Opponent Advance Report
USC Trojans
2026 · 47-16 · vs D-I 47-16
Record
47-16
Conference — · vs D-I 47-16
ESPN schedule
Runs / Game
7.06
Last 10: 8.10
Season
Runs Allowed / Game
3.73
Last 10: 3.70
Season
Run Diff / Game
+3.33
One-run games 6-6
Season
Recent Record
6-4
Last 10 completed games
Season
Opponent Identity
Five things to know
1
STRONG RUN PREVENTION
Runs allowed ranks in the 88th percentile nationally (20 of 163 D-I
teams).
2
COMPLETE TEAM PROFILE
Run differential per game ranks in the 94th percentile nationally (11 of
163 D-I teams).
3
POWER THREAT
2.05 home runs per game across the last 20 games.
4
FREE-BASE PRESSURE
6.2 walks plus hit-by-pitches per game across the last 20 games.
5
ACTIVE RUNNING GAME
1.15 stolen bases per game across the last 20 games.
Rotation
Projected starter
| Player | Last start | Slot history | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Govel | May 23 | G2×4 · Single×1 | POSSIBLE |
| Mason Edwards | May 22 | G1×3 · Single×1 | POSSIBLE |
| Grant - P Govel | Jun 01 | G2 (2-gm)×1 · Single×1 | POSSIBLE |
Ranked by recency-weighted starts in the same series slot as the next
scheduled game, then adjusted for whether there is enough rest to start
it. Tiers, not probabilities - this data does not support a percentage.
Recent Form
Season vs now
| Window | Record | Win % | R/G | RA/G | RD/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 47-16 | 73.4% | 7.06 | 3.73 | +3.33 |
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 60.0% | 8.10 | 3.70 | +4.40 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 80.0% | 11.80 | 3.80 | +8.00 |
| vs Division I | 47-16 | 73.4% | 7.06 | 3.73 | +3.33 |
Series plan
Pitcher Plan
Where their offense is strong
- Power is real: 2.05 HR per game across the last 20 games.
- They reach without the ball in play: 6.2 BB + HBP per game across the last 20 games.
- Active running game: 1.15 stolen bases per game.
How we mitigate it
- With traffic on, prioritize damage prevention over the punchout. Miss down, not over the middle.
- Win strike one. Their on-base profile is built on counts, not on barrels.
- Vary looks and hold times with the identified runners on base; get the catcher a chance.
Top three hitters
Not enough qualified hitters in the window to rank.
Hitter Plan
What their pitching does well
- Run prevention grades in the 88th percentile nationally.
- The staff misses bats: 9.2 K/9 across the last 20 games.
- They limit walks: 2.9 BB/9 across the last 20 games.
Where we can attack
- 6 relief arms are carrying elevated recent workload.
How we take advantage
- Scoring chances will be scarce. Do not give away outs once we create traffic.
- Shrink the zone with two strikes and make them throw a competitive finish pitch.
- Make the starter work. Getting into the middle-relief portion of this staff early is worth a plan of its own.
Top three pitchers
Sax - P Matson — 0.00 ERA · 9.0 K/9 · 1.8 BB/9
Chase - P Herrell — 0.00 ERA · 5.1 K/9 · 1.7 BB/9
Mason Edwards — 0.39 ERA · 16.0 K/9 · 3.1 BB/9
Recent results
| Date | Opponent | Site | Slot | Result | Score | D-I |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 02 | TA&M | A | G2 (2-gm) | W | 7-1 | Yes |
| Jun 01 | TA&M | N | G1 (2-gm) | W | 14-3 | Yes |
| May 31 | TXST | N | Single | W | 15-4 | Yes |
| May 30 | TXST | N | Single | L | 4-5 | Yes |
| May 30 | LAM | N | Single | W | 19-6 | Yes |
| May 23 | UCLA | N | Single | L | 5-7 | Yes |
| May 22 | MSU | N | Single | W | 7-0 | Yes |
| May 16 | ORE | A | G2 | L | 3-4 | Yes |
| May 16 | ORE | A | G3 | L | 5-6 | Yes |
| May 15 | ORE | A | G1 | W | 2-1 | Yes |
Lineup Preparation
Expected lineup and hitter profile
Read this first. Two different windows appear on this
page and they are never mixed in the same column. The season
line is the official full-season total. The recent window
is built from the 20 most recent games that returned a box score. Season
rate stats come from stats.ncaa.org and are recomputed from the counting
stats.
