Syracuse’s Defense Didn’t Allow a Touchdown. Syracuse Lost.

Week 10 2026 — Clemson 18, Syracuse 13 — exhibits for publication

library(tidyverse); library(arrow); library(gt); library(scales); library(cfbfastR)

options(cfb.lib_only = TRUE)
source("../R/02_team_game_metrics.R")
source("../R/05_viz_style.R")

TEAM <- "Syracuse"; OPP <- "Clemson"
SEASON <- params$season; WEEK <- params$week
FIG_DIR <- sprintf("figures/%d_wk%02d_story", SEASON, WEEK)
SCOPE   <- sprintf("%d Week %d | %s %d, %s %d", SEASON, WEEK, OPP, 18, TEAM, 13)

cur <- read_parquet(sprintf("~/cfb-data/processed/team_game_metrics_%d.parquet", SEASON))
fbs <- readRDS(sprintf("~/cfb-data/fbs_teams_%d.rds", SEASON))
p   <- read_parquet(sprintf("~/cfb-data/raw/pbp_inseason/pbp_%d_wk%02d.parquet",
                            SEASON, WEEK))

su  <- cur |> filter(team == TEAM, week == WEEK)
gid <- su$game_id[1]
g   <- p |> filter(game_id == gid, !is.na(pos_team))

# Drive-level trips into scoring range, computed directly so the exhibits match
# the narrative rather than relying on the pipeline's own opportunity counter.
drives <- g |>
  group_by(drive_id) |>
  summarise(team    = first(pos_team),
            closest = suppressWarnings(min(yards_to_goal, na.rm = TRUE)),
            result  = first(drive_result),
            pts     = first(drive_pts),
            plays   = n(),
            .groups = "drop") |>
  filter(is.finite(closest))

trips <- drives |> filter(closest <= 40)

trip_summary <- trips |>
  group_by(team) |>
  summarise(Trips = n(), Points = sum(pts, na.rm = TRUE),
            `Points per trip` = Points / Trips, .groups = "drop")

Exhibit 1 — Both teams reached scoring range. Only one of them is happy about it.

trip_summary |>
  mutate(team = factor(team, levels = c(OPP, TEAM))) |>
  arrange(team) |>
  rename(Team = team) |>
  gt() |>
  tab_header(
    title = md(sprintf("**Neither offense could finish — but %s needed to**", TEAM)),
    subtitle = md(sprintf(
      "Trips inside the opponent's 40-yard line and the points they produced | %s won 18-13",
      OPP))
  ) |>
  fmt_number(columns = `Points per trip`, decimals = 2) |>
  cols_align("center", columns = -Team) |>
  tab_style(style = cell_text(weight = "bold"), locations = cells_body(columns = Team)) |>
  tab_style(style = list(cell_fill(color = "#FFF3E6"), cell_text(weight = "bold")),
            locations = cells_body(rows = Team == TEAM)) |>
  tab_source_note(md(paste0("**", su_caption(SCOPE),
    "** — a trip is any drive reaching the opponent's 40."))) |>
  gt_theme_su()

Neither offense could finish — but Syracuse needed to
Trips inside the opponent’s 40-yard line and the points they produced | Clemson won 18-13
Team	Trips	Points	Points per trip
Clemson	8	12	1.50
Syracuse	6	13	2.17
Data: CollegeFootballData via cfbfastR | 2026 Week 10 | Clemson 18, Syracuse 13 — a trip is any drive reaching the opponent’s 40.

Exhibit 2 — What Clemson did with its chances

trips |>
  filter(team == OPP) |>
  arrange(closest) |>
  transmute(`Got as close as` = sprintf("the %s %.0f", TEAM, closest),
            Plays = plays, Result = result, Points = pts) |>
  gt() |>
  tab_header(
    title = md(sprintf("**%s reached the %s 40 eight times and never scored a touchdown**",
                       OPP, TEAM)),
    subtitle = md(sprintf(
      "Four field goals, two punts, a missed field goal and a drive that ran out the half | %s succeeded on %.1f%% of its plays all afternoon",
      OPP, 100 * su$def_success_rate))
  ) |>
  cols_align("center", columns = c(Plays, Points)) |>
  cols_align("left", columns = c(`Got as close as`, Result)) |>
  tab_style(style = list(cell_fill(color = "#FFF3E6"), cell_text(weight = "bold")),
            locations = cells_body(rows = Points == 0)) |>
  tab_source_note(md(paste0("**", su_caption(SCOPE), "**"))) |>
  gt_theme_su()

