CFB Late Night 19 Sep: How the Sims Did

Winning score221.71st of 2,745

Top 1% line197.328 distinct lineups made it

Cash line153.821.2% of entries paid

Pool's best, on real points223.93 pool lineups beat the winner

Re-sim, not lock-time. The lock-time input sheet was simmed again (25,000 sims, 5,000-lineup pool) and every lineup scored on DK’s actual points. It shows what the tools could have produced, not anyone’s actual entries.

1. Where the best lineups sat in the pool

The hindsight optimal, the actual winner, and every pool lineup that outscored the winner, ranked the way you would sort the pool in SimApp (1 = top of the list, out of 4,994).

Lineup	Pts	Finish	Pool	Rank by Top 1%	by Win %	by Top 5%	by Proj
Hindsight optimal Anthony Ivey, Asaad Waseem, Jackson Williams, Javion Kinnard, Noah Fifita, Ryan Browne, Wayne Knight, Xavier Townsend · $46,800	260.0	1st	Not in pool	4,864	1,707*	5,000	below all
Contest winner Xavier Townsend, Ryan Browne, Anthony Woods, Wayne Knight, Noah Fifita, Asaad Waseem, Tre Spivey, Chris Hunter · $49,400	221.7	1st	Not in pool	3,588	144*	4,951	below all
Pool lineup #1 Noah Fifita, Myles Mitchell, Javion Kinnard, Semaj Morgan, Asaad Waseem, Tre Spivey, Wayne Knight, Nico Iamaleava · $50,000	223.9	1st	In pool	793	622*	959	1,086
Pool lineup #2 Noah Fifita, Myles Mitchell, Javion Kinnard, Semaj Morgan, Xavier Townsend, Brian Rowe Jr., Wayne Knight, Nico Iamaleava · $48,600	223.7	1st	In pool	2,292	3,032*	2,375	2,831
Pool lineup #3 Noah Fifita, Quincy Craig, Javion Kinnard, Asaad Waseem, Josiah Freeman, Jackson Williams, Wayne Knight, Nico Iamaleava · $50,000	222.6	1st	In pool	1,652	331*	2,263	2,880

* tied with many lineups on Win %; the rank shown is the best of the tie. “Below all” = a lower projection than every lineup in the pool.

The read. The pool held 3 lineups that would have won, but none sat near the top of any sort: the best-placed was 793rd by Top 1%. Keeping all 3 needed the top 2,292 by Top 1%. The winner itself was not in the pool (it rated 3,588th by Top 1%, 144th by Win %); the hindsight optimal left $3,200 on the table and rated near the bottom on everything.

2. The best lineups the sims built

The pool’s eight highest-scoring lineups on real points, with where each sat in SimApp’s sorts. Ownership is the contest field’s actual ownership.

223.9

pts · finished 1st

$50,000
237% own

	Player	Sal	Own	Pts
QB	Noah Fifita ARIZ	$8.3	55.7%	38.4
QB	Nico Iamaleava UCLA	$7.8	42.5%	28.5
RB	Wayne Knight UCLA	$8.1	33.0%	38.0
RB	Myles Mitchell NDSU	$5.7	40.0%	11.8
RB	Javion Kinnard SDSU	$5.0	2.0%	38.1
WR	Asaad Waseem PUR	$5.7	15.3%	24.9
WR	Tre Spivey ARIZ	$5.7	27.5%	21.0
WR	Semaj Morgan UCLA	$3.7	21.2%	23.2

Top1 #793Win #622*Top5 #959Proj #1,086

223.7

pts · finished 1st

$48,600
228% own

	Player	Sal	Own	Pts
QB	Noah Fifita ARIZ	$8.3	55.7%	38.4
QB	Nico Iamaleava UCLA	$7.8	42.5%	28.5
RB	Wayne Knight UCLA	$8.1	33.0%	38.0
RB	Myles Mitchell NDSU	$5.7	40.0%	11.8
RB	Javion Kinnard SDSU	$5.0	2.0%	38.1
WR	Brian Rowe Jr. UCLA	$5.2	22.4%	8.5
WR	Xavier Townsend PUR	$4.8	11.1%	37.2
WR	Semaj Morgan UCLA	$3.7	21.2%	23.2

Top1 #2,292Win #3,032*Top5 #2,375Proj #2,831

222.6

pts · finished 1st

$50,000
188% own

	Player	Sal	Own	Pts
QB	Noah Fifita ARIZ	$8.3	55.7%	38.4
QB	Nico Iamaleava UCLA	$7.8	42.5%	28.5
RB	Wayne Knight UCLA	$8.1	33.0%	38.0
RB	Javion Kinnard SDSU	$5.0	2.0%	38.1
RB	Quincy Craig ARIZ	$4.8	9.6%	3.8
WR	Asaad Waseem PUR	$5.7	15.3%	24.9
WR	Josiah Freeman FRES	$5.4	17.7%	21.5
WR	Jackson Williams NDSU	$4.9	12.3%	29.4