Expected lineup
| Spot | Player | Pos | Starts (last 5) | Last start | Next most used |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abbrie Covarrubias | 2B | 5 | Jun 01 | — |
| 2 | Adrian Lopez | 1B | 5 | Jun 01 | — |
| 3 | Augie Lopez | DH | 5 | Jun 01 | — |
| 4 | Kevin Takeuchi | 3B | 5 | Jun 01 | — |
| 5 | Isaac Cadena | C | 5 | Jun 01 | — |
| 6 | Jack Basseer | RF | 5 | Jun 01 | — |
| 7 | Andrew Lamb | LF | 4 | Jun 01 | — |
| 8 | Dean Carpentier | SS | 5 | Jun 01 | — |
| 9 | Walter Urbon | CF | 5 | Jun 01 | — |
Built from the most recent five games with a published starting lineup.
The last column shows the next most frequent name in that spot, so an
unsettled lineup reads as unsettled instead of certain.
Season line
No hitters cleared the qualifying sample for a season line.
Recent window
| Player | Pos | G | AB | AVG | Reach% | HR | BB | K | RBI | R | Last game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Takeuchi | CF | 20 | 73 | .301 | 45.7% | 5 | 21 | 18 | 18 | 23 | Jun 01 |
| Isaac Cadena | C | 20 | 79 | .367 | 45.7% | 5 | 13 | 22 | 17 | 21 | Jun 01 |
| Jack Basseer | RF | 20 | 77 | .351 | 45.1% | 5 | 14 | 18 | 22 | 23 | Jun 01 |
| Walter Urbon | RF | 17 | 60 | .417 | 43.5% | 3 | 2 | 16 | 17 | 12 | Jun 01 |
| Andrew Lamb | PH | 20 | 65 | .354 | 41.7% | 5 | 7 | 18 | 20 | 12 | Jun 01 |
| Abbrie Covarrubias | 2B | 13 | 47 | .340 | 41.5% | 1 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 7 | Jun 01 |
| Dean Carpentier | LF | 17 | 61 | .295 | 36.8% | 1 | 7 | 14 | 9 | 12 | Jun 01 |
| Adrian Lopez | 1B | 20 | 87 | .299 | 35.8% | 8 | 8 | 14 | 19 | 27 | Jun 01 |
| Augie Lopez | DH | 20 | 84 | .274 | 35.8% | 6 | 11 | 24 | 21 | 20 | Jun 01 |
| Maximo Martinez | 3B | 14 | 46 | .217 | 28.0% | 1 | 4 | 16 | 6 | 7 | May 29 |
| Maddox Riske | SS | 12 | 24 | .208 | 26.9% | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | Jun 01 |
Source: ESPN game box scores, last 20 games. Reach% is
(H + BB) / (AB + BB) - it is not on-base percentage. ESPN game box
scores do not publish hit-by-pitch or sacrifice flies, so a true OBP
cannot be built from this window and is not shown here. Use the season
line above for OBP.
Limited sample
| Player | Pos | G | AB | H | HR | BB | K | Last game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Slaton | CF | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | May 30 |
| Richard Tejeda | C | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | May 30 |
| Logan Honma | 3B | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | May 30 |
| Will Stickney | LF | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | May 01 |
| Diego Velazquez | PH | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | May 15 |
| Hayden Woodson | PR | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | May 31 |
| Isaiah Ibarra | C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | May 31 |
Under 10 at-bats in the window. Shown as counting stats only - rate
stats on samples this size are noise, so they are not computed.
