Fantasy Football Newsletter
Lorenzo Rodriguez
2026-11-08
Week 9
We’re back, baby! Here’s all the valuable intel you need to help you make your own decisions about starting, sitting, or picking up players in Week 9. Enjoy!
Methods
All info here is sourced from the nflfastr package which collects play by play data about every single game. I used R to organize the data and create the visuals you see. This newsletter was created using Rmarkdown and LaTEX.
Fantasy Football Data
Efficiency
Rushing Leaders
Last Week
This graph shows the top 30 or so running backs in terms of total yards gained vs. how many plays they were trusted with the ball. This includes targets and rushing attempts. I colored the dots to help highlight the efficiency of certain running backs. The colored tiers help rank players by their efficiency, the better, more explosive players have a higher ranking (5+).
Last 4 Weeks
This graph shows the top 30 or so running backs in terms of total yards gained vs. how many plays they were trusted with the ball. This includes targets and rushing attempts. I colored the dots to help highlight the efficiency of certain running backs. The colored tiers help rank players by their efficiency, the better, more explosive players have a higher ranking (5+).
Entire Season
This graph shows the top 30 or so running backs in terms of total yards gained vs. how many plays they were trusted with the ball. This includes targets and rushing attempts. I colored the dots to help highlight the efficiency of certain running backs. The colored tiers help rank players by their efficiency, the better, more explosive players have a higher ranking (5+).
Receiving Leaders
Last Week
This graph shows the top 30 or so receivers in terms of yards gained this season as well as in how many plays they were targeted with a pass. I colored the dots to help highlight the efficiency of certain receivers. The colored tiers help rank players by their efficiency, the better, more explosive players have a higher ranking (5+).
Last 4 Weeks
This graph shows the top 30 or so receivers in terms of yards gained this season as well as in how many plays they were targeted with a pass. I colored the dots to help highlight the efficiency of certain receivers. The colored tiers help rank players by their efficiency, the better, more explosive players have a higher ranking (5+).
Entire Season
This graph shows the top 30 or so wide receivers in terms of yards gained this season as well as in how many plays they were targeted with a pass. I colored the dots to help highlight the efficiency of certain running backs. The colored tiers help rank players by their efficiency, the better, more explosive players have a higher ranking (5+).
Targets and Receptions
Last Week
ELI5: Start players who have the most opportunities to catch the ball and who succeed in doing so.
We play in a Half PPR league. That means that our players receive half a point every time they successfully catch the ball on a passing attempt (we call this a target). This makes players who are target hogs valuable for your team. Often times, quarterbacks will have a player on their team that acts as their security blanket when things get tough. Mahomes relies on Kelce, Tua relies on Tyreek Hill, Josh Allen (used to) rely on Stefon Diggs. Every team has a reliable dude who their quarterback can turn to when needed. You’ll see these players represented in the next couple of graphs.
Week 17’s leaders in targets and receptions can be seen below. The green bar represents the number of successful catches by a player and the blue bar extends to represent the total times they were targeted by their QB.
Last 4 Weeks
ELI5: Start players who have the most opportunities to catch the ball and who succeed in doing so.
As usual, its helpful to look at results in the past few weeks to see how players are currently trending. This helps especially since some players will pop off one week and then quiet down the next. Looking at a four week spread helps reduce the chances that you’ll fall for a player that has a “one and done” performance.
Leaders in targets and receptions through the last 4 weeks of 2026 are listed below. The green bar represents the number of successful catches by a player and the blue bar extends to represent the total times they were targeted by their QB.
Entire Season
ELI5: Start players who have the most opportunities to catch the ball and who succeed in doing so.
Season leaders in targets and receptions are listed below. The green bar represents the number of successful catches by a player and the blue bar extends to represent the total times they were targeted by their QB.
Target Share
Target Share - TE
ELI5: Play or pick up a tight end who plays a big role in their offense.
The tight end position is tricky to work with in fantasy football due to the fact that their role in an offense any given game can be unpredictable. A good tight end is a great blocker and decoy, and sometimes even the most talented players at that position will not earn many receiving yards due to the game script that the coaches drew up for that specific game.
To help balance the scales in our favor, we’ll look at target share. It compares the number of times as a percent that a tight end was targeted for a pass by a QB instead of his teammates. This helps reveal the most consistent options at the tight end position as well as some emerging stars. T. J. Hockenson (Vikings) is the clear leader over the past four weeks, in that time frame, in over 30% of the passes his quarterback attempted, the ball was sent in his direction. This chart lists the top tight ends in terms of target share over the last four weeks of the 2026 season.
Target Share - WR
ELI5: Play or pick up a wide receiver who plays a big role in their offense.
