Las Vegas, 4 October. Who survived Bristol, how they built their round 1 lineups, and what that says about the ownership to expect when the field is 40 seats instead of 100.
Ownership below is the geometric mean of a lineup's six drivers, the same measure used all year. "Distinct" counts how many different lineups a player used across their round 1 entries, and "repeats" how many were copies of their own. Click any heading to sort.
| Player | History | R2 seats | R1 entries | Distinct | Own | Cumulative | Chalk drivers | Long shots | 2025 R2 seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moklovin | Returning | 5 | 5 | 2 | 40.4% | 299% | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Fantassin | Returning | 2 | 3 | 3 | 40.0% | 295% | 3.7 | 0.0 | 1 |
| Nitsuj10 | New | 2 | 2 | 2 | 49.8% | 334% | 5.0 | 0.0 | - |
| nyadam240 | New | 2 | 5 | 5 | 28.6% | 238% | 3.0 | 0.6 | - |
| kgdobby | New | 2 | 3 | 3 | 51.4% | 329% | 4.7 | 0.0 | - |
| caid | Returning | 1 +1 | 4 | 4 | 46.1% | 302% | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0 |
| jnoble777 | Returning | 1 +1 | 2 | 2 | 55.6% | 348% | 5.5 | 0.0 | 1 |
| Stingerpat | New | 1 | 2 | 2 | 18.3% | 207% | 3.0 | 1.5 | - |
| zhood14 | New | 1 | 1 | 1 | 31.9% | 284% | 4.0 | 1.0 | - |
| ckk-244ayk | Returning | 1 | 2 | 2 | 11.3% | 162% | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2 |
| mbhabes | New | 1 | 3 | 3 | 33.3% | 264% | 3.7 | 1.0 | - |
| jlv041017 | New | 1 | 1 | 1 | 31.9% | 294% | 4.0 | 1.0 | - |
| robert73ferg | Returning | 1 | 1 | 1 | 27.5% | 287% | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0 |
| MattK_66 | New | 1 | 5 | 5 | 34.6% | 264% | 3.6 | 0.6 | - |
| maxwell52361 | Returning | 1 | 2 | 2 | 43.1% | 305% | 4.0 | 0.5 | 3 |
| LeVerticalDFS | Returning | 1 | 3 | 3 | 45.5% | 311% | 4.0 | 0.0 | 4 |
| paulrobert1989 | New | 1 | 1 | 1 | 42.8% | 312% | 4.0 | 0.0 | - |
| Jadams_27 | Returning | 1 | 2 | 2 | 27.9% | 238% | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1 |
| giffenbone | New | 1 | 1 | 1 | 39.2% | 283% | 4.0 | 0.0 | - |
| 99whammer99 | New | 1 | 1 | 1 | 56.9% | 355% | 6.0 | 0.0 | - |
| Thechamp1995 | New | 1 | 1 | 1 | 56.9% | 355% | 6.0 | 0.0 | - |
| brknets23 | Returning | 1 | 1 | 1 | 56.9% | 355% | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| jnmcabee | New | 1 | 1 | 1 | 56.9% | 355% | 6.0 | 0.0 | - |
| mjwheeler3833 | New | 1 | 1 | 1 | 56.9% | 355% | 6.0 | 0.0 | - |
| mrgoodseats | New | 1 | 1 | 1 | 56.9% | 355% | 6.0 | 0.0 | - |
| vishy2773 | New | 1 | 2 | 2 | 50.9% | 334% | 5.0 | 0.0 | - |
| zapple2 | Returning | 1 | 2 | 2 | 55.6% | 348% | 5.5 | 0.0 | 1 |
| PrinceAden | New | 1 | 1 | 1 | 23.2% | 232% | 3.0 | 2.0 | - |
| CoolEditPros | Returning | 1 | 4 | 4 | 40.0% | 283% | 3.8 | 0.5 | 2 |
| fennell007 | Returning | 1 | 1 | 1 | 38.6% | 279% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| missouristatefan | Returning | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15.9% | 210% | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0 |
Thirty-one people hold the forty seats, the same headcount as the 2025 Round of 40, but more concentrated at the top: moklovin has 5 of them against a high of 4 last year. 17 of the 31 are new to the championship.
