Winning score232.41st of 172,761
Top 1% line179.81,622 distinct lineups made it
Cash line135.522.5% of entries paid
Pool's best, on real points221.9would have finished 8th
Re-sim, not lock-time. The input sheet was simmed again (25,000 sims, 5,000-lineup pool) and every lineup scored on DK’s actual points. It shows what the tools could have produced, not anyone’s actual entries.
Read with care. The input sheet for this slate was saved after lock, so this re-sim is illustrative: it may know things that were not known at lock.
1. Where the best lineups sat in the pool
The hindsight optimal, the actual winner, and the pool lineups that outscored the winner, ranked the way you would sort the pool in SimApp (1 = top of the list, out of 5,000).
| Lineup | Pts | Finish | Pool | Rank by Top 1% | by Win % | by Top 5% | by Proj |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hindsight optimal CeeDee Lamb, Dak Prescott, Dalton Schultz, DeVonta Smith, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jonah Coleman, Omarion Hampton, Panthers, Tre Tucker · $49,800 | 258.5 | 1st | Not in pool | 4,825 | 4,275* | 4,974 | below all |
| Contest winner Patriots, George Kittle, Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, J.K. Dobbins, Dalton Schultz, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, CeeDee Lamb, Tre Tucker · $50,000 | 232.4 | 1st | Not in pool | 463 | 740* | 377 | 785 |
| Pool's best lineup Dak Prescott, Aaron Jones Sr., Bucky Irving, CeeDee Lamb, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ja'Marr Chase, Dalton Schultz, Jake Ferguson, Jets · $50,000 | 221.9 | 8th | In pool | 360 | 453* | 437 | 1,267 |
* tied with many lineups on Win %; the rank shown is the best of the tie. “Below all” = a lower projection than every lineup in the pool.
The read. No pool lineup reached the winning score. The pool’s best scored 221.9 (it would have finished 8th) and sat 360th by Top 1%. The winner was not in the pool (it would have ranked 463rd by Top 1%, 740th by Win %). The hindsight optimal scored 258.5 at $49,800 and ranked 4,825th by Top 1%.
2. The best lineups the sims built
The pool’s highest-scoring lineups on real points, with where each sat in SimApp’s sorts. Ownership is the contest field’s actual ownership.
221.9
pts · finished 8th
$50,000
122% own
122% own
| Player | Sal | Own | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Dak Prescott DAL | $6.4 | 13.0% | 29.8 |
| RB | Bucky Irving TB | $6.1 | 12.2% | 13.0 |
| RB | Aaron Jones Sr. MIN | $5.1 | 21.6% | 13.5 |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA | $8.1 | 10.2% | 45.5 |
| WR | Ja'Marr Chase CIN | $7.6 | 14.1% | 26.5 |
| WR | CeeDee Lamb DAL | $7.3 | 19.0% | 38.3 |
| TE | Jake Ferguson DAL | $3.8 | 4.6% | 20.3 |
| TE | Dalton Schultz HOU | $3.2 | 22.4% | 29.0 |
| DST | Jets NYJ | $2.4 | 4.6% | 6.0 |
Top1 #360Win #453*Top5 #437Proj #1,267
214.4
pts · finished 25th
$49,400
102% own
102% own
| Player | Sal | Own | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Drew Lock SEA | $4.9 | 1.2% | 21.4 |
| RB | Christian McCaffrey SF | $8.0 | 22.8% | 22.6 |
| RB | Tyler Allgeier ARI | $4.9 | 0.2% | 3.9 |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA | $8.1 | 10.2% | 45.5 |
| WR | CeeDee Lamb DAL | $7.3 | 19.0% | 38.3 |
| WR | Parker Washington JAX | $5.9 | 9.3% | 16.8 |
| TE | Mark Andrews BAL | $4.4 | 12.0% | 10.9 |
| TE | Dalton Schultz HOU | $3.2 | 22.4% | 29.0 |
| DST | Panthers CAR | $2.7 | 4.9% | 26.0 |
Top1 #207Win #157*Top5 #366Proj #1,845
207.6
pts · finished 66th
$49,700
102% own
102% own
| Player | Sal | Own | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Brock Purdy SF | $6.2 | 9.5% | 28.5 |
| RB | Javonte Williams DAL | $6.4 | 17.1% | 8.0 |