This chart lists the top wide receivers in terms of target share over the last four weeks of the 2026 season.
Target Share - RB
ELI5: Play or pick up a pass-catching running back who plays a big role in their offense.
This chart lists the top running backs in terms of target share over the last four weeks of the 2026 season.
Average Depth of Target
Last Week
ELI5: These boys catch deep balls and/or run far with their catches.
Here is another chart for receivers. This chart tracks a receiver’s average depth of target (ADoT), or how far down field they tend to be when the QB attempts to make a pass to them. Here we compare a receiver’s ADoT to the average of how many yards they’ve gained AFTER they’ve caught the ball. If a receiver is high on this chart then they tend to do more with what they are given, no matter where they are on the field - if a receiver is further down (to the right) on this chart, they tend to see deeper passes which allows for more opportunities to make juicy, big plays.
This graph displays data solely from Week 17’s games.
Last 4 Weeks
ELI5: These boys catch deep balls and/or run far with their catches.
Here is another chart for receivers. This chart tracks a receiver’s average depth of target (ADoT), or how far down field they tend to be when the QB attempts to make a pass to them. Here we compare a receiver’s ADoT to the average of how many yards they’ve gained AFTER they’ve caught the ball. If a receiver is high on this chart then they tend to do more with what they are given, no matter where they are on the field - if a receiver is further down (to the right) on this chart, they tend to see deeper passes which allows for more opportunities to make juicy, big plays.
As usual, we’ll track this over the last four weeks of the season to notice trends in player performance.
Entire Season
ELI5: These boys catch deep balls and/or run far with their catches.
Here is another chart for receivers. This chart tracks a receiver’s average depth of target (ADoT), or how far down field they tend to be when the QB attempts to make a pass to them. Here we compare a receiver’s ADoT to the average of how many yards they’ve gained AFTER they’ve caught the ball. If a receiver is high on this chart then they tend to do more with what they are given, no matter where they are on the field - if a receiver is further down (to the right) on this chart, they tend to see deeper passes which allows for more opportunities to make juicy, big plays.
This graph displays data for the entire season.
The Redzone
Redzone Targets
ELI5: Start players who are given many opportunities to catch a pass in or near the endzone for a touchdown.
Equally, if not more important, is looking at the number of times a player is given a chance to score a touchdown. Touchdowns are six points each, so you’d ideally like to have players who are given many opportunities to score and can finish the job for a decent portion of those opportunities.
A redzone target is anytime that a player gets targeted within 20 yards of the endzone. Sometimes a player that is not scoring much has hidden upside, due to the fact that they are often trusted with the ball within the redzone. Even if they don’t score on most of their redzone targets, if they do have a high volume of redzone targets, you can expect that they will score eventually, which makes them a valuable stash (especially against teams with poor redzone defense).
Leaders in redzone targets and touchdowns through the last 4 weeks of the season are listed below. The red bar represents the number of touchdowns by a receiver and the blue bar extends to represent the total number of times they were targeted by their QB in the redzone.
Redzone Carries
ELI5: Start players who are given many opportunities to run into the endzone to score touchdowns.
Redzone carries are a similar concept, but for running backs. For our purposes, it makes more sense to hone in our focus on plays run from within a 10 yard distance from the end zone. We call these “goal to go” situations, since a team is now actively trying to score instead of trying to achieve a first down.
A “goaline back” is a running back with a high number of carries outside of the endzone. Even if a running back doesn’t get much action from outside this range, they can be very valuable due to their use right outside the endzone.
Leaders in redzone carries and rushing touchdowns through the last 4 weeks are listed below. The red bar represents the number of touchdowns by a rusher and the blue bar extends to represent the total number of times they attempted to carry the ball into redzone.
Quarterbacks
Quarterbacks get all the NFL glory for good reason. Having the right person at the helm of a team’s offense can propel a team to new heights - having the wrong person can motivate an owner to fire entire his entire coaching staff (like the Raiders lol). Here are some charts to make sure that the right person is leading your team to the playoffs.
Last Week
ELI5: A strong man throws far, a fast man runs far. Get yourself a man who can do both.
In our league, and in most leagues, quarterbacks gain 1 point for passing the ball 25 yards down field. They also they gain 1 point for running the ball 10 yards down field themselves. I’m sure you can do the math, but this means that running the ball is worth 2.5 times as many points as passing the ball. This makes rushing quarterbacks a valuable asset to any fantasy football team.
Often times, however, you’ll find that some of the quarterbacks that run the most are doing so to save their own skin. Quarterbacks on teams with poor offensive lines have to scramble and scamper more often than teams with a solid set of big dudes protecting them and giving them time to throw the ball down the field. A panicking quarterback often means lower chances of converting downs and, ultimately, lower chances of scoring. This is bad in fantasy football.
