COE MAY 2016 for Category A Round 2
LIM KAH KHENG (jkklim@hotmail.com)
Last Updated - 2016-05-16
Introduction
The previous May model round 1 predicted model of 47533 managed to have an close approximate of May Round 1 actual premium 47889, with differences of $356. The model will now add in new data and attempt to forecast the May 2016 COE Premium Category A Round 2.
Data source is from here
Determine COE Premium for NEW vehicle bid
## Warning in TentativeRoughFix(boruta.train): There are no Tentative attributes! Returning original
## object.
## [1] "PQP" "QUOTA" "BIDS"We will create some linear regression model equations to forecast PREMIUM based on these variables.
##
## Call:
## lm(formula = PREMIUM ~ PQP + QUOTA, data = traindata)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -18915.8 -3362.0 -558.4 3804.6 17057.8
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 1.170e+04 2.049e+03 5.708 5.92e-08 ***
## PQP 8.561e-01 2.948e-02 29.038 < 2e-16 ***
## QUOTA -3.815e+00 1.022e+00 -3.732 0.000269 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 5882 on 150 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.8657, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8639
## F-statistic: 483.3 on 2 and 150 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16##
## Call:
## lm(formula = PREMIUM ~ PQP, data = traindata)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -17987.9 -3436.2 -677.1 3999.4 17867.1
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) 7299.6671 1746.9188 4.179 4.95e-05 ***
## PQP 0.8828 0.0298 29.622 < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 6129 on 151 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared: 0.8532, Adjusted R-squared: 0.8522
## F-statistic: 877.5 on 1 and 151 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16The PQP is a 3 month moving average and it is a known number published here which is 45578 for May 2016 Category A. I will plug this value into the 2 equations.