The U.S. labor Market is shifting in a multitude of directions, shaped by changes in population, employer hiring demand, and artificial intelligence integration.

By examining data related to these three areas, we can understand how workforce participation and employment opportunities could change in the future.

The rate at which population grows can affect the labor market because the number of people entering the workforce and the number of people reaching retirement can change over time.

These details heavily influence the number of people available to participate in the workforce and how employers may need to respond in the future.

When recording how many births occur in a given year, it is also important to consider fertility rate.

The fertility rate measures the number of births per 1,000 women ages 15-44, which makes it easier to compare birth trends throughout the years.

CDC data shows an overall decline in U.S. fertility rate between 2007 and 2020.

Source: CDC WONDER Natality Data, 2007-2024

Birth and population trends can tell us how the population is changing, but it doesn’t directly tell us how many people are actually working or looking for work.

The U.S. labor force grew 8.7% from 2015 to 2025. BLS projects a small increase of 3.2% from 2025 to 2035.

This means the labor force is still growing, however, at a slower rate.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Although there’s still a small increase in the labor force, it doesn’t automatically mean a worker shortage.

It also depends on how many people employers are looking to hire.

Looking at hiring trends can help us see how strong employer demand is.

BLS data shows that employer demand has gone down since job openings peaked in 2022.

The annual average job openings rate fell from 6.8% in 2022 to 4.3% in 2025.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, JOLTS

In recent years, AI has become more integrated into everyday life and the workplace.

As AI becomes more advanced, it may change the kinds of jobs employers need and the skills workers are expected to have.

Some tech jobs are expected to grow as AI becomes more common.

BLS projects growth in jobs such as data science, software developers, and actuaries.

We can use simple linear regression to see how the fertility rate changed over time.

\[\hat{y} = b_0 + b_1x\]

In this model, \(x\) represents the year and \(\hat{y}\) represents the predicted fertility rate.

fertility_model <- lm(Fertility.Rate ~ Year, data = fertility_data)
summary(fertility_model)

The regression gives a slope of about -0.83.

\[b_1 \approx -0.83\]

This means that from 2007 to 2020, the fertility rate decreased by about 0.83 births per 1,000 women each year on average.

The negative slope shows an overall downward trend.

The data suggests that the U.S. labor market is changing in two major ways.

The labor force is expected to grow more slowly, while employer demand for workers is also changing.

Lower fertility may contribute to slower workforce growth over time, while AI may change which jobs and skills employers need most.

Overall, the future labor market may have slower workforce growth and a different mix of job opportunities.