Staff Preparation
Rotation, workload and staff profile
Rotation projection
| Player | Starts | Slot history | Starts in this slot | Last start | Typical rest | Days out | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Govel | 5 | G2×4 · Single×1 | 0 | May 23 | 7 d | 15 | POSSIBLE |
| Mason Edwards | 4 | G1×3 · Single×1 | 0 | May 22 | 7 d | 16 | POSSIBLE |
| Grant - P Govel | 2 | G2 (2-gm)×1 · Single×1 | 0 | Jun 01 | 3 d | 6 | POSSIBLE |
| Diego Velazquez | 3 | G3×3 | 0 | May 16 | 6 d | 22 | UNLIKELY |
| Diego - P Velazquez | 1 | Single×1 | 0 | May 31 | — | 7 | UNLIKELY |
| Andrew - P Johnson | 1 | G1 (2-gm)×1 | 0 | May 31 | — | 7 | UNLIKELY |
Projecting for the next scheduled game. College staffs line up by series
slot, not by rest days, so slot history carries the most weight,
discounted by recency, then penalised if there is not enough rest. Every
input is printed above so the call can be overridden.
Starter workload
| Player | GS | Typical outing | Longest outing | Median pitches | Max pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Govel | 5 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 88 | 101 |
| Mason Edwards | 4 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 100 | 113 |
| Diego Velazquez | 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 49 | 62 |
| Grant - P Govel | 2 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 76 | 89 |
| Andrew - P Johnson | 1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 124 | 124 |
| Mason - P Edwards | 1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 85 | 85 |
| Diego - P Velazquez | 1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 73 | 73 |
| Chase Herrell | 1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 51 | 51 |
| Gavin Lauridsen | 1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 32 | 32 |
| Matthew Morrell | 1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 14 | 14 |
How deep each starter has actually gone. This is where the opening is:
if a starter’s typical outing ends around a known pitch count, the third
time through the order is when the plan changes. ESPN does not publish a
pitch count for every college game, so blanks here are missing data, not
zeros.
Pitcher usage — recent window
| Player | App | GS | IP | ERA | K | BB | K/9 | BB/9 | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Govel | 5 | 5 | 29.2 | 2.43 | 26 | 3 | 7.9 | 0.9 | May 23 |
| Mason Edwards | 4 | 4 | 23.0 | 0.39 | 41 | 8 | 16.0 | 3.1 | May 22 |
| Andrew Johnson | 8 | 0 | 21.2 | 1.25 | 25 | 5 | 10.4 | 2.1 | May 23 |
| Gavin Lauridsen | 6 | 1 | 14.1 | 3.77 | 11 | 3 | 6.9 | 1.9 | May 23 |
| Diego Velazquez | 4 | 3 | 13.2 | 3.29 | 12 | 1 | 7.9 | 0.7 | May 16 |
| Grant - P Govel | 2 | 2 | 9.2 | 3.72 | 10 | 4 | 9.3 | 3.7 | Jun 01 |
| Chase Herrell | 5 | 1 | 9.1 | 4.82 | 8 | 6 | 7.7 | 5.8 | May 22 |
| Andrew - P Johnson | 2 | 1 | 9.0 | 3.00 | 5 | 1 | 5.0 | 1.0 | May 31 |
| Adam Troy | 6 | 0 | 7.2 | 4.70 | 9 | 5 | 10.6 | 5.9 | May 23 |
