Singapore Certificate of Entitlement Prediction

Pham Thanh Hai
31/01/2016

  • Singapore is the country where cost of car ownership is highest in the world.
  • A new Toyota Camry cost about US$22K in the US, and a whopping US$120K in Singapore.
  • Car price breakdown: Import price + Tax + COE price (Certificate of Entitlement for 10 years).
  • COE is the main component in the final car price.
  • COE is bidded fortnightly, COE price in last 10 years has fluctuated anywhere between $100 to $100K depending on macro-economic factor and supply-demand.
  • Predicting COE price helps users decision in when to buy cars.

Historical COE Price (Quota Premium) vs COE Quota

plot of chunk unnamed-chunk-1

[1] "Plotting COE price (blue line) vs quota in every bidding from 2004. Note that the quota are not drawn to scale, just to illustrate the relationship between quota and price."

Features and Model

  • Our model is based on 3 features:
    • Purchasing Power: National median wage
    • Supply and Demand (available COE Quota for each bidding)
    • Sentiment: Singapore Main Stock Index (STI)

  • Use Random Forest to train on historical data in 11 years

  • Our prediction of the next COE price (February 2016):

    • Quota per each bidding has been announced to be 2028
    • Predicted COE value: $33613

Data Sources