| RB | Aaron Jones Sr. MIN | $5.1 | 21.6% | 13.5 |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA | $8.1 | 10.2% | 45.5 |
| WR | DeVonta Smith PHI | $6.8 | 3.7% | 30.7 |
| WR | Mike Evans SF | $6.6 | 8.1% | 8.4 |
| TE | George Kittle SF | $4.6 | 4.5% | 18.0 |
| TE | Dalton Schultz HOU | $3.2 | 22.4% | 29.0 |
| DST | Panthers CAR | $2.7 | 4.9% | 26.0 |
Top1 #45Win #56*Top5 #128Proj #1,874
207.4
pts · finished 67th
$50,000
113% own
113% own
| Player | Sal | Own | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Dak Prescott DAL | $6.4 | 13.0% | 29.8 |
| RB | Breece Hall NYJ | $6.2 | 9.1% | 14.2 |
| RB | Aaron Jones Sr. MIN | $5.1 | 21.6% | 13.5 |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA | $8.1 | 10.2% | 45.5 |
| WR | Chris Olave NO | $7.2 | 4.5% | 22.6 |
| WR | George Pickens DAL | $6.3 | 18.7% | 10.0 |
| WR | Rashod Bateman BAL | $4.4 | 7.9% | 21.8 |
| TE | Dalton Schultz HOU | $3.2 | 22.4% | 29.0 |
| DST | Patriots NE | $3.1 | 5.3% | 21.0 |
Top1 #1,508Win #265*Top5 #2,389Proj #3,750
207.2
pts · finished 68th
$49,900
77% own
77% own
| Player | Sal | Own | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Brock Purdy SF | $6.2 | 9.5% | 28.5 |
| RB | De'Von Achane MIA | $6.7 | 4.1% | 12.3 |
| RB | Bucky Irving TB | $6.1 | 12.2% | 13.0 |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA | $8.1 | 10.2% | 45.5 |
| WR | CeeDee Lamb DAL | $7.3 | 19.0% | 38.3 |
| WR | Stefon Diggs WAS | $5.3 | 9.2% | 21.7 |
| WR | Rashod Bateman BAL | $4.4 | 7.9% | 21.8 |
| TE | Charlie Kolar LAC | $2.7 | 0.0% | 5.1 |
| DST | Patriots NE | $3.1 | 5.3% | 21.0 |
Top1 #3,200Win #1,796*Top5 #3,318Proj #4,004
202.3
pts · finished 120th
$50,000
89% own
89% own
| Player | Sal | Own | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Tyler Shough NO | $5.3 | 3.1% | 22.4 |
| RB | Christian McCaffrey SF | $8.0 | 22.8% | 22.6 |
| RB | Chuba Hubbard CAR | $5.8 | 4.7% | 14.4 |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA | $8.1 | 10.2% | 45.5 |
| WR | Chris Olave NO | $7.2 | 4.5% | 22.6 |
| WR | Tee Higgins CIN | $6.1 | 3.4% | 14.5 |
| TE | Michael Mayer LV | $3.6 | 13.1% | 5.3 |
| TE | Dalton Schultz HOU | $3.2 | 22.4% | 29.0 |
| DST | Panthers CAR | $2.7 | 4.9% | 26.0 |
Top1 #69Win #13*Top5 #322Proj #2,695
200.5
pts · finished 154th
$50,000
103% own
103% own
| Player | Sal | Own | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Brock Purdy SF | $6.2 | 9.5% | 28.5 |
| RB | MarShawn Lloyd GB | $5.3 | 0.9% | 9.6 |
| RB | Aaron Jones Sr. MIN | $5.1 | 21.6% | 13.5 |
| RB | J.K. Dobbins DEN | $5.0 | 2.5% | 3.6 |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA | $8.1 | 10.2% | 45.5 |
| WR | Ja'Marr Chase CIN | $7.6 | 14.1% | 26.5 |
| WR | CeeDee Lamb DAL | $7.3 | 19.0% | 38.3 |
| TE | Dalton Schultz HOU | $3.2 | 22.4% | 29.0 |
| DST | Browns CLE | $2.2 | 2.6% | 6.0 |
Top1 #539Win #2,548*Top5 #347Proj #752
199.8
pts · finished 166th
$49,800
101% own
101% own
| Player | Sal | Own | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Drew Lock SEA | $4.9 | 1.2% | 21.4 |
| RB | Chuba Hubbard CAR | $5.8 | 4.7% | 14.4 |
| RB | Aaron Jones Sr. MIN | $5.1 | 21.6% | 13.5 |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA | $8.1 | 10.2% | 45.5 |
| WR | Ja'Marr Chase CIN | $7.6 | 14.1% | 26.5 |
| WR | CeeDee Lamb DAL | $7.3 | 19.0% | 38.3 |
| WR | KC Concepcion Jr. CLE | $4.1 | 1.6% | 8.2 |
| TE | Dalton Schultz HOU | $3.2 | 22.4% | 29.0 |
| DST | Eagles PHI | $3.7 | 6.1% | 3.0 |
Top1 #170Win #56*Top5 #298Proj #1,425
The read. These 8 finished between 8th and 166th and ranked 45th to 3,200th by Top 1%. Common to most: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (8 of 8), Dalton Schultz (7 of 8). The low-owned piece they shared: Panthers, DST at $2,700, 4.9% owned, 26.0 pts, in 3 of 8.
