Bristol, 19 September. Before the race the sheet was simulated 50,000 times and all 100 entries were given a chance of reaching the top 40. Here is what the race did with that, who advanced, and what their lineups had in common.
| What was checked | Result | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking the entries | the 40 lineups the sims liked most produced 24.0 advancers; the 40 they liked least, 12.0 | a blind guess gives 16 |
| Separating movers from the rest | 0.68 | 1.00 perfect, 0.50 a coin flip |
| Driver scores | correlation 0.63, average miss 17.9 pts | ranking beat the level |
| Driver ranges | 77% inside their own 10-90% range | about 80% is the target |
| The bar to advance | predicted 306, actual 296.75 | the 43th percentile of the simulated bars |
| Winning score | predicted 405, actual 363.5 | the top end ran cool |
| Field ownership | correlation 0.92, average miss 7.0 points | light on the drivers we wanted leverage on |
The simulations ranked the field usefully and called the bar almost exactly. What they cannot do is separate lineups that are genuinely close: the best entry in this contest was given a 49% chance and the worst 18%. In a 100-entry contest where 40 advance, most of the result is the race.
38 entries cleared 296.75 points outright. Another 9 finished on exactly that number for the 2 places left, which DraftKings settles with a tiebreaker after the fact. Everywhere in this report those 9 are counted as 22.2% of an advancer each, so all the counts add to exactly 40.
| Entry | Points | Chance of the place |
|---|---|---|
| CoolEditPros (1/4) | 296.75 | 22.2% |
| acs204 (2/2) | 296.75 | 22.2% |
| caid (1/4) | 296.75 | 22.2% |
| dschryer | 296.75 | 22.2% |
| jnoble777 (2/2) | 296.75 | 22.2% |
| kgdobby (3/3) | 296.75 | 22.2% |
| kingappraiser | 296.75 | 22.2% |
| scottv84 (1/2) | 296.75 | 22.2% |
| zapple2 (1/2) | 296.75 | 22.2% |
All nine played the same six drivers: Larson, Blaney, Gibbs, Zane Smith, Stenhouse, Herbst. The sims rated that lineup 48.8%, third best in the contest. It finished two points short of clearing.
Each lineup's ownership is the geometric mean of its six drivers' field ownership, the same summary the field simulations use. A lineup of six 40% drivers scores 40%; one 5% driver pulls it down far more than a plain average would.
| Lineup ownership (geometric mean) | Entries | Advanced | Rate | Avg points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| under 25% | 16 | 4.0 | 25% | 251 |
| 25-35% | 15 | 6.0 | 40% | 293 |
| 35-45% | 36 | 16.0 | 44% | 283 |
| 45% and up | 33 | 14.0 | 42% | 283 |
Lineups under 25% ownership advanced at 25%. Above that line it was flat: 40%, 44% and 42% from least to most owned. Being contrarian was a cost here rather than an edge, because the two biggest scores on the board belonged to popular drivers, Ty Gibbs at 44% owned and Josh Berry at 62%.
Click any column heading to sort.
