Catchment: The Conservation and Environmental Reasearch Area (CERA) is a suburban headwater stream in Baltimore County, Maryland (39°14’43”N, 76°42’46”W) on the campus of University of Maryland Baltimore County. This catchemtn drains approximately 0.45 square miles of mixed suburban and secondary forest land cover within a narrow, partially forested riparian corridor. The catchment is adjacent to an interstate highway spur constructed in the 1980s.
Sensor Deployment: Three in-stream sensors were deployed at Downstream, Midstream, and Upstream positions with a fourth Air sensor mounted as a dry atmospheric reference. The Downstream position showed active flow. Midstream was fully submerged within a developed riparian zone. The Upstream position exhibited saturated soils and dense skunk cabbage with the sensor at surface water level.
Goal: To prove that low-cost thermal sensing is a viable approach for detecting subsurface flow activity and assessing flow permanence under ambient weather conditions.
Figure 1: Study area map of CERA Run, Baltimore County, Maryland. Sensor points indicate the locations of the Upstream, Midstream, and Downstream in-stream temperature loggers deployed along the longitudinal transect. The inset map shows the location of CERA Run relative to all study sites within the Baltimore County area.
Figure 2: This chart represents the amount of rainfall that CERA run experienced over the duration of the entire study from July 2025 to May 2026.
Figure 3: Stacked bar chart showing the proportion of days classified as wet (blue), dry (red), and uncertain (gray) for each sensor position aggregated across all eight study catchments.
Figure 4: Daily wetness state classifications for all sensor positions across eight headwater sites from July to October and beyond for some sites. Each row represents a sensor position (Air, Downstream, Midstream, Upstream) and each column represents a single day. Blue indicates wet, red indicates dry, and gray indicates uncertain classifications. A data gap at the Howard County Conservancy corresponds to a sensor error.
Figure 5: September deployment shows the site during
the late summer. All sections of the stream are showing wetness also
exhibiting riparian cover throughout the catchment.
Figure 6: November deployment shows the sensor during
the autumn and closer to the winter season. Down stream has lost the
cover that it initially had during the summer. All part of the stream
are wet but midstream has accumulated huge amounts of fall leaves within
that its section of the stream.
Figure 7: January deployment shows how mid-winter
affects the water surface flow. Here we see both upstream and midstream
in frozen water, specifically midstream is clogged with leaves at the
spot of the sensor.
Figure 7: February deployment shows how late winter
affects the water surface flow. Like the January photos, upstream and
midstream still exhibit frozen waters while downstream contiues to keep
flow.
Figure 8: May deployment shows the effect of the Spring
season. We see that the vegetation has grown since the last deployment
along with decent baseflow in all parts of the stream.
Figure 9: Hourly temperature recorded by all four sensors at CERA Run from July 2025 through May 2026. The Air sensor reflects ambient atmospheric conditions while the three in-stream sensors reflect channel thermal conditions at each longitudinal position. We see temperatures start in the 70’s but by January you’ll notice the temperature goes down to the 30’s along with the air sensor exhibiting larger temperature swings.
Figure 10: Daily mean temperature for all four sensors at Senior Run from July 2025 through May 2026. Averaging hourly readings to a daily mean smooths short-term fluctuations and reveals seasonal temperature trends across the monitoring period. Persistent separation between the Air sensor and in-stream sensors indicates thermal regulation by water, while merging suggests reduced surface water presence.
Purpose: To illustrate sensor response during different atmospheric and seasonal conditions.
4-Panel Plots: A four-panel diagnostic figure showing each sensor’s thermal behavior over a 24-hour period.
Panel 1 shows raw temperature readings.
Panel 2 shows temperature rise above each sensor’s morning minimum.
Panel 3 shows the rate of temperature change per minute.
Panel 4 shows the computed dryness score for each sensor. Scores near 0 indicate wet conditions, scores near 1 indicate dry conditions.
Dryness Score table: A summary of each sensor’s thermal classification for the selected day.
Warming score and cooling score reflect thermal response during the morning and afternoon phases respectively.
Daily score is the average of both.
A conflict flag indicates the two phases produced contradictory results.
Dryness state is the final classification — wet, dry, or uncertain.
