The session in four numbers
This board ranks each car by its long-run pace, corrected for tire wear and for when in the session it ran. Tires lost time every lap and the track slowed as practice went on. A car that did its long run late on old tires would look slow on a raw 10-lap best without being slow.
The board
The practice rank blends two measures that each predicted Cup finishes: pace corrected for tire age and session time, and the best 10 green laps in a row. The dot is the gap to the fastest car at equal tire age and session time. The whisker is roughly ±2 standard errors, so overlapping whiskers are too close to call. Click any column to sort.
Where practice disagrees with the market
Price rank is DK salary order. These lists come from the numbers on the board and are not hand-picked.
Speed against grid and odds
Practice rank vs starting spot
Cars below the diagonal were faster in practice than where they start, which is place-differential upside on DK. Above the line, the grid flatters them.
Practice rank vs Kalshi win price
Mid-prices from Kalshi's winner market, normalized to 100%. A car high on this chart but low in practice is being priced on reputation.
Run traces
Lap times by tire age, with the session-time drift removed, so every lap is compared at the same track conditions. Grey is the rest of the field. Pick up to three drivers.
How the track changed
Field lap time through the 48-minute session, at a fixed tire age of 10 laps, measured from the first minute. Early laps were quick: low fuel and qualifying runs. The track then slowed as it heated up.
Team pace
Average corrected gap per team, with each car shown as a tick. The equipment gap at the front is small. Past the top three teams it widens quickly.
What practice told us
Christopher Bell was the class of the session. He was first on corrected pace and first over 10 laps, across 54 laps with a 36-lap run. He was only 12th on a single lap, the pattern of a car set up for the race rather than a qualifying lap. He starts fourth, carries the top salary at $11,000, and Kalshi has him at 16%, level with Logano.
Logano and Larson were right with him. Logano, on the pole, was second by both measures, 31 thousandths back. Larson was third by both, 61 thousandths back, and 25th on a single lap. Those are three top cars within about six hundredths at equal tire age, which is too close to separate.
William Byron is the biggest gap between speed and starting spot among the top cars. He was fourth on corrected pace and eighth over 10 laps, across 53 laps, and he starts 24th. At $9,000 he is ninth by price, and Kalshi has him at about 2%. That market is thin, with roughly 2,500 contracts traded against 36,000–56,000 on each of the top five. If practice is right, he is the place-differential car of the race.
Carson Hocevar was fifth, sixth and fifth on the two measures, on 59 laps. He starts sixth and is priced 15th at $7,400.
Tyler Reddick is the expensive car practice did not back. He is seventh by price at $9,500 and 17th on the practice rank, and fifth on a single lap. Corrected pace had him 22nd. His longest run was 18 laps, one of the shortest among the front-running teams. Erik Jones ($6,600, 20th by price) was 31st, and his longest run was 12 laps. Austin Dillon ($6,300) was 34th.
Denny Hamlin ran only 40 laps and was 30th on a single lap. Over a run he was seventh on corrected pace and 10th over 10 laps. Practice says top-10 speed, not a car to beat. The market has him fourth at 9%.
Two cheap cars start behind their speed. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. starts 36th at $5,400 and was 19th on the practice rank. Todd Gilliland starts 34th at $5,300 and was 22nd. The two measures disagree on Stenhouse, 15th over 10 laps but 28th corrected, and his longest run was 15 laps. Treat him as the lighter read of the two.
One-lap cars: Connor Zilisch was fourth on a single lap and 27th on the practice rank. Josh Berry was third on one lap and 13th over a run. The measures split on two cars: John Hunter Nemechek was 15th corrected and 29th over 10 laps, and Daniel Suárez was 31st corrected and 19th over 10 laps.
Cody Ware's longest run was 11 laps and Ty Dillon's was 11. There is too little there to read a long run from.