Clemson reached the Syracuse 40 eight times and never scored a touchdown
Four field goals, two punts, a missed field goal and a drive that ran out the half | Clemson succeeded on 28.6% of its plays all afternoon
Got as close as	Plays	Result	Points
the Syracuse 8	10	FG	3
the Syracuse 14	6	FG	3
the Syracuse 18	6	FG	3
the Syracuse 18	6	PUNT	0
the Syracuse 20	14	END OF HALF	0
the Syracuse 27	10	PUNT	0
the Syracuse 36	12	FG	3
the Syracuse 39	10	MISSED FG	0
Data: CollegeFootballData via cfbfastR | 2026 Week 10 | Clemson 18, Syracuse 13

Exhibit 3 — What Syracuse did with the same chances

trips |>
  filter(team == TEAM) |>
  arrange(closest) |>
  transmute(`Got as close as` = sprintf("the %s %.0f", OPP, closest),
            Plays = plays, Result = result, Points = pts) |>
  gt() |>
  tab_header(
    title = md(sprintf("**%s got two fewer chances and scored one more point**", TEAM)),
    subtitle = md(sprintf("Two field goals, a touchdown, a missed field goal, a drive that ran out the half — and an interception thrown from the %s 3-yard line",
                          OPP))
  ) |>
  cols_align("center", columns = c(Plays, Points)) |>
  cols_align("left", columns = c(`Got as close as`, Result)) |>
  tab_style(style = list(cell_fill(color = "#FFF3E6"), cell_text(weight = "bold")),
            locations = cells_body(rows = Points == 0)) |>
  tab_source_note(md(paste0("**", su_caption(SCOPE), "**"))) |>
  gt_theme_su()

Syracuse got two fewer chances and scored one more point
Two field goals, a touchdown, a missed field goal, a drive that ran out the half — and an interception thrown from the Clemson 3-yard line
Got as close as	Plays	Result	Points
the Clemson 3	9	INT	0
the Clemson 8	15	FG	3
the Clemson 14	11	MISSED FG	0
the Clemson 28	8	FG	3
the Clemson 33	8	END OF HALF	0
the Clemson 33	5	TD	7
Data: CollegeFootballData via cfbfastR | 2026 Week 10 | Clemson 18, Syracuse 13

Exhibit 4 — The offense shrank as the field did

zones <- p |>
  select(all_of(intersect(NEEDED, names(p)))) |>
  filter(pos_team == TEAM) |>
  classify_plays() |>
  filter(is_scrimmage) |>
  mutate(zone = factor(ifelse(yards_to_goal <= 40,
                              sprintf("Inside the %s 40", OPP),
                              sprintf("Outside the %s 40", OPP)),
                       levels = c(sprintf("Outside the %s 40", OPP),
                                  sprintf("Inside the %s 40", OPP))),
         type = ifelse(pass == 1, "Pass", "Rush"))

zone_sr <- zones |>
  group_by(zone, type) |>
  summarise(plays = n(), sr = mean(success, na.rm = TRUE), .groups = "drop")

p_zone <- ggplot(zone_sr, aes(x = zone, y = sr, fill = type)) +
  geom_col(position = position_dodge(width = 0.72), width = 0.62) +
  geom_text(aes(label = sprintf("%.0f%%\n%d plays", 100 * sr, plays)),
            position = position_dodge(width = 0.72), vjust = -0.25,
            size = 3.3, fontface = "bold", lineheight = 0.95, color = SU$ink) +
  scale_fill_manual(values = c(Pass = SU$orange, Rush = SU$blue)) +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = percent, expand = expansion(mult = c(0, 0.22))) +
  labs(
    title = sprintf("%s's passing game fell apart once the field got short", TEAM),
    subtitle = "Success rate by field zone — the share of plays gaining enough to stay on schedule",
    x = NULL, y = "Success rate", fill = NULL,
    caption = su_caption(SCOPE)
  ) +
  theme_su(legend_pos = "top")