Figure 11: Four-panel diagnostic plot for August 14th, 2025. Temperatures ranged from 73–90°F with 1.06 inches of rainfall arriving between 3–4PM. The Upstream sensor warmed rapidly in the morning before the precipitation event abruptly cooled the atmosphere, triggering a conflict flag at that position. Midstream and Downstream remained thermally stable and classified wet throughout the day.
| Sensor | warming_score | cooling_score | daily_score | conflict_flag | wetness_state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air | 1e+00 | 1e+00 | 1e+00 | FALSE | dry |
| Downstream | 4e-04 | 2e-04 | 3e-04 | FALSE | wet |
| Midstream | 0e+00 | 0e+00 | 0e+00 | FALSE | wet |
| Upstream | 4e-04 | 2e-04 | 3e-04 | FALSE | wet |
Table 1: A summary of August 14th’s sensor’s thermal classification. The Upstream sensor warmed rapidly in the morning before the precipitation event abruptly cooled the atmosphere, triggering a conflict flag at that position. Midstream and Downstream remained thermally stable and classified wet throughout the day.
Figure 12: Four-panel diagnostic plot for July 30th, 2025. Temperatures ranged from 94°F to 75°F with up to 10mph winds.
| Sensor | warming_score | cooling_score | daily_score | conflict_flag | wetness_state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | FALSE | dry |
| Downstream | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | FALSE | wet |
| Midstream | 0.5006 | 0.0000 | 0.2503 | TRUE | wet |
| Upstream | 0.5006 | 0.5003 | 0.5004 | FALSE | uncertain |
Table 2: A summary of July 30th’s sensor’s thermal classification. This reading reflects a longitudinal gradient, with upstream being classified as uncertain (the dryest sensor) All the way to Downstream which exhibited no daily score on this date (Wettest).
Figure 13: Four-panel diagnostic plot for December 14th, 2025. Temperatures ranged from 17–36°F with 1/2 a inch of snow. The temperatures of all stream sensors are relatively stagnant through the day. compared to the air sensor which will drop well below freezing according to the raw graph.
| Sensor | warming_score | cooling_score | daily_score | conflict_flag | wetness_state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air | 1e+00 | 1e+00 | 1e+00 | FALSE | dry |
| Downstream | 3e-04 | 2e-04 | 2e-04 | FALSE | wet |
| Midstream | 6e-04 | 2e-04 | 4e-04 | FALSE | wet |
| Upstream | 0e+00 | 0e+00 | 0e+00 | FALSE | wet |
Table 3: A summary of December 14th’s sensor’s thermal classification. All three stream sensors scored within thousandths of zero, indicating near-complete thermal buffering by surface water at every in-stream position. The Air sensor scored 1.0 as expected. No conflict flags are exhibited here.
Figure 14: Four-panel diagnostic plot for December 10th, 2025. Temperatures ranged from 30–45°F with overcast skies and wind gusts of 13 mph. All three stream sensors classified wet with no conflict flags, displaying a clean longitudinal gradient. The Air sensor rose approximately 12°F above its morning minimum while stream sensors rose only 3–5°F — a clear example of winter thermal decoupling between atmospheric and in-stream conditions under cloudy skies.
| Sensor | warming_score | cooling_score | daily_score | conflict_flag | wetness_state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | 1.0000 | FALSE | dry |
| Downstream | 0.0006 | 0.2000 | 0.1003 | FALSE | wet |
| Midstream | 0.0011 | 0.0000 | 0.0006 | FALSE | wet |
| Upstream | 0.0000 | 0.1997 | 0.0999 | FALSE | wet |
Table 4: A summary of December 10th’s sensor’s thermal classification. All three stream sensors classified wet with no conflict flags. during these cold temperatures all sensors remained wet and air still acquired a score of 1 due to the diurnal temperature swings being more aligned with the atmosphere.
CERA maintained consistent surface water presence across all deployment windows, with Downstream and Midstream sensors classifying wet above 85% of days throughout the study period. The overall dryness heat map confirms persistent flow at all three in-stream positions from July 2025 through May 2026, with no dry periods observed at any sensor location. Conflict flags occurred primarily on precipitation days and thermally complex days. Spring conditions introduced increased precipitation frequency and elevated temperatures that produced higher uncertainty counts, specifically looking at the latter end of the downstream sensor on the heat map.Based on the wetness patterns, CERA is classified as a perennial stream. All three in-stream sensor positions maintained surface water presence across summer, fall, winter, and spring conditions, with no seasonal drying pattern observed at any position.