library(dplyr)
library(lubridate)
library(FinCal)
library(sp500SlidingWindow)
max_annual_investment <- 3350
annual_fee <- 0.0125
window_width <- 30
life_expectancy <- 70
# how much of the lifetime medical expenses will insurance cover?
insurance_share <- 0.70
img_path <- "~/Dropbox/GrandPere/HSA calculations/doc/images/"
#img_path <- "~/Dropbox/GrandPere/HSA calculations/doc/tmp/"# total lifetime medical expenses
total_lifetime_medical_expenses <- 316579
total_lifetime_medical_expenses <- 317000 # round up
# average medical expense per year of life
average_annual_medical_costs <- round(total_lifetime_medical_expenses / life_expectancy, 0)
# distribution of expenses from age 30 to age 60
medical_costs_age30 <- round(average_annual_medical_costs * 0.70, 0)
medical_costs_age60 <- round(average_annual_medical_costs * 2.00, 0)
medical_expense_distribution <- round(seq(from = medical_costs_age30,
to = medical_costs_age60,
length.out = 30), 0)
# distribution of annual medical expenses during investing years
post_insurance_medical_expense <- round(medical_expense_distribution *
(1 - insurance_share),
0)
fmt(post_insurance_medical_expense)
#> [1] " 951" "1,012" "1,073" "1,134" "1,195" "1,256" "1,316" "1,377"
#> [9] "1,438" "1,499" "1,560" "1,621" "1,682" "1,743" "1,804" "1,865"
#> [17] "1,926" "1,987" "2,048" "2,108" "2,169" "2,230" "2,291" "2,352"
#> [25] "2,413" "2,474" "2,535" "2,596" "2,657" "2,717"# a flat line with one inflection point
investment_amount_distribution <- c(seq(from = max_annual_investment*0.30,
to = max_annual_investment*1.00,
length.out = 15),
rep(length.out = 15, x = max_annual_investment))# this produces a smoothly-increasing, concave-downward curve
# see http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/316481/
# formula-for-an-upwards-sloping-convex-curve-with-known-endpoints
# ===========================================================================
x0 <- 30
x1 <- x0 + window_width - 1 # age at the end of the window
y0 <- max_annual_investment * 0.35 # initial investment amount
y1 <- max_annual_investment * 1.00 # final investment amount
hs <- seq(from=0.5*(y0+y1), to=y1, length.out=5) # a free parameter ranging as shown
h <- hs[5] # smallest is least curvature, largest the most curvature
xvec <- seq(from=x0, to=x1)
investment_amount_distribution <- sapply(xvec, function(x) {
num <- y0*(x1 - x)**2 + 2*(x1 - x)*(x - x0)*h + y1*(x - x0)**2
dem <- (x1 - x0)**2
return(num / dem)
})
fmt(investment_amount_distribution)
#> [1] "1,172" "1,320" "1,462" "1,600" "1,732" "1,859" "1,980" "2,097"
#> [9] "2,208" "2,314" "2,415" "2,511" "2,602" "2,687" "2,767" "2,843"
#> [17] "2,912" "2,977" "3,037" "3,091" "3,140" "3,184" "3,223" "3,257"
#> [25] "3,285" "3,309" "3,327" "3,340" "3,347" "3,350"fmt(investment_amount_distribution - post_insurance_medical_expense)
#> [1] "222" "308" "389" "466" "537" "603" "664" "720" "770" "815" "855"
#> [12] "890" "920" "944" "963" "978" "986" "990" "989" "983" "971" "954"
#> [23] "932" "905" "872" "835" "792" "744" "690" "633"This function is part of the ‘sp500SlidingWindow’ package written by the author.
It’s under development and has not yet been exported to GitHub or CRAN.
All the graphs and statistics in the report were generated by this package
which is a general-purpose package for such sliding-window investment analyses
window_df <- sp500SlidingWindow(investment_amount_distribution,
post_insurance_medical_expense,
window_width = window_width,
annual_fee = annual_fee,
output_path = img_path)‘sp500SlidingWindow’ uses some functions in another of my personal R packages which can be found on GitHub
To install a complete working set of functions,
1. Download the source for 'sp500SlidingWindow' from
https://www.dropbox.com/s/l7twrg7lipt87az/sp500SlidingWindow_0.1.0.tar.gz?dl=0
2. Make sure you have the latest version of R installed
3. Issue these four commands in R, in order
* install.packages("devtools")
* install.packages(c("dplyr", "FinCal", "gdata", "jrvFinance", "lubridate", "pbivnorm", "magrittr", "RCurl", "rvest", "tidyr", "XML", "xml2", "xts", "YieldCurve"))
* devtools::install_github("grfiv/ustreasuries")
* install.packages("sp500SlidingWindow_0.1.0.tar.gz", repos=NULL, type="source")
Please contact the author about any issues george at georgefisher dot com
devtools::session_info()
#> Session info --------------------------------------------------------------
#> setting value
#> version R version 3.3.0 (2016-05-03)
#> system x86_64, linux-gnu
#> ui X11
#> language en_US
#> collate en_US.UTF-8
#> tz posixrules
#> date 2016-05-05
#> Packages ------------------------------------------------------------------
#> package * version date source
#> assertthat 0.1 2013-12-06 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> bitops 1.0-6 2013-08-17 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> colorspace 1.2-6 2015-03-11 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> DBI 0.4 2016-05-02 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> devtools 1.11.1 2016-04-21 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> digest 0.6.9 2016-01-08 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> dplyr * 0.4.3 2015-09-01 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> evaluate 0.9 2016-04-29 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> FinCal * 0.6.2 2015-12-30 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> formatR 1.3 2016-03-05 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> ggplot2 2.1.0 2016-03-01 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> gtable 0.2.0 2016-02-26 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> htmltools 0.3.5 2016-03-21 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> knitr 1.12.3 2016-01-22 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> lattice 0.20-33 2015-07-14 CRAN (R 3.2.1)
#> lazyeval 0.1.10 2015-01-02 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> lubridate * 1.5.6 2016-04-06 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> magrittr * 1.5 2014-11-22 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> memoise 1.0.0 2016-01-29 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> munsell 0.4.3 2016-02-13 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> plyr 1.8.3 2015-06-12 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> R6 2.1.2 2016-01-26 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> Rcpp 0.12.4 2016-03-26 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> RCurl 1.95-4.8 2016-03-01 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> reshape2 1.4.1 2014-12-06 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> rmarkdown 0.9.6 2016-05-01 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> scales 0.4.0 2016-02-26 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> sp500SlidingWindow * 0.1.0 2016-05-05 local
#> stringi 1.0-1 2015-10-22 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> stringr 1.0.0 2015-04-30 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> ustreasuries 1.0.0 2016-05-04 local
#> withr 1.0.1 2016-02-04 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> xts 0.9-7 2014-01-02 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> yaml 2.1.13 2014-06-12 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> YieldCurve 4.1 2013-01-30 CRAN (R 3.3.0)
#> zoo 1.7-13 2016-05-03 CRAN (R 3.3.0)