save_fig(p_zone, "01_success_rate_by_zone", height = 5)

zones |>
  group_by(zone) |>
  summarise(Plays = n(), Successes = sum(success, na.rm = TRUE),
            `Success rate` = mean(success, na.rm = TRUE), .groups = "drop") |>
  rename(Zone = zone) |>
  gt() |>
  tab_header(
    title = md("**All plays, by zone**"),
    subtitle = md("The passing-only figures appear in the chart above; these are every snap")
  ) |>
  fmt_percent(columns = `Success rate`, decimals = 1) |>
  cols_align("center", columns = -Zone) |>
  tab_style(style = cell_text(weight = "bold"), locations = cells_body(columns = Zone)) |>
  tab_source_note(md(paste0("**", su_caption(SCOPE), "**"))) |>
  gt_theme_su()

All plays, by zone
The passing-only figures appear in the chart above; these are every snap
Zone	Plays	Successes	Success rate
Outside the Clemson 40	51	22	43.1%
Inside the Clemson 40	22	7	31.8%
Data: CollegeFootballData via cfbfastR | 2026 Week 10 | Clemson 18, Syracuse 13

Exhibit 5 — Seven of nine decided by one score

sched <- suppressWarnings(cfbd_game_info(SEASON, team = TEAM)) |>
  filter(!is.na(home_points)) |> arrange(week) |>
  mutate(opp = ifelse(home_team == TEAM, away_team, home_team),
         su_pts = ifelse(home_team == TEAM, home_points, away_points),
         op_pts = ifelse(home_team == TEAM, away_points, home_points),
         margin = su_pts - op_pts,
         one_score = abs(margin) <= 8,
         lab = sprintf("Wk %d  %s", week, opp),
         outcome = ifelse(margin > 0, "Win", "Loss")) |>
  mutate(lab = factor(lab, levels = rev(lab)))

p_margin <- ggplot(sched, aes(x = margin, y = lab)) +
  annotate("rect", xmin = -8, xmax = 8, ymin = -Inf, ymax = Inf,
           fill = SU$orange, alpha = 0.08) +
  geom_vline(xintercept = 0, color = SU$muted, linewidth = 0.5) +
  geom_segment(aes(x = 0, xend = margin, yend = lab, color = outcome), linewidth = 1.6) +
  geom_point(aes(color = outcome), size = 3.4) +
  geom_text(aes(label = sprintf("%+d", margin),
                hjust = ifelse(margin > 0, -0.45, 1.45)),
            size = 3.3, fontface = "bold", color = SU$ink) +
  scale_color_manual(values = c(Win = SU$orange, Loss = SU$blue), name = NULL) +
  scale_x_continuous(expand = expansion(mult = c(0.14, 0.14))) +
  labs(
    title = sprintf("%d of Syracuse's %d games have been decided by one score",
                    sum(sched$one_score), nrow(sched)),
    subtitle = sprintf(
      "Final margin by game | Shaded band: within 8 points | Syracuse is %d-%d in those games and %d-%d overall",
      sum(sched$one_score & sched$margin > 0), sum(sched$one_score & sched$margin < 0),
      sum(sched$margin > 0), sum(sched$margin < 0)),
    x = "Final margin", y = NULL,
    caption = su_caption("2026 season to date")
  ) +
  theme_su(legend_pos = "top")

save_fig(p_margin, "02_one_score_games", height = 5.5)

Figures written to disk

figs <- list.files(FIG_DIR, pattern = "\\.png$", full.names = TRUE)
if (length(figs) == 0) cat("No figures written.\n") else {
  cat("300-dpi PNGs ready for the piece:\n\n")
  for (f in figs) cat("  ", f, "  (", round(file.info(f)$size/1024), " KB)\n", sep = "")
  cat("\nCopy the gt tables from the browser into Google Docs — they paste as\n")
  cat("native editable tables.\n")
}

## 300-dpi PNGs ready for the piece:
## 
##   figures/2026_wk10_story/01_success_rate_by_zone.png  (122 KB)
##   figures/2026_wk10_story/02_one_score_games.png  (149 KB)
## 
## Copy the gt tables from the browser into Google Docs — they paste as
## native editable tables.