The best quarterbacks for fantasy football purposes are what we call dual threat quarterbacks. They are leaders in passing yards AND rushing yards. The following chart captures both.
Be mindful of the backup quarterbacks that have only recently earned a start for their teams due to injury or the usual starter getting benched. Players like Will Levis, Tyson Bagent, P.J. Walker, Gardner Minshew have recently entered the spotlight due to unforeseen circumstances and thus are lower in all stats as a result.
Last 4 Weeks
ELI5: A strong man throws far, a fast man runs far. Get yourself a man who can do both.
In our league, and in most leagues, quarterbacks gain 1 point for passing the ball 25 yards down field. They also they gain 1 point for running the ball 10 yards down field themselves. I’m sure you can do the math, but this means that running the ball is worth 2.5 times as many points as passing the ball. This makes rushing quarterbacks a valuable asset to any fantasy football team.
Often times, however, you’ll find that some of the quarterbacks that run the most are doing so to save their own skin. Quarterbacks on teams with poor offensive lines have to scramble and scamper more often than teams with a solid set of big dudes protecting them and giving them time to throw the ball down the field. A panicking quarterback often means lower chances of converting downs and, ultimately, lower chances of scoring. This is bad in fantasy football.
The best quarterbacks for fantasy football purposes are what we call dual threat quarterbacks. They are leaders in passing yards AND rushing yards. The following chart captures both.
Be mindful of the backup quarterbacks that have only recently earned a start for their teams due to injury or the usual starter getting benched. Players like Will Levis, Tyson Bagent, P.J. Walker, Gardner Minshew have recently entered the spotlight due to unforeseen circumstances and thus are lower in all stats as a result.
Entire Season
ELI5: A strong man throws far, a fast man runs far. Get yourself a man who can do both.
In our league, and in most leagues, quarterbacks gain 1 point for passing the ball 25 yards down field. They also they gain 1 point for running the ball 10 yards down field themselves. I’m sure you can do the math, but this means that running the ball is worth 2.5 times as many points as passing the ball. This makes rushing quarterbacks a valuable asset to any fantasy football team.
Often times, however, you’ll find that some of the quarterbacks that run the most are doing so to save their own skin. Quarterbacks on teams with poor offensive lines have to scramble and scamper more often than teams with a solid set of big dudes protecting them and giving them time to throw the ball down the field. A panicking quarterback often means lower chances of converting downs and, ultimately, lower chances of scoring. This is bad in fantasy football.
The best quarterbacks for fantasy football purposes are what we call dual threat quarterbacks. They are leaders in passing yards AND rushing yards. The following chart captures both.
Be mindful of the backup quarterbacks that have only recently earned a start for their teams due to injury or the usual starter getting benched. Players like Will Levis, Tyson Bagent, P.J. Walker, Gardner Minshew have recently entered the spotlight due to unforeseen circumstances and thus are lower in all stats as a result.
Defense
Run Def vs. Pass Def
This Week
The performance of each defense fluctuates throughout the season, sometimes due to injuries, sometimes due to coach staffing changes, and sometimes due to the strength of a teams schedule (read as: having to face more capable opponents). This chart shows at a glance what a team’s defensive strengths and weakness are in terms of stopping the run or shutting down passing plays.
Note that both the x and y axis have been reversed so that you intuitively see the best teams in the upper right hand quadrant. The Cowboys have a stingy defense against running and passing yards, and thus make for a difficult match up if you intend to start players the week they play the Cowboys. In other words, there’s a pretty good chance that your players score less fantasy points than usual against the Cowboys.
Teams like the Giants are a bright green flag - start anyone and everyone who faces them any given week.
Last 4 Weeks
Entire Season
Def EPA vs Off EPA
Last Week
Similarly, we can compare offensive and defensive epas for all 32 teams. A defending team that produces plays with negative epas can be considered successful, since they are reducing their opponents chances of winning. An offense, as we mentioned before, that produces plays with positive epas can be considered successful, since their offensive scheme continually increases their chances of scoring at the end of the drive.
In this graph, teams that excel on offense and defense can be found in the upper right hand corner. Notice that the higher teams on this chart have a negative average defensive EPA. Teams like the Browns, Ravens, Cowboys, and Niners have a star studded defense and have been wrecking havoc on offenses across the league.
Last 4 Weeks
Entire Season
D/ST Stats
Defense / Special Teams Stats over the Past Week
ELI5: Defenses and Special Teams Units get points for things like interceptions, fumbles, and touchdown returns.
As noted above, this table tallies all the extra things that good defenses do to score you extra points. Even if a defense allows 30 + points in a game, if they catch a few interceptions, get a few sacks, or even force a turn over that results in a touch down, they can be awesome to have in your line up.
