Rationale

Everybody be bitchin’ last offseason

Analysis

Here is a scatter plot of player APRs compared to salaries. I’ve overlayed a smooth trendline and a linear trendline.

You can listen to Wolf’s biased argument all you want (or more like all you don’t want) about what his “3 year average” salary was, but the evidence is here showing what players of specific APRs actually have made historically in franchise. An exponential model appears to better fit the data, but a linear model is closer to what we’ve done in the past so I think fair to implement.

The regression equation for the linear model is y = 0.625x + -11.08 with a correlation coefficient of r = 0.7062958.

When you plug in the midpoint values for our original ranges of APRs that correspond to specific cap hits, the regression equation gives these salaries:

##   APR Ranges Midpoints Dollars
## 1 Below 19.9      17.5 -0.1425
## 2    20-24.9      22.5  2.9825
## 3    25-29.9      27.5  6.1075
## 4    30-34.9      32.5  9.2325
## 5    35-39.9      37.5 12.3575
## 6    40-44.9      42.5 15.4825
## 7    45-49.9      47.5 18.6075
## 8    50-54.9      52.5 21.7325
## 9    55-59.9      57.5 24.8575

So maybe Kuz really is a $0 captain???

Recommendation

I propose that we implement the table of salaries below. It basically rounds all of the expected salaries to the nearest dollar and rounds down for the three highest tiers. Any captain with an APR of 60+ should either be $27 or not allowed. (I think Wolf will fall under that limit this season.)

##   APR Ranges Dollars
## 1 Below 19.9       1
## 2    20-24.9       3
## 3    25-29.9       6
## 4    30-34.9       9
## 5    35-39.9      12
## 6    40-44.9      15
## 7    45-49.9      18
## 8    50-54.9      21
## 9    55-59.9      24

Other Considerations

  1. Tibbs, is there any rhyme or reason to when or why the salary cap increases? I’m cool with it, but I’d love to have an idea of when they are going to increase and by how much.
  2. Should we implement a hard cap? (e.g. the cap is $70, but no matter what kinds of trades you make to pick up cash, your players total salaries can’t exceed 125% of the cap) A lot of captains in the league were way more upset than I was about what Walsh was able to pull off.
  3. Should we continue allowing captains to defer $ acquired in trades to future seasons? Even I don’t like how I was able to use that loop hole this year and I know other captains don’t either. But I do appreciate how this is “franchise” league so I get that it almost kind of makes sense.