See the code: https://github.com/BrianS3/gas_forecasting/blob/main/R/gas_EDA.Rmd

All prices are the U.S. national weekly average, all grades, dollars per gallon from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Prices are not adjusted for inflation.

Where prices stand

Latest week (Nov 02, 2026) $4.29 per gallon
vs. 4 weeks ago down $0.21 (-5%)
vs. 1 year ago up $1.14 (36%)
2026 range so far $2.91 (Jan 12) to $4.63 (May 11)
Record high $5.11 (Jun 13, 2022)
Projected average, Nov–Dec 2026 $4.41 (likely range $4.05–$4.75). See Gas Forecasting Results

What’s going on

Written November 2026. Update this section by hand when the story changes.

  • War with Iran pushed prices up fast. The U.S. and Israel struck Iran on February 28, 2026, and Iran cut off access to the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil. The national average went from $2.94 in January to $4.61 in May, the sharpest monthly run-up in the data, steeper than after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 or Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
  • A second crude spike in September. Prices eased over the summer and then climbed again. EIA attributes the September increase to higher crude oil prices plus wider refining margins (“crack spreads”).
  • What EIA expects next. EIA’s October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook expects retail gasoline to hold near September levels in October and then slowly decrease along with crude oil prices.

Sources: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, Oct 2026, PBS NewsHour, Kelley Blue Book / AAA.

The long view: price and who was in charge

The top chart is the weekly national average since 1993. Shading shows the president’s party (blue = Democrat, red = Republican) and gold dots mark major events. The bottom strip shows which party held the White House, Senate, and House. Hover for details, and drag to zoom (double-click to reset).

By president

President Party From To Average Price at start Price at end Change Low High
Bill Clinton D Apr 1993 Jan 2001 $1.20 $1.07 $1.51 +$0.44 $0.95 $1.71
George W. Bush R Jan 2001 Jan 2009 $2.18 $1.51 $1.90 +$0.39 $1.10 $4.16
Barack Obama D Jan 2009 Jan 2017 $3.04 $1.89 $2.47 +$0.58 $1.83 $4.02
Donald Trump R Jan 2017 Jan 2021 $2.57 $2.44 $2.46 +$0.03 $1.87 $3.04
Joe Biden D Jan 2021 Jan 2025 $3.57 $2.48 $3.16 +$0.69 $2.48 $5.11
Donald Trump R Jan 2025 now $3.59 $3.23 $4.29 +$1.06 $2.91 $4.63

Clinton’s row starts in April 1993, when EIA’s weekly series begins.

By who controlled Washington

Each row is a stretch where the White House, Senate, and House majorities stayed the same.

From To President Senate House Control Average Price at start Price at end Change
Apr 1993 Jan 1995 Bill Clinton (D) D D Unified D $1.08 $1.07 $1.13 +$0.06
Jan 1995 Jan 2001 Bill Clinton (D) R R Divided $1.24 $1.13 $1.45 +$0.31
Jan 2001 Jan 2001 Bill Clinton (D) D R Divided $1.49 $1.47 $1.51 +$0.05
Jan 2001 Jun 2001 George W. Bush (R) R R Unified R $1.57 $1.51 $1.72 +$0.20
Jun 2001 Dec 2002 George W. Bush (R) D R Divided $1.39 $1.69 $1.48 -$0.20
Jan 2003 Jan 2007 George W. Bush (R) R R Unified R $2.11 $1.49 $2.38 +$0.90
Jan 2007 Jan 2009 George W. Bush (R) D D Divided $3.04 $2.35 $1.90 -$0.46
Jan 2009 Dec 2010 Barack Obama (D) D D Unified D $2.64 $1.89 $3.11 +$1.22
Jan 2011 Dec 2014 Barack Obama (D) D R Divided $3.57 $3.12 $2.39 -$0.73
Jan 2015 Jan 2017 Barack Obama (D) R R Divided $2.39 $2.31 $2.47 +$0.16
Jan 2017 Dec 2018 Donald Trump (R) R R Unified R $2.68 $2.44 $2.36 -$0.08
Jan 2019 Jan 2021 Donald Trump (R) R D Divided $2.47 $2.33 $2.46 +$0.13
Jan 2021 Jan 2023 Joe Biden (D) D D Unified D $3.61 $2.48 $3.33 +$0.85
Jan 2023 Dec 2024 Joe Biden (D) D R Divided $3.53 $3.37 $3.13 -$0.24
Jan 2025 Jan 2025 Joe Biden (D) R R Divided $3.17 $3.17 $3.16 -$0.00
Jan 2025 now Donald Trump (R) R R Unified R $3.59 $3.23 $4.29 +$1.06

Read these tables with care. Gas prices mostly follow the global price of crude oil, which is driven by wars, OPEC decisions, recessions, and hurricanes far more than by who holds office. Every big move on the chart above lines up with one of those events. Prices have also risen over 30+ years with inflation, so later administrations will tend to show higher averages regardless of policy.

Patterns worth knowing

Typical seasonal pattern

Over the last 15 years, gas has typically been cheapest in Dec (-7.0% vs. the year’s average) and most expensive in May (5.3%). Prices usually climb in spring as refiners switch to summer-blend gasoline and driving season starts, then ease into winter.

Year by year