| Sax Matson | 5 | 0 | 7.1 | 2.45 | 4 | 3 | 4.9 | 3.7 | May 16 |
| Ben Cushnie | 4 | 0 | 5.2 | 1.59 | 4 | 3 | 6.4 | 4.8 | May 22 |
| Chase - P Herrell | 2 | 0 | 5.1 | 0.00 | 3 | 1 | 5.1 | 1.7 | Jun 01 |
| Sax - P Matson | 3 | 0 | 5.0 | 0.00 | 5 | 1 | 9.0 | 1.8 | Jun 01 |
| Mason - P Edwards | 1 | 1 | 4.1 | 10.38 | 4 | 4 | 8.3 | 8.3 | May 30 |
| Diego - P Velazquez | 1 | 1 | 3.1 | 5.40 | 3 | 3 | 8.1 | 8.1 | May 31 |
| Rohan - P Kasanagottu | 2 | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00 | 5 | 0 | 16.9 | 0.0 | May 31 |
| Henry - P Chabot | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00 | 3 | 0 | 13.5 | 0.0 | May 31 |
| Ben - P Cushnie | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 4.5 | 0.0 | May 31 |
| Rohan Kasanagottu | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00 | 2 | 1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | May 07 |
| Adam - P Troy | 2 | 0 | 1.2 | 5.40 | 1 | 0 | 5.4 | 0.0 | Jun 01 |
| Henry Chabot | 3 | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00 | 3 | 3 | 20.2 | 20.2 | May 07 |
| Matthew Morrell | 1 | 1 | 0.2 | 13.50 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 13.5 | Apr 28 |
Source: ESPN game box scores, last 20 games. ERA, K/9 and BB/9 are
computed from innings actually recorded in this window - they are not
the season figures. Innings are summed in outs, so a total can never
come out as an impossible value like 4.3.
Season line
No rows available for this table with the current data.
Source: stats.ncaa.org season totals, 2026.
Bullpen workload — last 7 days
| Player | Last | Days rest | App (7d) | IP (7d) | Pitches (7d) | Back-to-back | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sax - P Matson | Jun 01 | 1 | 3 | 5.0 | 78 | 1 | HEAVY |
| Chase - P Herrell | Jun 01 | 1 | 2 | 5.1 | 71 | 0 | HEAVY |
| Adam - P Troy | Jun 01 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 29 | 0 | WATCH |
| Rohan - P Kasanagottu | May 31 | 2 | 2 | 2.2 | 33 | 1 | HEAVY |
| Henry - P Chabot | May 31 | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 30 | 1 | HEAVY |
| Ben - P Cushnie | May 31 | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 23 | 1 | HEAVY |
| Gavin - P Lauridsen | May 31 | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 19 | 0 | FRESH |
| Andrew - P Johnson | May 29 | 4 | 1 | 1.2 | 21 | 0 | FRESH |
| Adam Troy | May 23 | 10 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | FRESH |
| Andrew Johnson | May 23 | 10 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | FRESH |
| Gavin Lauridsen | May 23 | 10 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | FRESH |
| Ben Cushnie | May 22 | 11 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | FRESH |
Workload is measured against the last completed game, Jun 02.
Back-to-back days now count toward the HEAVY flag, since consecutive-day
usage constrains availability more than raw appearance totals do.
