1. Abstract

2. Introduction & Literature Review

3. Data & Methodology

4. Result

Tariff Summary Table

Section 301 tariff lists: coverage, rates, dates and share of US imports from China, 2017–18.
List HS8 codes in tariff file HS8 codes with no imports, 2017–21 Initial rate Effective date Later change Date of change Imports 2017–18 (USD bn) Share of 2017–18 total
List 1 818 26 25.0% Jul 06, 2018
62.2 5.9%
List 2 279 4 25.0% Aug 23, 2018
28.6 2.7%
List 3 5,745 526 10.0% Sep 24, 2018 Raised to 25% May 10, 2019 400.8 38.3%
List 4A 3,233 887 15.0% Sep 01, 2019 Cut to 7.5% Feb 14, 2020 209.2 20.0%
List 4B 550 0 15.0% Dec 15, 2019 Suspended Dec 2019 310.3 29.6%
Never listed
35.8 3.4%
Total
1,443
1,046.9 100.0%
Note: HS8 codes with no imports are tariff-file codes with no recorded imports from China in any month of 2017–21. Imports and shares cover 2017–18. Source: USITC DataWeb; USTR Section 301 notices.

Tree Map

Hypothesis for why tariff-ed products might not show in trade data.
(1) List 4A is technically the rest of what is not tariff-ed. (2) There are trades happening in years in and prior to 2016 that makes USTC decided to place tariffs on certain products. (3) The official statistics compiled into DataWeb typically exclude or under-report low-value formal and informal entry shipments (often transactions under $2,500).

Event Study

\[ \ln\left(Y^{\text{CHN}\to\text{US}}_{\text{HS8},\,t}\right) = \mu_{HS8} + \alpha_t + \sum_{\tau=-q}^{-2} \gamma_\tau D_{HS8,\tau} + \sum_{\tau=0}^{m} \delta_\tau D_{HS8,\tau} + \varepsilon_{HS8, t} \] t: from January 2017 to November 2019 (List 4B’s tariff is scheduled to take effects in December 12 before getting suspended)

## # A tibble: 6 × 3
##   Treated     n list  
##     <int> <int> <chr> 
## 1       0   542 List 1
## 2       1   792 List 1
## 3       0   542 List 2
## 4       1   275 List 2
## 5       0   542 List 3
## 6       1  5219 List 3
##               est         se
## List 1 -0.4861382 0.05219867
## List 2 -0.6072107 0.09133414
## List 3 -0.2405308 0.04522997

List 4A versus never treated 

## Error in legend("bottom", ncol = 2, bty = "n", cex = 0.75, lty = marks_4a$lty, : 'legend' is of length 0
## # A tibble: 2 × 2
##   Treated     n
##     <int> <int>
## 1       0   507
## 2       1  2343
##         est          se 
## -0.28707113  0.07048569

Local Projection

\[ ln(Y^{\text{CHN}\to\text{US}}_{\text{HS8},\,t+h}) - ln(Y^{\text{CHN}\to\text{US}}_{\text{HS8},\,t-1})= \beta\,(\text{Treated}_{\text{HS8}} \times \text{Post}_{\tau}) + \gamma_{\text{HS2}} + \varepsilon_{\text{HS8},\,t} \]

## # A tibble: 3 × 3
##   list   avg_log avg_pct
##   <chr>    <dbl>   <dbl>
## 1 List 1  -0.692   -49.9
## 2 List 2  -0.697   -50.2
## 3 List 3  -0.266   -23.4

## # A tibble: 5 × 4
##       h     est    se     n
##   <dbl>   <dbl> <dbl> <int>
## 1   -18 -0.144  0.229  1821
## 2    -6 -0.0747 0.131  1828
## 3     0 -0.107  0.136  1870
## 4    12 -0.0469 0.212  1826
## 5    27 -0.0372 0.192  1854
## # A tibble: 2 × 3
##   window      avg_log avg_pct
##   <chr>         <dbl>   <dbl>
## 1 months 0-4   -0.153   -14.2
## 2 months 0-12  -0.227   -20.3

Recenter

## # A tibble: 3 × 5
##   list   peak_month   pct     se     n
##   <chr>       <dbl> <dbl>  <dbl> <int>
## 1 List 1         16 -78.2 0.157   1091
## 2 List 2         15 -74.9 0.169    688
## 3 List 3         14 -52.1 0.0730  3579
## # A tibble: 1 × 2
##       n unmatched
##   <int>     <int>
## 1  1620        61
## # A tibble: 19 × 2
##    `Target Primary NAIC 2007`                                                  n
##    <chr>                                                                   <int>
##  1 Internet Service Providers                                                 18
##  2 Alternative Energy Sources                                                 16
##  3 Research and Development in the Physical, Engineering and Life Science…     5
##  4 Coated and Laminated Packaging Paper and Plastics Film Manufacturing        2
##  5 Electrical Contractors                                                      2
##  6 Financial Sponsor                                                           2
##  7 Human Resources and Executive Search Consulting Services                    2
##  8 Instruments and Related Products Manufacturing for Measuring, Displayi…     2
##  9 Search Detection Navigation Guidance Aeronautical and Nautical System …     2
## 10 Air-Conditioning and Warm Air Heating Equipment and Refrigeration Equi…     1
## 11 Commercial and Industrial Machinery and Equipment(except Auto and Elec…     1
## 12 Employee Leasing Services                                                   1
## 13 Infrastructure Fund                                                         1
## 14 Laminated Plastics Plate, Sheet, and Shape Manufacturing                    1
## 15 Other Animal Aquaculture                                                    1
## 16 Support Activities for Nonmetallic Minerals (except Fuels)                  1
## 17 Unsupported Plastics Film and Sheet (except Packaging) Manufacturing        1
## 18 Unsupported Plastics Packaging Film and Sheet Manufacturing                 1
## 19 Warehouse Clubs and Superstores                                             1
## # A tibble: 391 × 2
##    `Target Primary SIC`                                   n
##    <chr>                                              <int>
##  1 Investors, nec                                       117
##  2 Prepackaged Software                                 100
##  3 Semiconductors and related devices                    42
##  4 Pharmaceutical preparations                           32
##  5 Engineering services                                  30
##  6 Information retrieval services                        29
##  7 Land subdividers and developers, except cemeteries    27
##  8 Investment advice                                     25
##  9 Biological products, except diagnostic substances     24
## 10 Electric services                                     24
## # ℹ 381 more rows