3. The pool against the contest
Every pool lineup scored on real points and dropped into the real standings.
Sim poolContest field
| Lineup finished | Sim pool | Field | Pool vs field |
|---|---|---|---|
| Would have won | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00x |
| Top 10 | 0.02% | 0.01% | 3.46x |
| Top 1% | 1.56% | 1.00% | 1.56x |
| Cashed | 30.58% | 22.48% | 1.36x |
The read. Median score 121.6 for the pool against 113.8 for the field. The pool cashed at 1.36× the field’s rate, put more lineups in the top 1% (1.56×), and no pool lineup beat the winning score.
4. What would have worked in this contest
150 entries drawn from the pool, sorted by each metric and cut to each size (200 random draws of 150 from the cut; “Top 150” is one fixed set). The highlighted cell is the best in each table.
Share of the 150 in the top 1% (field: 1.00%)
| Sort pool by | Top 150 | Top 500 | Top 1,000 | Top 2,500 | All 5,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 1% | 8.00% | 5.12% | 4.34% | 2.49% | 1.50% |
| Win % | 6.67% | 4.08% | 3.31% | 2.28% | 1.55% |
| Top 5% | 8.67% | 6.86% | 4.00% | 2.54% | 1.62% |
| Projection | 4.67% | 3.61% | 3.13% | 1.94% | 1.54% |
Chance the 150 held at least one top-1% lineup
| Sort pool by | Top 150 | Top 500 | Top 1,000 | Top 2,500 | All 5,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 97% | 88% |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | 100% | 98% | 90% |
| Top 5% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 98% | 92% |
| Projection | 100% | 100% | 99% | 92% | 92% |
Share of the 150 that cashed (field: 22.5%)
| Sort pool by | Top 150 | Top 500 | Top 1,000 | Top 2,500 | All 5,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 1% | 52.0% | 42.8% | 40.8% | 36.9% | 30.4% |
| Win % | 40.7% | 38.9% | 37.6% | 32.2% | 30.5% |
| Top 5% | 54.0% | 44.6% | 43.2% | 37.1% | 30.1% |
| Projection | 44.0% | 41.6% | 38.2% | 33.4% | 30.4% |
The read. The top 150 by each metric put 4.67–8.67% of their lineups in the top 1% and cashed 41–54% (field: 22%). The best cell was Top 5% at the top 150: 8.67% in the top 1%, 54.0% cashed.
5. Where the filtered pool differed from the field
The best cut from section 4 (top 150 by Top 5%): how often each player appeared in it against how often the field played him. Hit = beat the field’s average pace of 2.28 pts per $1k.
Pool was heavier than the field
| Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Pool | Field own | Diff | DK pts | Pts/$1k | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HOU | $3,200 | 72.0% | 22.4% | +49.6 | 29.0 | 9.06 | Hit |
| Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | $4,400 | 41.3% | 12.0% | +29.3 | 10.9 | 2.48 | Hit |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | CAR | $5,800 | 25.3% | 4.7% | +20.6 | 14.4 | 2.48 | Hit |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | $6,000 | 18.7% | 3.3% | +15.3 | 8.9 | 1.48 | Bust |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | $8,000 | 37.3% | 22.8% | +14.5 | 22.6 | 2.83 | Hit |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | NYJ | $6,000 | 24.7% | 12.1% | +12.6 | 16.7 | 2.78 | Hit |
| Terry McLaurin | WR | WAS | $5,200 | 26.7% | 14.1% | +12.6 | 7.0 | 1.35 | Bust |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | ATL | $8,200 | 58.7% | 47.2% | +11.4 | 11.1 | 1.35 | Bust |
Pool was lighter than the field
| Player | Pos | Team | Salary | Pool | Field own | Diff | DK pts | Pts/$1k | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | RB | BAL | $7,200 | 10.7% | 37.5% | -26.8 | 17.7 | 2.46 | Hit |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | TB | $6,400 | 0.7% | 13.5% | -12.9 | 10.3 | 1.61 | Bust |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | PHI | $7,000 | 0.0% | 10.6% | -10.6 | 3.0 | 0.43 | Bust |
| Christian Watson | WR | GB | $6,200 | 1.3% | 11.5% | -10.2 | 14.1 | 2.27 | Bust |
| Jaguars | DST | JAX | $2,400 | 0.0% | 9.3% | -9.3 | 3.0 | 1.25 | Bust |
| Devaughn Vele | WR | NO | $4,200 | 0.0% | 9.2% | -9.2 | 11.4 | 2.71 | Hit |
| David Montgomery | RB | HOU | $6,500 | 1.3% | 10.3% | -9.0 | 4.4 | 0.68 | Bust |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | $4,700 | 7.3% | 14.8% | -7.5 | 9.8 | 2.09 | Bust |
By position
| Pos | Pool: players per lineup | Field | Pool: avg pts per player | Field |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 1.00 | 1.00 | 19.7 | 17.0 |
| RB | 2.43 | 2.50 | 13.2 | 12.5 |
| WR | 3.09 | 3.32 | 16.7 | 14.1 |
| TE | 1.48 | 1.17 | 18.4 | 11.5 |
| DST | 1.00 | 1.00 | 9.1 | 7.0 |
The read. Of the eight biggest overweights, 5 hit; of the eight biggest underweights, 2 hit.
