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Studi Kasus Faktor Penentu Investasi Perusahaan Manufaktur (Dataset Grunfeld)

ALICE DELICA PERMATA R.

library(plm)
library(lmtest)
library(car)
library(stargazer)
data("Grunfeld", package = "plm")
pdata <- pdata.frame(Grunfeld, index = c("firm", "year"))
pdim(pdata)
Balanced Panel: n = 10, T = 20, N = 200
summary(pdata)
      firm         year          inv              value            capital       
 1      :20   1935   : 10   Min.   :   0.93   Min.   :  58.12   Min.   :   0.80  
 2      :20   1936   : 10   1st Qu.:  33.56   1st Qu.: 199.97   1st Qu.:  79.17  
 3      :20   1937   : 10   Median :  57.48   Median : 517.95   Median : 205.60  
 4      :20   1938   : 10   Mean   : 145.96   Mean   :1081.68   Mean   : 276.02  
 5      :20   1939   : 10   3rd Qu.: 138.04   3rd Qu.:1679.85   3rd Qu.: 358.10  
 6      :20   1940   : 10   Max.   :1486.70   Max.   :6241.70   Max.   :2226.30  
 (Other):80   (Other):140                                                        

Estimasi tiga model data panel

form <- inv ~ value + capital
cem <- plm(form, data = pdata, model = "pooling")
fem <- plm(form, data = pdata, model = "within")
rem <- plm(form, data = pdata, model = "random")
summary(cem)
Pooling Model

Call:
plm(formula = form, data = pdata, model = "pooling")

Balanced Panel: n = 10, T = 20, N = 200

Residuals:
     Min.   1st Qu.    Median   3rd Qu.      Max. 
-291.6757  -30.0137    5.3033   34.8293  369.4464 

Coefficients:
               Estimate  Std. Error t-value  Pr(>|t|)    
(Intercept) -42.7143694   9.5116760 -4.4907 1.207e-05 ***
value         0.1155622   0.0058357 19.8026 < 2.2e-16 ***
capital       0.2306785   0.0254758  9.0548 < 2.2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Total Sum of Squares:    9359900
Residual Sum of Squares: 1755900
R-Squared:      0.81241
Adj. R-Squared: 0.8105
F-statistic: 426.576 on 2 and 197 DF, p-value: < 2.22e-16
summary(fem)
Oneway (individual) effect Within Model

Call:
plm(formula = form, data = pdata, model = "within")

Balanced Panel: n = 10, T = 20, N = 200

Residuals:
      Min.    1st Qu.     Median    3rd Qu.       Max. 
-184.00857  -17.64316    0.56337   19.19222  250.70974 

Coefficients:
        Estimate Std. Error t-value  Pr(>|t|)    
value   0.110124   0.011857  9.2879 < 2.2e-16 ***
capital 0.310065   0.017355 17.8666 < 2.2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Total Sum of Squares:    2244400
Residual Sum of Squares: 523480
R-Squared:      0.76676
Adj. R-Squared: 0.75311
F-statistic: 309.014 on 2 and 188 DF, p-value: < 2.22e-16
summary(rem)
Oneway (individual) effect Random Effect Model 
   (Swamy-Arora's transformation)

Call:
plm(formula = form, data = pdata, model = "random")

Balanced Panel: n = 10, T = 20, N = 200

Effects:
                  var std.dev share
idiosyncratic 2784.46   52.77 0.282
individual    7089.80   84.20 0.718
theta: 0.8612

Residuals:
     Min.   1st Qu.    Median   3rd Qu.      Max. 
-177.6063  -19.7350    4.6851   19.5105  252.8743 

Coefficients:
              Estimate Std. Error z-value Pr(>|z|)    
(Intercept) -57.834415  28.898935 -2.0013  0.04536 *  
value         0.109781   0.010493 10.4627  < 2e-16 ***
capital       0.308113   0.017180 17.9339  < 2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1

Total Sum of Squares:    2381400
Residual Sum of Squares: 548900
R-Squared:      0.7695
Adj. R-Squared: 0.76716
Chisq: 657.674 on 2 DF, p-value: < 2.22e-16
fixef(fem)
        1         2         3         4         5         6         7         8         9        10 
 -70.2967  101.9058 -235.5718  -27.8093 -114.6168  -23.1613  -66.5535  -57.5457  -87.2223   -6.5678 