Of the 31 people holding seats, 14 played the championship last year, 8 reached the 2025 Round of 40, and 4 went on to the final twelve. The other 17 are new to the event entirely.
| Player | Seats now | 2025 entries | Best 2025 round 1 | Made the 40 | Best in the 40 | Final twelve |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ckk-244ayk | 1 | 3 | 7 | yes | 2 | finalist |
| LeVerticalDFS | 1 | 4 | 9 | yes | 4 | finalist |
| CoolEditPros | 1 | 3 | 21 | yes | 12 | finalist |
| Jadams_27 | 1 | 1 | 39 | yes | 11 | finalist |
| Fantassin | 2 | 5 | 12 | yes | 22 | - |
| jnoble777 | 2 | 3 | 34 | yes | 27 | - |
| maxwell52361 | 1 | 3 | 8 | yes | 13 | - |
| zapple2 | 1 | 3 | 34 | yes | 26 | - |
| moklovin | 5 | 2 | 50 | - | - | - |
| caid | 2 | 3 | 41 | - | - | - |
| robert73ferg | 1 | 1 | 43 | - | - | - |
| brknets23 | 1 | 1 | 50 | - | - | - |
| fennell007 | 1 | 1 | 96 | - | - | - |
| missouristatefan | 1 | 1 | 98 | - | - | - |
The four who have done the whole run before are ckk-244ayk, LeVerticalDFS, CoolEditPros, Jadams_27. LeVerticalDFS is the one to watch on form: 4 entries last year, a finalist, and back again.
Continuity is thin in the other direction too. Of the 31 people in last year's Round of 40, only 8 are back in it, and only 4 of the twelve finalists. The seven missing include the player who won that round outright. Five of last year's qualifiers played round 1 this year and went out at Bristol.
| Round 1 entries | Entries | Own | Cumulative | Chalk drivers | Long shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| advanced | 39 | 41.4% | 300% | 4.4 | 0.6 |
| eliminated | 59 | 37.9% | 283% | 3.9 | 0.6 |
| pending | 2 | 54.4% | 342% | 5.0 | 0.0 |
Across all 100 round 1 entries the average lineup ownership was 39.6%. Among the 39 that advanced it was 41.4%, and among those knocked out 37.9%. Bristol rewarded the popular build, so the players carried into Las Vegas are, on average, the ones comfortable playing it.
The clearest example: 10 entries played one identical lineup in round 1 and every one of them advanced, carrying 99whammer99, brknets23, jnmcabee, jnoble777, mjwheeler3833, mrgoodseats, Nitsuj10, Thechamp1995, vishy2773, zapple2 into round 2. Six of those are single-seat players whose whole championship now rests on a build they shared with ten strangers.
| Style | Players | Seats | Average own |
|---|---|---|---|
| chalk-heavy | 15 | 19 | 52.1% |
| contrarian | 9 | 10 | 24.1% |
| middle | 7 | 12 | 38.0% |
Roughly half the seats belong to players who built at 42% ownership or higher in round 1, and a quarter to players who went their own way at around 24%. That split is the starting point for the round 2 field model: these are not interchangeable public seats, they are 31 known players whose behaviour we have just watched.
Only one player duplicated his own lineup in round 1 and survived: moklovin, whose five seats came from two builds. He is 12.5% of the round 2 field on his own, so whatever he plays lands in the ownership twice over.
| Entries held in round 1 (2026) | Players | Entries | Advanced | Per entry | Got at least one through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38 | 38 | 14 | 37% | 37% |
| 2 | 12 | 24 | 9 | 38% | 67% |
| 3 | 5 | 15 | 6 | 40% | 80% |
| 4 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 25% | 100% |
| 5 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 53% | 100% |
| Entries held in the 2025 Round of 40 | Players | Entries | Advanced | Per entry | Got at least one through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25 | 25 | 7 | 28% | 28% |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 38% | 75% |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 50% | 100% |
In last year's Round of 40 the multi-seat players did the damage. The one player with four entries put two into the final twelve, three of the four two-entry players got someone through, and the single-entry players advanced at 28%. Holding more seats buys more chances at a small field, which is the whole argument for moklovin's five.
