Student Retention at Payap University

Dr. Robert P. Batzinger
11 May 2016

Goal for this session

To answer 3 basic questions

  • Why is Student Retention important?
  • What is RetainMe?
  • What is needed?


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Why is Student Retention important?


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  • Students are our bottom line.
  • Payap University has significant invesments aimed at procuring, developing, and maintaining a vibrant student body.
  • There are many distractions and risks that effect a student's academic progress.
  • We need to invest strategically in student programs that are efficent and effective.
  • We cannot effectively manage or improve what we do not measure.

Measuring risks to students

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Purpose of a student retention system

To use admission, classroom and registrar data

  • To qualify the nature and impact of the risks that students face
  • To measure the effectiveness of corrective actions
  • To identify new opportunities to improve the acquisition, retention and graduation rates of the student population.

Freshmen Academic Key Outcomes (2013)

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Freshmen GPA vs High School GPA

Correlation between freshmen GPA and secondary school GPA

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Freshmen GPA vs Sophomore GPAs

Correlation between freshmen GPA and sophomore GPA in the same department PYU RetainMe

Loans to Freshmen

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  • Loans were distributed randomly through the student population.
  • Loan recipients left the university before the second semester at similar rates to non-loan recepients.
  • Similar statistics were seen for a subset of scholarship recipients within the same year.

Undergraduation education as a stochastic process


Three key rates

  • New student acquisition
  • Course repetition
  • Withdrawl from the university


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Student Transition Rates

A study was from 4 years ago to model student behavoir from Markov chain built from historical data to model

          Yr1 Yr2  Yr3  Yr4 Grad Drop
freshmen  0.1 0.8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10
sophomore 0.0 0.1 0.82 0.00 0.00 0.08
junior    0.0 0.0 0.08 0.87 0.00 0.05
senior    0.0 0.0 0.00 0.05 0.95 0.00
grad      0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00
drop      0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00

Student Cohort over 8 years

An 8-year projection of a cohort of students in a given cohort according stoichastic modelling 

  Fresh Sopho Junior Senior Grad Drop
0  1000     0      0      0    0    0
1   100   800      0      0    0  100
2    10   160    656      0    0  174
3     1    24    184    571    0  221
4     0     3     34    188  542  232
5     0     0      5     39  721  234
6     0     0      1      7  758  234
7     0     0      0      1  765  234
8     0     0      0      0  766  234

Graphical Representation

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Changing resignation rates

Condition

  • Resignation: 1% to 25%
  • Course repetition: 10%

Outcome:

  • Diminishing class sizes
  • Loss of revenue

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Effects of course repetition

Condition:

  • Course repetition: 1-25%
  • Resignation: 10%

Outcome:

  • Increasing class sides
  • Decreasing graduation rates

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What is RetainMe?

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Overview

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Basic Workflow

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RetainMe: Teacher's view

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RetainMe: Teacher's view

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RetainMe: Teacher's view

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RetainMe: Advisor's View

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RetainMe: Advisor's View

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RetainMe: Administrator's View

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RetainMe: Administrator's View

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RetainMe: Student data

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What is needed?

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Empowering student advisors

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The next step?

  • Record your interest and support for this project.
  • Establish the scope of a pilot project for the First Term
  • Encourage classroom instructors to use the system to provide early warning of student learning behaviou.
  • Encourage student advisors to use the system to better track student progress
  • Use data analytics to identify and track key indicators of behavoirs that directly effect academic excellence

Bibliography

  • Hakimzadeh, H., Williams, L., Batzinger, R., “Home Grown Early-Warning System”, Seventh Annual National Symposium on Student Retention, Charleston, SC, Oct. 30 – Nov. 2, 2011
  • Hakimzadeh, H., Williams, L., Batzinger, R., “IU-RETAIN: Technology for Identifying and Retaining At-Risk Students”, National conference on Student Recruitment, Marketing and Retention, Denver Colorado, July 26-28, 2011
  • Hakimzadeh, H., Azarbod, C., Batzinger, R., “Re-tain-o-logy: A Comprehensive Model for the Development of Early-Warning and Student Retention Systems”, 20th International Conference on Software Engineering and Data Engineering (SEDE 2011), Las Vegas, Nevada, June 20-22, 2011.
  • Hakimzadeh, H., Williams, L., Batzinger, R., "IU-RETAIN - Can Early Warning Help the University Retain At-Risk Students”, presentation at the IUSB University Center for Excellence in Teaching (UCET), March 25, 2008