Other contests on this slate
The same pool placed in each contest’s own standings. “Pool cashed” is against the contest’s paid share; “Best setting” is the sort and cut from section 4 that did best there (top-1% share for tournaments, cash share for double-ups).
| Contest | Fee | Entries | Win | Cash line | Pool cashed / paid | Pool top 1% | Best setting | Its result | Top 150 by Top 1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mid-stakes GPP NFL $800K Play-Action [20 Entry Max] | $3 | 317,082 | 243.3 | 130.2 | 37.9% / 25.5% | 2.08% | Top 5%, top 150 | 8.67% top 1% | 8.67% |
| High stakes NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st] | $555 | 5,666 | 218.9 | 144.2 | 20.5% / 22.2% | 0.92% | Top 5%, top 150 | 6.00% top 1% | 6.00% |
| 3-max NFL $250K Power Sweep [$50K to 1st, 3 Entry Max] | $150 | 1,851 | 213.7 | 143.3 | 21.3% / 21.5% | 0.64% | Top 5%, top 150 | 5.33% top 1% | 5.33% |
| Single entry NFL $400K Spy [$100K to 1st, Single Entry] | $100 | 4,444 | 213.8 | 141.6 | 23.3% / 20.1% | 1.30% | Top 5%, top 150 | 7.33% top 1% | 6.67% |
| Satellite $14M 2026 Fantasy Football World Championship Qualifier #24 | $18 | 5,000 | 222.6 | 167.8 | 4.7% / 5.2% | 0.70% | Top 1%, top 150 | 6.00% top 1% | 6.00% |
| Satellite NFL SUPERSat to $20 NFL Fantasy Football Millionaire [25x] | $0.25 | 2,378 | 215.1 | 177.8 | 1.9% / 1.1% | 1.90% | Top 1%, top 150 | 8.67% top 1% | 8.67% |
| Satellite NFL Satellite to NFL $4,444 Fantasy Football MEGA Millionaire | $13 | 402 | 202.7 | 202.7 | 0.1% / 0.2% | 1.34% | Top 5%, top 150 | 7.33% top 1% | 6.67% |
| Satellite NFL $125 2026 FFWC Qualifier Satellite | $1 | 148 | 206.1 | 206.1 | 0.1% / 0.7% | 0.28% | Top 1%, top 150 | 2.67% top 1% | 2.67% |
| Satellite NFL SUPERSatellite to NHL 10-13 $360 Spin-O-Rama [3x] | $12 | 84 | 176.9 | 175.3 | 2.4% / 3.6% | 2.12% | Top 1%, top 150 | 9.33% top 1% | 9.33% |
| Satellite NFL $1,350 2026 FFWC Qualifier Satellite | $23 | 69 | 187.5 | 187.5 | 0.7% / 1.4% | 0.66% | Top 1%, top 150 | 5.33% top 1% | 5.33% |
| Satellite NFL $18 2026 FFWC Qualifier SUPERSatellite [4x] | $1 | 59 | 183.8 | 166.1 | 5.2% / 6.8% | 0.96% | Top 1%, top 150 | 6.67% top 1% | 6.67% |
| Double-up (low) NFL GIANT $2 Double Up | $2 | 11,208 | 215.4 | 141.8 | 23.1% / 44.6% | – | Top 5%, top 150 | 50.0% cash | 46.7% |
| Double-up (high) NFL GIANT $100 Double Up [Single Entry] | $100 | 555 | 216.7 | 147.0 | 18.0% / 45.2% | – | Top 1%, top 150 | 40.7% cash | 40.7% |
Small fields make these noisy: in a contest of a few hundred, the top 1% is a handful of entries.