Pooling the Poles
pooled polling trends and seat estimates for Polish parties
May 11, 2016
Ben Stanley, SWPS.
(bstanley@swps.edu.pl; @BDStanley)
Notes: The figure for Law and Justice (PiS) includes support for two minor parties, United Poland (SP) and Poland Together (PR), as these three parties have an agreement to run common lists and candidates.
Latest national estimates
Estimate of mandates gained
Seats per constituency
| PiS | PO | Kukiz | N | SLD | PSL | KORWiN | Razem | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legnica | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wałbrzych | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wrocław | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bydgoszcz | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Toruń | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lublin | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chełm | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zielona Góra | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Łódź | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Piotrków Trybunalski | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sieradz | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chrzanów | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kraków | 6 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nowy Sącz | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tarnów | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Płock | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Radom | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Siedlce | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Warszawa I | 7 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Warszawa II | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Opole | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Krosno | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rzeszów | 11 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Białystok | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gdańsk | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gdynia | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bielsko-Biała | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Częstochowa | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gliwice | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rybnik | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Katowice | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sosnowiec | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kielce | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elbląg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Olsztyn | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kalisz | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Konin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Piła | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Poznań | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Koszalin | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Szczecin | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
National polling trends
House effects
