For two years, Victoria’s crime headlines had a familiar face: teenagers. Car thefts, home invasions and “youth crime waves” filled the news, and much of the public debate focused on young offenders and bail. But when I opened the Crime Statistics Agency’s own data tables, a different story appeared. The rise was real, but it was mostly about theft, and the people behind the growth were mostly adults.
Between 2022–23 and 2024–25, recorded offences in Victoria climbed from 506,030 to 637,984, an increase of +26%. In 2025–26 the wave finally levelled off at 624,624. Theft (orange) grew by +45% over those three years, compared with +13% for all other offences combined. Use the buttons to switch to rates per 100,000 people: the rise is still clear after allowing for population growth.
Figure 1. Offences recorded in Victoria by type, 2016–17 to 2025–26
Note. Shaded area marks 2022–23 to 2025–26. Years run July to June. Data from Crime Statistics Agency (2026a). Rates use the population implied by CSA rates. Summary: total offences rose from 506,030 to a peak of 637,984 before easing slightly; theft grew fastest.
Between 2022–23 and 2025–26, Victoria recorded 118,594 more offences. Theft alone accounted for 72,723 of them, or about 61%. The four largest increases were all theft: things stolen from cars (+46%), shoplifting (+75%), other theft, and cars themselves (+68%). Hover over a bar for the numbers, or click the legend to hide a group.
Figure 2. The 10 largest increases and 5 largest decreases by offence type, 2022–23 to 2025–26
Note. Offence types are CSA offence subgroups. Data from Crime Statistics Agency (2026a). The near-total fall in “drunk and disorderly in public” reflects a law change, not behaviour: public drunkenness was decriminalised in Victoria on 7 November 2023. Summary: theft offences make up the four largest increases.
If the rise had been driven by young people, it would show up among alleged offenders. It doesn’t. Among people police identified for property and deception offences (the group that includes theft), incidents involving adults rose by 41,172 (+46%), while those involving 10–17 year olds rose by 3,932 (+20%). Adults account for about 91% of the growth, and the largest increases are among people in their 30s. Use the menu to compare females and males.
Figure 3. Alleged offender incidents for property and deception offences by age group, 2022–23 and 2025–26
Note. Counts are incidents with an identified alleged offender, so unsolved thefts are not included. Excludes organisations and offenders of unknown age. The drop among 10–11 year olds reflects the minimum age of criminal responsibility rising from 10 to 12 under the Youth Justice Act 2024 (Vic). Data from Crime Statistics Agency (2026c). Summary: growth is concentrated among adults aged 25–49.
The theft wave reached most of the state: retail theft rose in 56 of 57 LGAs with enough incidents to compare. But it did not hit everywhere equally. The map shows how much each type of theft changed per 100,000 residents in each local government area (LGA). Use the control at the top right to switch between theft types, hover over an area for its numbers, and use the buttons on the left to jump between Victoria and Melbourne.
Figure 4. Change in theft rate per 100,000 residents by LGA, 2022–23 to 2025–26
Note. Rates are criminal incidents per 100,000 residents. LGAs with fewer than 20 incidents of that type in 2022–23 are shown in grey. Changes above 200% are shown in the darkest colour. Data from Crime Statistics Agency (2026b); boundaries from Australian Bureau of Statistics (2016) via the ozmaps package (Sumner, 2021). Summary: retail theft rose in 56 of 57 comparable LGAs, motor vehicle theft in 53 of 61, and theft from motor vehicles in 56 of 68.
Statewide numbers can hide what is happening locally. Choose any LGA from the menu to compare its theft rates (solid lines) with the Victorian average (dotted lines). It opens on Melbourne, which covers the CBD where I study at RMIT. Its rates are very high partly because so many people visit the city but few live there, so rates per resident overstate the risk. Switch to a log scale to compare areas with very different levels.
Figure 5. Theft rate per 100,000 residents in a selected LGA compared with Victoria, 2016–17 to 2025–26
Note. Solid lines show the selected LGA; dotted lines show Victoria. Rates are criminal incidents per 100,000 residents. Data from Crime Statistics Agency (2026b). Summary: the chart opens on Melbourne LGA; each line shows one theft type over ten years against the Victorian average.
Victoria’s recent crime rise was real, but it was not the youth crime wave many people heard about. It was mostly a theft wave, from cars, of cars and from shops, and growth among identified offenders came overwhelmingly from adults. That matters for where attention and money go. Car security and retail theft prevention may do more to reduce crime than another round of youth-focused bail debates. By 2025–26 the wave had started to level off, so the next year of data will show whether it was a peak or a new normal.
Limitations. These are recorded crimes: they depend on what is reported to and detected by police, and on the law at the time. Offender figures only cover incidents where a suspect was identified. LGA rates use residential populations, which overstate risk in places with many visitors, such as the Melbourne CBD.
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Crime Statistics Agency. (2026a). Recorded offences: Data tables, year ending June 2026 [Data set]. Victorian Government. https://discover.data.vic.gov.au/dataset/data-tables-recorded-offences
Crime Statistics Agency. (2026b). Criminal incidents by local government area: Data tables, year ending June 2026 [Data set]. Victorian Government. https://discover.data.vic.gov.au/dataset/criminal-incident
Crime Statistics Agency. (2026c). Alleged offender incidents: Data tables, year ending June 2026 [Data set]. Victorian Government. https://discover.data.vic.gov.au/dataset/data-tables-alleged-offender-incidents
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Youth Justice Act 2024 (Vic).
Data © State of Victoria (Crime Statistics Agency), licensed under CC BY 4.0. Boundaries © Commonwealth of Australia (Australian Bureau of Statistics), CC BY 4.0.
Generative AI acknowledgement. I acknowledge the use of Claude (Anthropic, https://claude.ai) to suggest possible story topics, check that the chosen topic could be supported by public data, refine the writing.The final work is mine and all the results are verified by me.
Anthropic. (2026). Claude (Opus 5.5) [Large language model]. https://claude.ai