Top1 #1,652Win #331*Top5 #2,263Proj #2,880

221.4

pts · finished 2nd

$49,500
210% own

	Player	Sal	Own	Pts
QB	Noah Fifita ARIZ	$8.3	55.7%	38.4
QB	Nico Iamaleava UCLA	$7.8	42.5%	28.5
RB	Wayne Knight UCLA	$8.1	33.0%	38.0
RB	Kedrick Reescano ARIZ	$6.3	25.7%	4.3
RB	Javion Kinnard SDSU	$5.0	2.0%	38.1
WR	Josiah Freeman FRES	$5.4	17.7%	21.5
WR	Jackson Williams NDSU	$4.9	12.3%	29.4
WR	Semaj Morgan UCLA	$3.7	21.2%	23.2

Top1 #1,916Win #622*Top5 #1,997Proj #3,456

218.8

pts · finished 3rd

$49,600
177% own

	Player	Sal	Own	Pts
QB	Noah Fifita ARIZ	$8.3	55.7%	38.4
QB	Nico Iamaleava UCLA	$7.8	42.5%	28.5
RB	Wayne Knight UCLA	$8.1	33.0%	38.0
RB	Telly Johnson Jr. NIU	$5.2	3.2%	8.1
RB	Javion Kinnard SDSU	$5.0	2.0%	38.1
WR	Josiah Freeman FRES	$5.4	17.7%	21.5
WR	Jackson Williams NDSU	$4.9	12.3%	29.4
WR	DeAree Rogers NIU	$4.9	10.7%	16.8

Top1 #1,652Win #850*Top5 #2,941Proj #4,827

214.0

pts · finished 7th

$49,700
216% own

	Player	Sal	Own	Pts
QB	Noah Fifita ARIZ	$8.3	55.7%	38.4
QB	Nico Iamaleava UCLA	$7.8	42.5%	28.5
RB	Wayne Knight UCLA	$8.1	33.0%	38.0
RB	Rayshon Luke FRES	$6.0	20.3%	7.5
RB	Javion Kinnard SDSU	$5.0	2.0%	38.1
WR	Tre Spivey ARIZ	$5.7	27.5%	21.0
WR	Xavier Townsend PUR	$4.8	11.1%	37.2
WR	Rodney Gallagher III ARIZ	$4.0	24.1%	5.3

Top1 #1,703Win #1,707*Top5 #1,972Proj #2,645

213.9

pts · finished 7th

$49,900
229% own

	Player	Sal	Own	Pts
QB	Noah Fifita ARIZ	$8.3	55.7%	38.4
QB	Nico Iamaleava UCLA	$7.8	42.5%	28.5
RB	Wayne Knight UCLA	$8.1	33.0%	38.0
RB	Bryson Donelson FRES	$5.8	20.4%	13.1
RB	Myles Mitchell NDSU	$5.7	40.0%	11.8
WR	Jackson Williams NDSU	$4.9	12.3%	29.4
WR	Xavier Townsend PUR	$4.8	11.1%	37.2
WR	Matt Coleman SSU	$4.5	14.2%	17.5

Top1 #336Win #1,212*Top5 #334Proj #276

213.1

pts · finished 7th

$49,000
221% own

	Player	Sal	Own	Pts
QB	Noah Fifita ARIZ	$8.3	55.7%	38.4
QB	Nico Iamaleava UCLA	$7.8	42.5%	28.5
RB	Wayne Knight UCLA	$8.1	33.0%	38.0
RB	Javion Kinnard SDSU	$5.0	2.0%	38.1
RB	Quincy Craig ARIZ	$4.8	9.6%	3.8
WR	Carson Clark SJSU	$6.4	44.4%	13.7
WR	Jackson Williams NDSU	$4.9	12.3%	29.4
WR	Semaj Morgan UCLA	$3.7	21.2%	23.2

Top1 #2,059Win #1,212*Top5 #2,577Proj #3,448

The read. The best of these ranked 336th by Top 1%. All eight played Noah Fifita with a second QB in the S-FLEX, and seven of the eight held Javion Kinnard (2% owned, 38.1 pts at $5,000), the one low-owned piece that separated them. All eight would have finished 7th or better.

3. The pool against the contest

Every pool lineup scored on real points and dropped into the real standings.