Perbandingan hasil estimasi=

stargazer(cem, fem, rem, type = "text", column.labels = c("CEM", "FEM", "REM"))
Warning: length of NULL cannot be changedWarning: length of NULL cannot be changedWarning: length of NULL cannot be changedWarning: length of NULL cannot be changedWarning: length of NULL cannot be changedWarning: number of rows of result is not a multiple of vector length (arg 2)

=========================================================================
                                 Dependent variable:                     
             ------------------------------------------------------------
                                         inv                             
                       CEM                      FEM               REM    
                       (1)                      (2)               (3)    
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
value                0.116***                 0.110***          0.110*** 
                     (0.006)                  (0.012)           (0.010)  
                                                                         
capital              0.231***                 0.310***          0.308*** 
                     (0.025)                  (0.017)           (0.017)  
                                                                         
Constant            -42.714***                                 -57.834** 
                     (9.512)                                    (28.899) 
                                                                         
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations           200                      200               200    
R2                    0.812                    0.767             0.770   
Adjusted R2           0.811                    0.753             0.767   
F Statistic  426.576*** (df = 2; 197) 309.014*** (df = 2; 188) 657.674***
=========================================================================
Note:                                         *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01

Uji pemilihan model

Uji Chow (CEM vs FEM)

pFtest(fem, cem)

    F test for individual effects

data:  form
F = 49.177, df1 = 9, df2 = 188, p-value < 2.2e-16
alternative hypothesis: significant effects

Uji Breusch-Pagan LM (CEM vs REM)

plmtest(cem, type = "bp")

    Lagrange Multiplier Test - (Breusch-Pagan)

data:  form
chisq = 798.16, df = 1, p-value < 2.2e-16
alternative hypothesis: significant effects

Uji Hausman (FEM vs REM)

phtest(fem, rem)

    Hausman Test

data:  form
chisq = 2.3304, df = 2, p-value = 0.3119
alternative hypothesis: one model is inconsistent

Uji efek dua arah (Two-way effects)

fem_tw <- plm(form, data = pdata, model = "within", effect = "twoways")
pFtest(fem_tw, fem)

    F test for twoways effects

data:  form
F = 1.4032, df1 = 19, df2 = 169, p-value = 0.1309
alternative hypothesis: significant effects

Uji asumsi klasik

Heteroskedastisitas

bptest(inv ~ value + capital + factor(firm), data = Grunfeld)

    studentized Breusch-Pagan test

data:  inv ~ value + capital + factor(firm)
BP = 85.836, df = 11, p-value = 1.086e-13

Autokorelasi Breusch-Godfrey

pbgtest(fem)

    Breusch-Godfrey/Wooldridge test for serial correlation in panel models

data:  form
chisq = 65.063, df = 20, p-value = 1.14e-06
alternative hypothesis: serial correlation in idiosyncratic errors

Autokorelasi Wooldridge

pwartest(fem)

    Wooldridge's test for serial correlation in FE panels

data:  fem
F = 76.929, df1 = 1, df2 = 188, p-value = 1.057e-15
alternative hypothesis: serial correlation

Cross-sectional dependence

pcdtest(fem, test = "cd")

    Pesaran CD test for cross-sectional dependence in panels

data:  inv ~ value + capital
z = 4.6612, p-value = 3.144e-06
alternative hypothesis: cross-sectional dependence

Multikolinearitas (VIF)

vif(lm(inv ~ value + capital, data = Grunfeld))
   value  capital 
1.313773 1.313773 

Korelasi antarvariabel

cor(Grunfeld[, c("value", "capital")])
            value   capital
value   1.0000000 0.4887058
capital 0.4887058 1.0000000

Uji akar unit

purtest(pdata$inv, test = "levinlin", exo = "intercept", lags = "AIC", pmax = 4)
Warning: the time series is short

    Levin-Lin-Chu Unit-Root Test (ex. var.: Individual Intercepts)

data:  pdata$inv
z = 3.1416, p-value = 0.9992
alternative hypothesis: stationarity

Penanganan pelanggaran asumsi (Standard Error Robust)

Cluster SE

coeftest(fem, vcov = vcovHC(fem, type = "HC1", cluster = "group"))

t test of coefficients:

        Estimate Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
value   0.110124   0.014414  7.6398 1.076e-12 ***
capital 0.310065   0.050043  6.1959 3.576e-09 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
coeftest(fem, vcov = vcovSCC(fem, type = "HC1"))

t test of coefficients:

        Estimate Std. Error t value  Pr(>|t|)    
value   0.110124   0.017775  6.1954 3.586e-09 ***
capital 0.310065   0.034996  8.8601 6.017e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
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