Crime in US

Descriptive Analytics

Nicolas Calderon
Advanced Analytics

Agenda






  1. Access the Problem Specification
  2. Creating a Latent Variable
  3. Analysis
  4. Fitting a Model: PCR-FAR vs PLSR

Access the Problem Specification

The New Latent Variable Criminality Level

Creating a new Criminality Level


Creating a new Criminality Level


\[ \small \begin{equation*} \begin{aligned} Lantent_{i} & =-0.362 * Murders_{i} - 0.336 * Rapes_{i} - 0.407 * Robberies_{i}\\ & - 0.365 * Assults_{i} - 0.392 * Burgleries_{i} - 0.31 * larcenies_{i}\\ & - 0.351 * Authothefts_{i} - 0.286 * Arson_{i} \end{aligned} \end{equation*} \]
Crime Level in Scale 0-1 \[ \small CrimeLevel_{i} = \frac{Lantent_{i}-min(Lantent_{i})}{max(Lantent_{i})-min(Lantent_{i})} \]

Crime Categories # Communities Percentile
Low 554 0-25
Medium 1107 25-75
High 554 >75

Spatial View of Criminality


Bi-Variate Analysis

Economical Achievement

Economical Achievement

Economical Achievement

Population Composition

Social Behavior

Fitting a Model:PCR-FAR Vs PLSR

Models Estructure

Results

Variance Retained of independent Variables

Adequacy with the dependent variable

Bootstrap MSE

Conclusions