| Driver | Salary | Projected own | Actual own | Entries | Advance rate | Simulated | Scored | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | $11,500 | 82% | 89% | 89 | 42% | 95.5 | 67.55 | -28.0 |
| Zane Smith | $5,700 | 64% | 72% | 72 | 39% | 28.7 | 21.00 | -7.7 |
| Josh Berry | $6,900 | 74% | 62% | 62 | 53% | 33.3 | 75.25 | +41.9 |
| Ryan Blaney | $11,200 | 45% | 55% | 55 | 33% | 68.7 | 78.35 | +9.7 |
| Chase Briscoe | $9,900 | 23% | 45% | 45 | 31% | 58.0 | 16.70 | -41.3 |
| Ty Gibbs | $10,400 | 30% | 44% | 44 | 68% | 66.8 | 109.85 | +43.0 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $5,500 | 24% | 43% | 43 | 40% | 22.7 | 13.00 | -9.7 |
| Riley Herbst | $5,200 | 25% | 39% | 39 | 23% | 23.2 | 7.00 | -16.2 |
| Noah Gragson | $6,100 | 19% | 20% | 20 | 60% | 25.3 | 47.00 | +21.7 |
| Denny Hamlin | $11,000 | 24% | 17% | 17 | 18% | 63.7 | 37.30 | -26.4 |
| Christopher Bell | $10,700 | 15% | 14% | 14 | 14% | 59.4 | 59.50 | +0.1 |
| Tyler Reddick | $8,500 | 27% | 14% | 14 | 50% | 38.3 | 29.70 | -8.6 |
| Chase Elliott | $8,700 | 26% | 14% | 14 | 21% | 45.0 | 23.00 | -22.0 |
| Ryan Preece | $7,000 | 17% | 12% | 12 | 33% | 33.0 | 45.40 | +12.4 |
| Ty Dillon | $4,900 | 6% | 10% | 10 | 40% | 19.2 | 2.00 | -17.2 |
| Todd Gilliland | $5,400 | 6% | 8% | 8 | 25% | 18.3 | 29.00 | +10.7 |
| Josh Bilicki | $4,500 | 1% | 8% | 8 | 62% | 13.4 | 4.00 | -9.4 |
| Daniel Suárez | $6,700 | 23% | 5% | 5 | 40% | 27.6 | 43.00 | +15.4 |
| Chris Buescher | $8,300 | 18% | 5% | 5 | 40% | 37.3 | 42.25 | +4.9 |
| Bubba Wallace | $7,500 | 7% | 4% | 4 | 50% | 35.6 | 49.90 | +14.3 |
| Michael McDowell | $6,400 | 3% | 4% | 4 | 50% | 23.7 | 21.00 | -2.7 |
| Alex Bowman | $7,300 | 6% | 4% | 4 | 0% | 21.9 | -21.65 | -43.6 |
| Joey Logano | $9,500 | 5% | 2% | 2 | 100% | 36.4 | 88.60 | +52.2 |
| Carson Hocevar | $7,900 | 12% | 2% | 2 | 100% | 35.4 | 74.35 | +38.9 |
| Brad Keselowski | $8,100 | 5% | 2% | 2 | 0% | 31.7 | 24.45 | -7.2 |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | $6,500 | 1% | 1% | 1 | 0% | 19.9 | 25.00 | +5.1 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $6,200 | 3% | 1% | 1 | 0% | 21.1 | 16.45 | -4.7 |
| Connor Zilisch | $5,900 | 0% | 1% | 1 | 0% | 12.4 | 12.15 | -0.2 |
| John H. Nemechek | $5,600 | 3% | 1% | 1 | 0% | 19.5 | 11.00 | -8.5 |
| Cole Custer | $5,100 | 0% | 1% | 1 | 0% | 6.5 | 7.00 | +0.5 |
| Erik Jones | $6,300 | 1% | 1% | 1 | 0% | 22.7 | -8.55 | -31.3 |
The ownership projection had the right shape, correlation 0.92, but ran light on exactly the drivers the leverage was built around: Briscoe, Stenhouse, Gibbs and Herbst all drew far more of the field than projected. Against the simulations, drivers correlated 0.63 with an average miss of 17.9 points, and 77% finished inside their own 10-90% range. The errors show no pattern by price or ownership, which is what one race of noise looks like rather than a bias to correct.
57 of the 100 entries were copies of a lineup somebody else also played. The copies cut both ways on the same night: the most-entered build advanced all ten of its copies, another build went nought for four, and the nine-copy build landed exactly on the cut line. Highlighted rows are builds where one entrant played the same six more than once.