In the Average Hoes League, teams also score points if they stop an offense on third or fourth down. The table below tallies that as well.
I’ve created a column that tallies all the points that D/STs have earned in the past four weeks for accomplishing these extra tasks. Keep in mind that points are also earned at the end of the game depending on how many points were scored against a defense, so the points column is not how these teams have actually scored over the past two weeks in fantasy football. Predicting how many yards a team will allow is difficult, so think of the points column as a way to look at how a team is capable of scoring extra points despite the number of points they allow to be scored against them in a game.
Matchups
Points Allowed by Position
Who should you start this week? Look up your player’s opponent in this chart. Each box is how many Half PPR fantasy points that defense gives up per game to that position. Green boxes are the juiciest matchups (that defense ranks near the top in points allowed to that position), red boxes are the defenses to avoid. Teams are sorted from the easiest overall matchup at the top to the toughest at the bottom.
Last 4 Weeks
Entire Season
Vegas Implied Totals
ELI5: Vegas thinks these teams will score the most points this week.
Sportsbooks set a point spread (who’s favored and by how much) and an over/under (how many total points both teams will score). Put the two together and you get how many points Vegas expects each team to score. Vegas is very good at this, since they lose money when they’re wrong. More expected points means more touchdowns and yards to go around, so lean towards starting players on teams near the top and be careful with players on teams near the bottom. Games that haven’t had their lines posted yet won’t show up.
Buy Low / Sell High
Every target and carry has an “expected” fantasy value based on where it happened on the field, how far downfield the pass was thrown, and so on. A 5-yard target in the endzone is worth way more than a screen pass at midfield. Add those up and you get how many points a player should have scored given the opportunities he got.
Red bars are players scoring more than their opportunities say they should, usually thanks to long touchdowns or unusually good efficiency. That tends to cool off, so they’re sell-high candidates. Green bars are players getting good opportunities who haven’t cashed in yet. They’re buy-low candidates, since the points usually follow the opportunities.
Last 4 Weeks
Entire Season
Usage
Snap Share Risers and Fallers
You can’t score fantasy points from the sideline. Snap share is the percentage of their team’s offensive plays a player was on the field for, and changes in snap share often show up before the box score catches up. A backup running back whose snaps jump from 30% to 60% is about to get a lot more touches, even if he hasn’t had a big game yet. These are your waiver wire targets (and the fallers are players to worry about).
Only players in the top natural tiers of change make the list. Keep in mind that a big drop can also mean a player got hurt mid-game or missed time.
Risers
Fallers
WOPR
Last Week
Target share tells you how often a player is thrown to, but not all targets are equal. A 25-yard shot down the sideline is worth a lot more than a 2-yard checkdown. WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating) blends target share with air yards share (the share of the team’s passing yards thrown in his direction, including incompletions) into one number. Anything above about 0.70 is elite WR1 territory. Players further up and to the right on this chart are getting both lots of looks and the valuable ones.
ELI5: WOPR is target share with a bonus for deep targets.
Last 4 Weeks
Entire Season
Team Timelines
Pick a team and a stat to see how that team’s production has been split between its players, week by week. The thicker a player’s band, the bigger his piece of the pie that week. Hover over a band to see the exact number, or over a name in the legend to highlight that player. Switch the layout to “Stacked” to see the team total grow or shrink from week to week.
Penalties
Penalties are hidden yardage. Every flag on a defense moves the offense closer to the endzone (and more scoring chances for your players), while every flag on an offense stalls a drive. This chart compares how many penalty yards a team gives away against how many penalty yards their opponents hand them, per game so bye weeks don’t skew things.
The x axis is reversed so the best teams land in the upper right: disciplined teams that rarely get flagged but draw a lot of flags from their opponents. Teams in the lower left keep shooting themselves in the foot.
All Penalties
Third Down Penalties
ELI5: Third down flags extend or kill drives.
Third down is where drives live or die. A defensive holding or pass interference flag on third down usually hands the offense a fresh set of downs, while a false start or holding call on the offense can turn a manageable third down into a hopeless one. Teams that draw a lot of third down flags keep drives alive, which means more chances for your players to rack up yards and touchdowns.
Commish Notes and Future Updates
If you have any questions or suggestions for what you’d like to see in this newsletter, please don’t hesitate to let me know! I’m still learning the in’s and out’s of R (language used to put this all together), and love to challenge myself when it comes to building meaningful visuals. All constructive criticism is appreciated greatly!
Thanks for joining me in this silly game! Fantasy Football is one of my top ten favorite things, and I’m glad I get to share it with friends!
Peace!
Commish Lo