Week 5 Assignment 5B Approach - Elo Calculations

Introduction (Approach)

For this assignment, I will build on my Project 1 code, which already parses each player’s pre-tournament rating, total points, and the opponents they faced in each round. Using the Elo expected score formula, I will calculate a player’s expected result for every game based on the rating difference between the player and their opponent, then add those values together to get an expected score for the full tournament. Comparing that expected score to each player’s actual points will show who performed above or below what their rating predicted.

The main challenge is how to handle byes and unplayed rounds. Several players received half or full points in rounds where they did not face an opponent. Those points are included in their total score, but there is no opponent rating to calculate an expected result from. If I compare total points against expected score without adjusting for this, players with byes will appear to overperform. I am considering two options: removing bye points from the actual score, or limiting the comparison to games that were actually played.

To verify the calculation, I will work through one player’s expected score by hand before applying it to the full tournament. Gary Hua is a good test case since his opponents and ratings are already confirmed from Project 1.