| Copies | Points | Result | Pre-race odds | Ownership | Lineup | Entered by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 303.35 | advanced | 48.8% | 56.9% | Kyle Larson, Ty Gibbs, Chase Briscoe, Josh Berry, Zane Smith, Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 99whammer99, brknets23, jnmcabee, jnoble777, mjwheeler3833, mrgoodseats, Nitsuj10, Thechamp1995, vishy2773, zapple2 |
| 9 | 296.75 | tiebreak | 48.9% | 54.4% | Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Ty Gibbs, Zane Smith, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Riley Herbst | acs204, caid, CoolEditPros, dschryer, jnoble777, kgdobby, kingappraiser, scottv84, zapple2 |
| 4 | 247.00 | out | 42.0% | 46.2% | Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe, Josh Berry, Zane Smith, Riley Herbst | Kennyw1732, LeVerticalDFS, scottv84, swayzeehood |
| 4 | 246.40 | out | 42.2% | 45.0% | Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, Zane Smith, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Riley Herbst | LeVerticalDFS, mikeoheir20, muskrat2, vishy2773 |
| 4 | 235.60 | out | 37.1% | 44.1% | Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe, Josh Berry, Zane Smith, Riley Herbst | caid, falkarelli, MattK_66, mbhabes |
| 3 | 342.00 | advanced | 43.5% | 40.1% | Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Ty Gibbs, Josh Berry, Riley Herbst, Josh Bilicki | moklovin ×3 |
| 3 | 318.85 | advanced | 34.1% | 42.8% | Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, Josh Berry, Noah Gragson, Zane Smith | Fantassin, Nitsuj10, paulrobert1989 |
| 3 | 278.15 | out | 37.6% | 48.6% | Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Josh Berry, Zane Smith, Ricky Stenhouse Jr | Orochi, Rallycap, Str8Luck |
| 3 | 237.60 | out | 41.7% | 48.1% | Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, Noah Gragson, Zane Smith, Riley Herbst | acs204, maxwell52361, wdrzich |
| 2 | 348.00 | advanced | 43.5% | 40.8% | Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Ty Gibbs, Josh Berry, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Josh Bilicki | moklovin ×2 |
| 2 | 325.75 | advanced | 46.8% | 38.2% | Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Ty Gibbs, Noah Gragson, Zane Smith, Ty Dillon | MattK_66, maxwell52361 |
| 2 | 262.85 | out | 39.9% | 44.6% | Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, Josh Berry, Zane Smith, Josh Bilicki | CoolEditPros, hixx |
| 2 | 260.10 | out | 35.2% | 31.6% | Kyle Larson, Chase Briscoe, Tyler Reddick, Bubba Wallace, Josh Berry, Zane Smith | gburn4, MattK_66 |
| 2 | 252.85 | out | 40.7% | 42.5% | Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, Josh Berry, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Ty Dillon | EvilSurge, trun |
| 2 | 248.90 | out | 38.8% | 38.0% | Kyle Larson, Chase Briscoe, Chase Elliott, Ryan Preece, Josh Berry, Zane Smith | gwashko1, MattK_66 |
| 2 | 243.60 | out | 41.7% | 48.9% | Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, Noah Gragson, Zane Smith, Ricky Stenhouse Jr | caid, DontKneal |
Playing one build many times is the highest-variance choice available in this format: those entries share a single outcome, so they sweep together or they die together. Both happened here.
| Played Ty Gibbs | Entries | Advanced | Rate | Avg points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 56 | 10.0 | 18% | 258 |
| yes | 44 | 30.0 | 68% | 307 |
| Played Josh Berry | Entries | Advanced | Rate | Avg points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 38 | 7.0 | 18% | 266 |
| yes | 62 | 33.0 | 53% | 288 |
Missing either was close to fatal and missing both was fatal. Of the 38 entries that cleared outright, this is what they looked like:
| Build | Entries | Avg points | Avg ownership | Avg drivers under 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gibbs, no Larson | 2 | 312 | 32.8% | 0.0 |
| Larson and Gibbs | 26 | 320 | 45.5% | 0.5 |
| Larson, no Gibbs | 9 | 322 | 33.4% | 0.9 |
| neither | 1 | 342 | 12.3% | 2.0 |
The relationship is real but loose: Spearman 0.30 between the pre-race number and the finishing score. The clearest way to read the model's value is the top and bottom of its own ranking, in the first table above.
