - Kosovo War
1. - Iraq War
1. - Syrian Civil War

MISC Plotting Experiments.

Attributes Explored:

“Crisis Trigger”
“Crisis Issue”
“Major Response”
“Coping Technique”
“Actor Power Status
“Threat Power Status”
“Crisis Violence”
“Political Regime”
“Alliance Patterns
“Nuclear Capability”
“Gravest Threat”
“Crisis Outcome”

Definitions of Attributes Explored:

“Crisis Trigger” >
“Crisis Issue” >
“Major Response” >
“Coping Technique” >
“Actor Power Status >
“Threat Power Status” >
“Crisis Violence” >
“Political Regime” >
“Alliance Patterns >
“Nuclear Capability” >
“Gravest Threat” >
“Crisis Outcome” >

Initial Experiments: Participants, Belligerents, single attribute explorations.

ACTORS (Participants) MAP Exlporation:

Major Actors (those with the highest crisis counts) Worldwide

“China”,
“Egypt”,
“France”,
“Germany”,
“Greece”,
“India”,
“Iraq”,
“Israel”,
“Japan”,
“Libya”,
“Pakistan”,
“Russia”,
“Syria”,
“Turkey”,
“United Kingdom”,
“USA”,
“Serbia”

ACTORS (Participants) Exlporation:

USA CRISIS (Adversary) MAPS (Cold War ERA)

## Cambodia
##   crisname Crisis_Result
## 1 MAYAGUEZ       Victory
##  
## China
##           crisname Crisis_Result
## 1    KOREAN WAR II    Compromise
## 2  TAIWAN STRAIT I      Stalmate
## 3 TAIWAN STRAIT II       Victory
##  
## Cuba
##      crisname Crisis_Result
## 1 BAY OF PIGS        Defeat
##  
## Vietnam
##               crisname Crisis_Result
## 1       GULF OF TONKIN      Stalmate
## 2  VIETNAM SPRING OFF.       Victory
## 3 INVASION OF CAMBODIA      Stalmate
## 4 VIETNAM PORTS MINING    Compromise
## 5    CHRISTMAS BOMBING    Compromise
##  
## France
##        crisname Crisis_Result
## 1 DIEN BIEN PHU        Defeat
##  
## Grenada
##              crisname Crisis_Result
## 1 INVASION OF GRENADA       Victory
##  
## Guatemala
##    crisname Crisis_Result
## 1 GUATEMALA       Victory
##  
## Iran
##              crisname Crisis_Result
## 1 US HOSTAGES IN IRAN    Compromise
## 2     IRAN NUCLEAR II    Compromise
##  
## Iraq
##              crisname Crisis_Result
## 1  IRAQ/LEB. UPHEAVAL       Victory
## 2 IRAQ DEPLOY./KUWAIT       Victory
## 3       DESERT STRIKE       Victory
## 4            UNSCOM I       Victory
## 5           UNSCOM II    Compromise
## 6  IRAQ REGIME CHANGE       Victory
##  
## Jordan
##          crisname Crisis_Result
## 1 BLACK SEPTEMBER       Victory
##  
## Libya
##          crisname Crisis_Result
## 1     LIBYAN JETS       Victory
## 2 LIBYAN CIVILWAR       Victory
##  
## MULTI_STATE_ACTOR
##                 crisname Crisis_Result
## 1         KOREAN WAR III       Victory
## 2 OCTOBER-YOM KIPPUR WAR       Victory
## 3               GULF WAR       Victory
##  
## NON_STATE_ACTOR
##                 crisname Crisis_Result
## 1        CHINA CIVIL WAR        Defeat
## 2   PATHET LAO OFFENSIVE       Victory
## 3       VIET CONG ATTACK       Victory
## 4                NAM THA       Victory
## 5               CONGO II       Victory
## 6                 PLEIKU      Stalmate
## 7  DOMINICAN INTERVENTN.       Victory
## 8          TET OFFENSIVE        Defeat
## 9          WAR IN ANGOLA        Defeat
## 10              SHABA II       Victory
## 11      GULF OF SYRTE II       Victory
## 12     HAITI MIL. REGIME       Victory
## 13   US EMBASSY BOMBINGS    Compromise
## 14        AFGHANISTAN/US       Victory
##  
## Panama
##             crisname Crisis_Result
## 1        PANAMA FLAG    Compromise
## 2 INVASION OF PANAMA       Victory
##  
## Korea
##                               crisname Crisis_Result
## 1                         KOREAN WAR I       Victory
## 2                               PUEBLO        Defeat
## 3                     EC-121 SPY PLANE      Stalmate
## 4                          POPLAR TREE    Compromise
## 5                   N. KOREA NUCLEAR I    Compromise
## 6                  N. KOREA NUCLEAR II    Compromise
## 7                 N. KOREA NUCLEAR III    Compromise
## 8 N. KOREA NUCLEAR IV-SATELLITE LAUNCH      Stalmate
## 9                   N. KOREA NUCLEAR V      Stalmate
##  
## Russia
##                crisname Crisis_Result
## 1            AZERBAIJAN       Victory
## 2       TURKISH STRAITS       Victory
## 3       BERLIN BLOCKADE       Victory
## 4        SUEZ NATN.-WAR       Victory
## 5       BERLIN DEADLINE      Stalmate
## 6           BERLIN WALL    Compromise
## 7        CUBAN MISSILES       Victory
## 8           SIX DAY WAR       Victory
## 9  CIENFUEGOS SUB. BASE       Victory
## 10 AFGHANISTAN INVASION      Stalmate
## 11    NICARAGUA MIG-21S      Stalmate
##  
## Syria
##                 crisname Crisis_Result
## 1  SYRIA/TURKEY CONFRNT.       Victory
## 2 SYRIA CHEMICAL WEAPONS    Compromise
##  
## United Kingdom
##          crisname Crisis_Result
## 1 TRUMAN DOCTRINE       Victory
##

USA Analysis Section

FINAL Plots Exlporation:

Categorical Analysis Section

Univariate Plots Section

Univariate Analysis

What is the structure of your dataset?

What is/are the main feature(s) of interest in your dataset?

What other features in the dataset do you think will help support your investigation into your feature(s) of interest?

Did you create any new variables from existing variables in the dataset?

Of the features you investigated, were there any unusual distributions? Did you perform any operations on the data to tidy, adjust, or change the form of the data? If so, why did you do this?

Bivariate Plots Section

Bivariate Analysis

Talk about some of the relationships you observed in this part of the investigation. How did the feature(s) of interest vary with other features in the dataset?

Did you observe any interesting relationships between the other features (not the main feature(s) of interest)?

What was the strongest relationship you found?

Multivariate Plots Section

Multivariate Analysis

Talk about some of the relationships you observed in this part of the investigation. Were there features that strengthened each other in terms of looking at your feature(s) of interest?