The 2025 Round of 40 ran at Bristol on 13 September. Scoring all forty lineups from our own results database reproduces the ranks recorded at the time exactly, 17 of 17 on the entries we have a record for, so the twelve below are the confirmed finalists.
| Finish | Entry | Own | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Helldog | 23.4% | 188% |
| 2 | ckk-244ayk (1/2) | 17.2% | 152% |
| 3 | OneDropKing (2/2) | 9.7% | 95% |
| 4 | LeVerticalDFS (3/4) | 27.4% | 212% |
| 5 | LeVerticalDFS (2/4) | 24.4% | 205% |
| 6 | pebcak1 | 29.1% | 222% |
| 7 | itsdougtastic | 31.4% | 230% |
| 8 | acs204 | 39.0% | 262% |
| 9 | IN-THE-MONEY | 28.3% | 225% |
| 10 | AJTruth33 | 31.2% | 228% |
| 11 | Jadams_27 | 32.1% | 238% |
| 12 | CoolEditPros (1/2) | 29.0% | 228% |
The twelve who advanced averaged 26.8% ownership against 33.9% for the twenty-eight who did not, and the winner played a 23.4% lineup. That is the opposite of what Bristol paid this year, and it is the strongest caution on this page: a 40-seat field is small enough that one popular driver failing takes out most of the room at once.
| Player | 2025 round 1 own | 2025 Round of 40 own | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| dumpingthestripe132 | 22.8% | 43.3% | +20.5 |
| muskrat2 | 38.5% | 41.6% | +3.1 |
| wphsu99 | 36.5% | 41.6% | +5.1 |
| JackStraw55 | 41.8% | 40.8% | -1.1 |
| Ulmo | 40.6% | 40.8% | +0.1 |
| maxwell52361 | 32.1% | 40.7% | +8.7 |
| iTrustedTheProcess | 22.8% | 40.5% | +17.7 |
| sullybrochill | 41.7% | 40.0% | -1.7 |
| acs204 | 33.2% | 39.0% | +5.8 |
| sponsljp | 33.1% | 38.9% | +5.8 |
| Eric_Caldwell | 33.4% | 38.4% | +4.9 |
| lampinslosers | 38.3% | 37.7% | -0.6 |
| cashbury | 37.7% | 35.9% | -1.8 |
| scottv84 | 32.7% | 34.6% | +1.9 |
| jnoble777 | 37.2% | 33.4% | -3.7 |
| Jadams_27 | 29.6% | 32.1% | +2.5 |
| ktmstars | 30.5% | 32.0% | +1.5 |
| itsdougtastic | 37.4% | 31.4% | -6.0 |
| AJTruth33 | 29.6% | 31.2% | +1.6 |
| LeVerticalDFS | 21.3% | 29.4% | +8.1 |
| pebcak1 | 25.9% | 29.1% | +3.2 |
| IN-THE-MONEY | 22.3% | 28.3% | +6.0 |
| OneDropKing | 19.0% | 25.6% | +6.7 |
| zapple2 | 38.1% | 25.3% | -12.8 |
| CoolEditPros | 35.1% | 24.8% | -10.4 |
| Fantassin | 38.4% | 24.3% | -14.1 |
| Helldog | 15.8% | 23.4% | +7.6 |
| UltimateWin4 | 18.0% | 20.8% | +2.9 |
| Oxyfide | 14.2% | 18.5% | +4.3 |
| TooEasy27 | 42.3% | 18.0% | -24.3 |
| ckk-244ayk | 21.4% | 15.6% | -5.8 |
Two forces pulled against each other last year. Individually, 20 of the 31 players who appeared in both rounds went chalkier, on average +1.2 points. But the field as a whole went the other way, from 33.1% to 31.8%, because Darlington eliminated the chalk-heavy players: the entries that advanced averaged 29.7% ownership against 35.3% for those knocked out.
This year the selection ran the other way. Bristol rewarded the popular build, so the survivors are the chalk-heavy ones: 41.4% against 37.9% for those eliminated. Expect both effects at Las Vegas, pointing the same direction for once: individually chalkier players, drawn from a pool that is already chalkier than the round 1 field was.
Field ownership tracks DraftKings main-slate ownership raised to a power. Fitted on 2025 at Darlington the exponent was 1.69; fitted independently on 2026 at Bristol it was 1.67. Carrying the 2025 number straight onto Bristol fit as well as Bristol's own best fit, an average error of 8.3 points either way, across a year apart and two different track types.
Our round 1 field model used 2.2 instead, which was worse: 8.8 points of error against 8.3. Round 2 should use about 1.69.
| Salary | Drivers | Model says | Field played | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| under $6k | 12 | 7% | 15% | +8.5 |
| $6-8k | 13 | 11% | 9% | -2.5 |
| $8-10k | 7 | 19% | 12% | -6.9 |
| $10k and up | 5 | 48% | 44% | -4.2 |
The same pattern held in both years: this field plays cheap drivers harder than the power law expects and the $8-10k tier lighter. A salary tilt on top of the exponent fixes most of it.