(last update: 2026-10-05)

1 A hypothetical example of mock data - demand for Greek yogurt

Projection of demand for Greek yogurt

  • 20 countries (5 randomly selected from 4 sub-regions)
  • 2024-2036
  • Driven by a few factors - i.e., assumptions

Example of potential assumptions

  • Market increase: market size change for overall dairy and/or health food (constant/stable rate of change) - 5 scenarios
  • Greek-yogurt specific demand change (constant/stable rate of change) - 3 scenarios (no, slow, fast increase) expressed in country-specific numeric values
  • Tax on dairy food (shock) - not included in the example
  • Real/Fake news about the product (shock) - not included in the example

In this example, users can change two assumptions.

1.1 Data schema

For the app, we need only

  • country
  • region
  • year
  • [USER INPUT] columns (i.e., select assumptions)
  • [OUTPUT] demand

QUESTION: do you have demand forecast for DMPA SC vs. IM or only SC?

Column name Example values Type Number of unique values Range Note
country Kenya, Madagascar, Rwanda character 20 Country
region Eastern Africa, Southern Africa, Southern Asia character 4 Region
year 2024, 2025, 2026 integer 12 2024 – 2035 Year
scenario_id Fast increase: market projection 97.5th percentile, Fast increase: market projection 90th percentile, Fast increase: market projection 50th percentile factor 15 Scenario ID for internal purposes
market_direction Upper, Median, Lower character 3 Market size projection probability direction
market_projection 97.5, 90, 50 numeric 5 2.5 – 97.5 [USER INPUT 1] Market size projection probability
market_size 56565, 57957, 59400 numeric 1153 474 – 206423 Market size
growth_scenario Fast increase, Slow increase, No change factor 3 [USER INPUT 2] Product growth scenario
base_rate 20, 30, 10 numeric 3 10 – 30 Base rate of change for product growth
annual_change 1.5, 0.5, 0 numeric 5 0 – 3 [USER INPUT 2] Annual rate of change for product growth, country-specific numeric value per growth scenario
growth_rate 0.2, 0.215, 0.23 numeric 47 0.1 – 0.43 Product growth rate
demand 11313, 12461, 13662 numeric 2766 142 – 84633 [OUTPUT] Demand for the product (in thousands)

How much and what information do you want to share with users?

  • market size is an important intermediary outcome, but it can be information overload.
  • annual rate of growth can be country-specific numeric (annual_change) or categorical (growth_scenario).

1.1.1 FYI, further look into growth scenarios

Currently same within a region, just for the purpose of this exercise. This will be likely country specific in the actual DMPA-SC data (mock or real)…

Region Current use rate (base_rate) (%) APPC no change APPC slow increase APPC fast increase
Western Africa 10 0 1.0 3.0
Southern Asia 30 0 0.5 1.0
Eastern Africa 20 0 0.5 1.5
Southern Africa 20 0 0.5 1.5

APPC: Annual percent point change

1.2 Projection by scenario - country/region examples

1.2.1 Togo, Western Africa

1.2.2 Kenya, Eastern Africa

1.2.3 Lesotho, Southern Africa

1.2.4 Sri Lanka, Southern Asia