Sim poolContest field

Lineup finished	Sim pool	Field	Pool vs field
Would have won	0.06%	0.04%	1.65x
Top 10	0.20%	0.36%	0.55x
Top 1%	0.46%	1.00%	0.46x
Cashed	20.70%	21.20%	0.98x

The read. The pool looked like the field: about the same median score (133.9 vs 131.9) and the same cash rate. It had more lineups at the very top (1.65x the field’s rate of beating the winner) but fewer in the top 1% overall (0.46x).

4. What would have worked in this contest

150 entries drawn from the pool, sorted by each metric and cut to each size (200 random draws of 150 from the cut; “Top 150” is one fixed set). The highlighted cell is the best in each table.

Share of the 150 in the top 1% (field: 1.00%)

Sort pool by	Top 150	Top 500	Top 1,000	Top 2,500	All 4,994
Top 1%	0.00%	0.55%	0.80%	0.70%	0.48%
Win %	0.00%	0.41%	0.50%	0.54%	0.49%
Top 5%	0.00%	0.62%	0.66%	0.58%	0.43%
Projection	0.00%	0.39%	0.24%	0.46%	0.50%

Chance the 150 held at least one top-1% lineup

Sort pool by	Top 150	Top 500	Top 1,000	Top 2,500	All 4,994
Top 1%	0%	62%	69%	62%	51%
Win %	0%	52%	55%	57%	50%
Top 5%	0%	64%	64%	56%	45%
Projection	0%	50%	29%	52%	52%

Share of the 150 that cashed (field: 21.2%)

Sort pool by	Top 150	Top 500	Top 1,000	Top 2,500	All 4,994
Top 1%	9.3%	14.8%	19.6%	22.3%	20.9%
Win %	14.0%	18.0%	19.6%	23.1%	20.9%
Top 5%	14.7%	15.9%	18.5%	21.3%	20.7%
Projection	14.7%	18.2%	20.9%	21.1%	20.8%

The read. Taking the top 150 by any metric put zero lineups in the top 1% and cashed only 9–15% (field: 21%). Widening the cut to the top 1,000–2,500 before drawing 150 is where every metric did best, with Top 1% at 1,000 highest. On this slate the sort order mattered less than not over-tightening the pool.

5. Where the filtered pool differed from the field

The best cut from section 4 (top 1,000 by Top 1%): how often each player appeared in it against how often the field played him. Hit = beat the field’s average pace of 2.64 pts per $1k.

Pool was heavier than the field

Player	Pos	Team	Salary	Pool	Field own	Diff	DK pts	Pts/$1k
Myles Mitchell	RB	NDSU	$5,700	79.3%	40.0%	+39.3	11.8	2.07	Bust
Nathan Hayes	QB	NDSU	$8,500	47.2%	16.1%	+31.1	13.8	1.62	Bust
Matt Coleman	WR	SSU	$4,500	36.7%	14.2%	+22.5	17.5	3.89	Hit
Lucky Sutton	RB	SDSU	$7,200	54.2%	31.8%	+22.4	0.0	0.00	Bust
Reis Kessel	WR	NDSU	$4,100	23.8%	7.2%	+16.6	3.6	0.88	Bust
Jackson Williams	WR	NDSU	$4,900	28.1%	12.3%	+15.8	29.4	6.00	Hit
Josiah Freeman	WR	FRES	$5,400	30.9%	17.7%	+13.2	21.5	3.98	Hit
Rodney Gallagher III	WR	ARIZ	$4,000	36.4%	24.1%	+12.3	5.3	1.32	Bust

Pool was lighter than the field

Player	Pos	Team	Salary	Pool	Field own	Diff	DK pts	Pts/$1k
Luke Weaver	QB	SJSU	$7,200	8.3%	44.9%	-36.6	8.9	1.23	Bust
Cooper Hoch	WR	SJSU	$6,900	2.8%	20.5%	-17.7	4.3	0.62	Bust
Fame Ijeboi	RB	PUR	$7,500	21.6%	39.2%	-17.6	16.7	2.23	Bust
George Pettaway	RB	JMU	$5,800	14.6%	31.1%	-16.5	8.9	1.53	Bust
Jerry McClure	WR	SJSU	$4,500	0.3%	16.6%	-16.3	4.8	1.07	Bust
Carson Clark	WR	SJSU	$6,400	29.8%	44.4%	-14.6	13.7	2.14	Bust
Ryan Browne	QB	PUR	$6,800	0.6%	14.6%	-14.0	29.0	4.27	Hit
Wayne Knight	RB	UCLA	$8,100	22.9%	33.0%	-10.1	38.0	4.69	Hit

By position

Pos	Pool: players per lineup	Field	Pool: avg pts per player	Field
QB	1.91	1.88	26.2	24.8
RB	3.06	2.86	11.4	13.0
WR	3.03	3.23	15.9	14.8

The read. Of the pool’s eight biggest overweights, 3 hit; of its eight biggest underweights, 2 hit.