| Entry | Points | Pre-race | Result | Lineup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ckk-244ayk (2/2) | 341.70 | 21.2% | advanced | Christopher Bell, Joey Logano, Chase Elliott, Carson Hocevar, Josh Berry, Zane Smith |
| missouristatefan | 298.10 | 22.2% | advanced | Kyle Larson, Chase Briscoe, Joey Logano, Josh Berry, Michael McDowell, Todd Gilliland |
| giffenbone | 310.85 | 29.9% | advanced | Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, Josh Berry, Noah Gragson, Ricky Stenhouse Jr |
| Stingerpat (1/2) | 363.50 | 30.4% | advanced | Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Carson Hocevar, Josh Berry, Michael McDowell, Noah Gragson |
| PrinceAden | 299.35 | 33.6% | advanced | Kyle Larson, Ty Gibbs, Tyler Reddick, Chris Buescher, Zane Smith, Todd Gilliland |
| nyadam240 (1/5) | 318.50 | 33.8% | advanced | Denny Hamlin, Ty Gibbs, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Preece, Josh Berry, Zane Smith |
| Nitsuj10 (1/2) | 318.85 | 34.1% | advanced | Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, Josh Berry, Noah Gragson, Zane Smith |
| paulrobert1989 | 318.85 | 34.1% | advanced | Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, Josh Berry, Noah Gragson, Zane Smith |
| Entry | Points | Pre-race | Result | Lineup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kenu0878 | 273.50 | 49.0% | out | Kyle Larson, Ty Gibbs, Chase Briscoe, Ryan Preece, Zane Smith, Ricky Stenhouse Jr |
| Fantassin (1/3) | 289.70 | 47.7% | out | Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Ty Gibbs, Noah Gragson, Zane Smith, Riley Herbst |
| muskrat2 (2/2) | 255.70 | 46.1% | out | Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Ty Gibbs, Zane Smith, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Riley Herbst |
| Gassy999 | 289.50 | 44.8% | out | Kyle Larson, Ty Gibbs, Chase Briscoe, Ryan Preece, Zane Smith, Todd Gilliland |
| itsdougtastic | 240.20 | 43.3% | out | Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Zane Smith, Todd Gilliland, Riley Herbst |
| muskrat2 (1/2) | 246.40 | 42.3% | out | Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, Zane Smith, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Riley Herbst |
| kgdobby (2/3) | 216.80 | 42.3% | out | Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe, Josh Berry, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Riley Herbst |
| mikeoheir20 | 246.40 | 42.2% | out | Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, Zane Smith, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Riley Herbst |
| Player | Entries | Expected through | Actually through | Difference | Best score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| moklovin | 5 | 2.18 | 5.00 | +2.82 | 348.0 |
| nyadam240 | 5 | 1.71 | 2.00 | +0.29 | 318.5 |
| Fantassin | 3 | 1.23 | 2.00 | +0.77 | 348.8 |
| Nitsuj10 | 2 | 0.83 | 2.00 | +1.17 | 318.8 |
| CoolEditPros | 4 | 1.75 | 1.22 | -0.53 | 298.9 |
| caid | 4 | 1.66 | 1.22 | -0.44 | 306.5 |