Pitcher splits
| Player | Split | App | IP | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Troy | At home | 3 | 3.0 | 3.00 | 12.0 | 6.0 |
| Adam Troy | In relief | 6 | 7.2 | 4.70 | 10.6 | 5.9 |
| Adam Troy | On the road | 3 | 4.2 | 5.79 | 9.6 | 5.8 |
| Adam Troy | vs Division I | 6 | 7.2 | 4.70 | 10.6 | 5.9 |
| Andrew - P Johnson | As starter | 1 | 7.1 | 3.68 | 4.9 | 1.2 |
| Andrew - P Johnson | At home | 2 | 9.0 | 3.00 | 5.0 | 1.0 |
| Andrew - P Johnson | In relief | 1 | 1.2 | 0.00 | 5.4 | 0.0 |
| Andrew - P Johnson | vs Division I | 2 | 9.0 | 3.00 | 5.0 | 1.0 |
| Andrew Johnson | At home | 5 | 14.0 | 0.64 | 11.6 | 1.9 |
| Andrew Johnson | In relief | 8 | 21.2 | 1.25 | 10.4 | 2.1 |
| Andrew Johnson | On the road | 3 | 7.2 | 2.35 | 8.2 | 2.3 |
| Andrew Johnson | vs Division I | 8 | 21.2 | 1.25 | 10.4 | 2.1 |
| Ben Cushnie | At home | 2 | 3.0 | 0.00 | 6.0 | 0.0 |
| Ben Cushnie | In relief | 4 | 5.2 | 1.59 | 6.4 | 4.8 |
| Ben Cushnie | On the road | 2 | 2.2 | 3.38 | 6.8 | 10.1 |
| Ben Cushnie | vs Division I | 4 | 5.2 | 1.59 | 6.4 | 4.8 |
| Chase - P Herrell | In relief | 2 | 5.1 | 0.00 | 5.1 | 1.7 |
| Chase - P Herrell | On the road | 2 | 5.1 | 0.00 | 5.1 | 1.7 |
| Chase - P Herrell | vs Division I | 2 | 5.1 | 0.00 | 5.1 | 1.7 |
| Chase Herrell | As starter | 1 | 2.0 | 9.00 | 4.5 | 9.0 |
| Chase Herrell | At home | 3 | 5.0 | 5.40 | 7.2 | 7.2 |
| Chase Herrell | In relief | 4 | 7.1 | 3.68 | 8.6 | 4.9 |
| Chase Herrell | On the road | 2 | 4.1 | 4.15 | 8.3 | 4.2 |
| Chase Herrell | vs Division I | 5 | 9.1 | 4.82 | 7.7 | 5.8 |
| Diego - P Velazquez | As starter | 1 | 3.1 | 5.40 | 8.1 | 8.1 |
| Diego - P Velazquez | On the road | 1 | 3.1 | 5.40 | 8.1 | 8.1 |
| Diego - P Velazquez | vs Division I | 1 | 3.1 | 5.40 | 8.1 | 8.1 |
| Diego Velazquez | As starter | 3 | 10.2 | 4.22 | 7.6 | 0.8 |
| Diego Velazquez | At home | 2 | 9.0 | 1.00 | 9.0 | 0.0 |
| Diego Velazquez | In relief | 1 | 3.0 | 0.00 | 9.0 | 0.0 |
| Diego Velazquez | On the road | 2 | 4.2 | 7.71 | 5.8 | 1.9 |
| Diego Velazquez | vs Division I | 4 | 13.2 | 3.29 | 7.9 | 0.7 |
| Gavin Lauridsen | As starter | 1 | 2.0 | 13.50 | 0.0 | 4.5 |
| Gavin Lauridsen | At home | 4 | 9.0 | 5.00 | 8.0 | 2.0 |
| Gavin Lauridsen | In relief | 5 | 12.1 | 2.19 | 8.0 | 1.5 |
| Gavin Lauridsen | On the road | 2 | 5.1 | 1.69 | 5.1 | 1.7 |
| Gavin Lauridsen | vs Division I | 6 | 14.1 | 3.77 | 6.9 | 1.9 |
| Grant - P Govel | As starter | 2 | 9.2 | 3.72 | 9.3 | 3.7 |
| Grant - P Govel | At home | 1 | 5.2 | 4.76 | 9.5 | 3.2 |
| Grant - P Govel | On the road | 1 | 4.0 | 2.25 | 9.0 | 4.5 |
| Grant - P Govel | vs Division I | 2 | 9.2 | 3.72 | 9.3 | 3.7 |
| Grant Govel | As starter | 5 | 29.2 | 2.43 | 7.9 | 0.9 |
| Grant Govel | At home | 3 | 21.0 | 1.29 | 8.6 | 0.4 |
| Grant Govel | On the road | 2 | 8.2 | 5.19 | 6.2 | 2.1 |
| Grant Govel | vs Division I | 5 | 29.2 | 2.43 | 7.9 | 0.9 |
| Mason - P Edwards | As starter | 1 | 4.1 | 10.38 | 8.3 | 8.3 |
| