| Category | 1999 | 2004 | 2009 | 2014 (Pre) | 2014 (Post) | 2019 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | 27.5% | 37.9% | 29.5% |
|
36.4% | 36.2% | 37.5% |
| Party | 61.5% | 47.6% | 70.5% | 48.6% | 63.6% | 47.4% | 51.7% |
| Caste/Community | 7.7% | 9.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
| Something else | 3.2% | 5.4% |
|
|
|
|
0.9% |
| Local candidate |
|
|
|
29.1% |
|
|
|
| PM candidate |
|
|
|
20% |
|
16.4% | 9.9% |
| Others |
|
|
|
2.3% |
|
|
|
| Category | 2004 | 2014 (Pre) | 2014 (Post) | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-loyal / No particular party | 5.1% | 26.5% | 36.8% | 18% |
| Loyal / Traditional supporter | 94.9% | 73.5% | 63.2% | 82% |
| Category | 1999 | 2009 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Not attached to a party | 62.4% | 69.1% | 49.1% |
| Feels close to a party | 37.6% | 30.9% | 50.9% |
| Category | 2004 | 2009 | 2014 (Post) | 2019 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worsened | 18.1% | 12.7% | 21.6% | 15.3% | 18.4% |
| Same | 54.4% | 36.9% | 32.3% | 43.6% | 36.7% |
| Improved | 27.5% | 50.4% | 46.2% | 41.1% | 44.9% |
| Orientation | 2004 | 2009 | 2014 (Post) | 2019 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retrospective: Rewards Past Performance (% positive) | 27.5% | 50.4% | 46.2% | 41.1% | 44.9% |
| Prospective: Votes for a Better Tomorrow (% positive) | 67.8% | 68.9% |
|
|
|
Prospective finance item only exists in 2004 and 2009 — no later wave asks about expected future household finances.
Restricted to 2014 (Post-poll) and 2019 — the two waves with both a direct traditional-supporter item and raw microdata to build the joint distribution. 2024 is excluded here since the published report only gives marginal percentages for each question, not the joint Loyalty × Vote-Basis breakdown.
| Year | Party | Candidate | PM candidate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 (Post) | 67.8% | 32.2% |
|
| 2019 | 49% | 33.9% | 17.1% |
| Year | Party | Candidate | PM candidate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 (Post) | 58.2% | 41.8% |
|
| 2019 | 42.2% | 42.6% | 15.3% |
q27 (2004) and d1 (2009) are the identical
question, so this is a direct year-on-year comparison. Unweighted — no
weight variable exists in either .sav file, so treat this
as directionally indicative rather than an exact match to any published
(weighted) report table.
| Category | 2004 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|
| No, can’t run better | 74.5% | 55.2% |
| Yes, can run better | 7.8% | 14.4% |
| DK/Others | 17.7% | 30.4% |
Among 2014 post-poll voters who either backed the party they thought
would win, or said it made no difference and voted as they wanted (Q4
options 1 and 3 — Q4=2, “voted for a party likely to lose,” is dropped
per the original ask), this compares who they voted for
(q1a) against which party they themselves rated
best on five dimensions (q15a-q15e):
administration, religious sentiments, national security, leadership, and
freebies. q1a and q15a-q15e use
identical party coding, so the comparison is a direct value match — no
party-by-party breakdown is produced anywhere below; every output is
either a plain % congruent per domain or a 0-5 count score.
For reference only — the size of the two Q4 groups the congruence analysis above is built on. Q4=2 (“voted for a party likely to lose”) is excluded throughout, since it’s not part of what we’re comparing.
| Q4_Group | n | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| Voted for likely winner | 8728 | 49.1 |
| Made no difference / voted as wanted | 9031 | 50.9 |
| Domain | Pct_Congruent_Voted for likely winner | Pct_Congruent_Made no difference / voted as wanted | N_Voted for likely winner | N_Made no difference / voted as wanted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match_Admin | 82.4 | 84.3 | 7182 | 7222 |
| Match_Freebies | 71.6 | 67.3 | 5847 | 5506 |
| Match_Leadership | 81.4 | 83.3 | 6821 | 6695 |
| Match_Religious | 79.4 | 82.6 | 6601 | 6513 |
| Match_Security | 79.3 | 81.1 | 6669 | 6584 |
| Domain | Pct_Congruent | N |
|---|---|---|
| Match_Admin | 83.3 | 14404 |
| Match_Freebies | 69.5 | 11353 |
| Match_Leadership | 82.3 | 13516 |
| Match_Religious | 81.0 | 13114 |
| Match_Security | 80.2 | 13253 |
| Congruence_Score | n | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1928 | 13.0 |
| 1 | 903 | 6.1 |
| 2 | 1143 | 7.7 |
| 3 | 1310 | 8.8 |
| 4 | 2722 | 18.3 |
| 5 | 6853 | 46.1 |
##
## What Predicts Vote-Belief Congruence? (OLS, 0-5 Congruence Score)
## ========================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## ---------------------------
## Congruence Score (0-5)
## ------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Age -0.002*
## (0.001)
##
## GenderFemale 0.011
## (0.031)
##
## EducationBelow Primary -0.066
## (0.063)
##
## EducationPrimary/Middle fail -0.040
## (0.053)
##
## EducationMiddle/Matric fail -0.094*
## (0.053)
##
## EducationMatric -0.102**
## (0.051)
##
## EducationIntermediate -0.042
## (0.057)
##
## EducationGraduate -0.127**
## (0.063)
##
## EducationPost Graduate -0.353***
## (0.101)
##
## EducationProfessional/Research -0.167
## (0.147)
##
## Caste_GroupST 0.080
## (0.061)
##
## Caste_GroupOBC 0.024
## (0.041)
##
## Caste_GroupGeneral -0.029
## (0.044)
##
## LocalityTown 0.003
## (0.047)
##
## LocalityCity 0.003
## (0.058)
##
## LocalityMetropolitan -0.286***
## (0.063)
##
## Q4_GroupMade no difference / voted as wanted -0.012
## (0.030)
##
## Constant 3.691***
## (0.074)
##
## ------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Observations 14,651
## R2 0.004
## Adjusted R2 0.003
## Residual Std. Error 1.796 (df = 14633)
## F Statistic 3.275*** (df = 17; 14633)
## ========================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01The aggregate 0-5 score is convenient but hides whether congruence
behaves the same way across all five dimensions, or whether some
(e.g. religious sentiments, freebies) show a lot more demographic-driven
variation than others (e.g. security, leadership). This runs the same
demographic predictors separately against each Match_
outcome (logistic regression, since each is binary) so the five domains
can be compared side by side in one table.
##
## What Predicts Congruence, by Domain (Logistic Regression)
## =======================================================================================================
## Dependent variable:
## ----------------------------------------------------------
## Administration Religious Security Leadership Freebies
## (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
## -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Age -0.001 -0.003 -0.001 -0.001 -0.004**
## (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002)
##
## GenderFemale 0.090* 0.106** 0.115** 0.082* 0.069
## (0.047) (0.047) (0.046) (0.048) (0.043)
##
## EducationBelow Primary 0.050 -0.139 -0.013 0.061 0.030
## (0.100) (0.099) (0.098) (0.103) (0.094)
##
## EducationPrimary/Middle fail 0.131 -0.069 0.008 0.028 -0.072
## (0.084) (0.083) (0.082) (0.085) (0.077)
##
## EducationMiddle/Matric fail -0.106 -0.243*** -0.071 -0.128 -0.272***
## (0.081) (0.081) (0.081) (0.082) (0.074)
##
## EducationMatric -0.168** -0.261*** -0.233*** -0.165** -0.321***
## (0.078) (0.078) (0.076) (0.079) (0.072)
##
## EducationIntermediate -0.108 -0.198** -0.179** -0.166* -0.357***
## (0.086) (0.086) (0.084) (0.086) (0.079)
##
## EducationGraduate -0.220** -0.302*** -0.213** -0.211** -0.423***
## (0.094) (0.095) (0.092) (0.095) (0.087)
##
## EducationPost Graduate -0.394*** -0.660*** -0.448*** -0.416*** -0.555***
## (0.143) (0.140) (0.140) (0.145) (0.137)
##
## EducationProfessional/Research -0.258 -0.665*** -0.220 -0.472** -0.490**
## (0.215) (0.195) (0.214) (0.202) (0.194)
##
## Caste_GroupST 0.338*** 0.117 0.222** 0.207** 0.282***
## (0.101) (0.095) (0.098) (0.100) (0.090)
##
## Caste_GroupOBC -0.024 -0.060 -0.104* -0.034 0.035
## (0.061) (0.061) (0.060) (0.062) (0.056)
##
## Caste_GroupGeneral 0.056 0.103 0.029 -0.014 -0.029
## (0.067) (0.068) (0.066) (0.068) (0.061)
##
## LocalityTown -0.143** 0.003 0.128* -0.017 0.133**
## (0.068) (0.071) (0.070) (0.071) (0.067)
##
## LocalityCity 0.262*** 0.222** 0.270*** 0.277*** 0.010
## (0.094) (0.092) (0.090) (0.095) (0.082)
##
## LocalityMetropolitan 0.020 -0.140 0.087 -0.059 -0.579***
## (0.097) (0.094) (0.095) (0.093) (0.088)
##
## Q4_GroupMade no difference / voted as wanted 0.156*** 0.213*** 0.127*** 0.138*** -0.186***
## (0.045) (0.045) (0.044) (0.046) (0.042)
##
## Constant 1.591*** 1.568*** 1.412*** 1.560*** 1.250***
## (0.113) (0.113) (0.111) (0.115) (0.105)
##
## -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## Observations 14,215 12,971 13,087 13,358 11,215
## Log Likelihood -6,355.789 -6,274.614 -6,471.759 -6,200.027 -6,806.342
## Akaike Inf. Crit. 12,747.580 12,585.230 12,979.520 12,436.060 13,648.680
## =======================================================================================================
## Note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01