| kgdobby | 3 | 1.40 | 1.22 | -0.18 | 297.3 |
| zapple2 | 2 | 0.98 | 1.22 | +0.25 | 303.3 |
| jnoble777 | 2 | 0.97 | 1.22 | +0.25 | 303.3 |
| MattK_66 | 5 | 1.89 | 1.00 | -0.89 | 325.8 |
| LeVerticalDFS | 3 | 1.30 | 1.00 | -0.30 | 323.3 |
| mbhabes | 3 | 1.09 | 1.00 | -0.09 | 339.6 |
| vishy2773 | 2 | 0.91 | 1.00 | +0.09 | 303.3 |
| maxwell52361 | 2 | 0.88 | 1.00 | +0.11 | 325.8 |
| Jadams_27 | 2 | 0.78 | 1.00 | +0.22 | 318.3 |
| Stingerpat | 2 | 0.60 | 1.00 | +0.40 | 363.5 |
| 99whammer99 | 1 | 0.49 | 1.00 | +0.51 | 303.3 |
| mrgoodseats | 1 | 0.49 | 1.00 | +0.51 | 303.3 |
| brknets23 | 1 | 0.49 | 1.00 | +0.51 | 303.3 |
| jnmcabee | 1 | 0.49 | 1.00 | +0.51 | 303.3 |
| Thechamp1995 | 1 | 0.49 | 1.00 | +0.51 | 303.3 |
| mjwheeler3833 | 1 | 0.49 | 1.00 | +0.51 | 303.3 |
| ckk-244ayk | 2 | 0.43 | 1.00 | +0.56 | 341.7 |
| zhood14 | 1 | 0.40 | 1.00 | +0.60 | 361.3 |
| jlv041017 | 1 | 0.39 | 1.00 | +0.61 | 337.4 |
| fennell007 | 1 | 0.36 | 1.00 | +0.64 | 298.1 |
| robert73ferg | 1 | 0.34 | 1.00 | +0.66 | 335.1 |
| paulrobert1989 | 1 | 0.34 | 1.00 | +0.66 | 318.8 |
| PrinceAden | 1 | 0.34 | 1.00 | +0.66 | 299.3 |
| giffenbone | 1 | 0.30 | 1.00 | +0.70 | 310.8 |
| missouristatefan | 1 | 0.22 | 1.00 | +0.78 | 298.1 |
| scottv84 | 2 | 0.91 | 0.22 | -0.69 | 296.8 |
| acs204 | 2 | 0.90 | 0.22 | -0.68 | 296.8 |
| dschryer | 1 | 0.49 | 0.22 | -0.27 | 296.8 |
| kingappraiser | 1 | 0.49 | 0.22 | -0.27 | 296.8 |
| UltimateWin4 | 3 | 0.92 | 0.00 | -0.92 | 276.1 |
| muskrat2 | 2 | 0.88 | 0.00 | -0.88 | 255.7 |
| Kennyw1732 | 2 | 0.82 | 0.00 | -0.82 | 247.0 |
| kenu0878 | 1 | 0.49 | 0.00 | -0.49 | 273.5 |
| Gassy999 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.00 | -0.45 | 289.5 |
| itsdougtastic | 1 | 0.43 | 0.00 | -0.43 | 240.2 |
| mikeoheir20 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.00 | -0.42 | 246.4 |
| swayzeehood | 1 | 0.42 | 0.00 | -0.42 | 247.0 |
| wdrzich | 1 | 0.42 | 0.00 | -0.42 | 237.6 |
| DontKneal | 1 | 0.42 | 0.00 | -0.42 | 243.6 |
| trun | 1 | 0.41 | 0.00 | -0.41 | 252.8 |
| EvilSurge | 1 | 0.41 | 0.00 | -0.41 | 252.8 |
| hixx | 1 | 0.40 | 0.00 | -0.40 | 262.8 |
| Tailgate81 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.00 | -0.39 | 273.2 |
| gwashko1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.00 | -0.39 | 248.9 |
| Rallycap | 1 | 0.38 | 0.00 | -0.38 | 278.1 |
| Str8Luck | 1 | 0.38 | 0.00 | -0.38 | 278.1 |
| Orochi | 1 | 0.38 | 0.00 | -0.38 | 278.1 |
| niemeyerj18 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.00 | -0.37 | 268.8 |
| falkarelli | 1 | 0.37 | 0.00 | -0.37 | 235.6 |
| Mghtank | 1 | 0.36 | 0.00 | -0.36 | 255.0 |
| gburn4 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.00 | -0.35 | 260.1 |
| MayorOfDetroit | 1 | 0.32 | 0.00 | -0.32 | 264.6 |
| NoWay_KemoSabi | 1 | 0.24 | 0.00 | -0.24 | 259.3 |
| gregr1224 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.00 | -0.22 | 233.2 |
Expected is the sum of that entrant's pre-race chances. Tied entries count as their share of the places left.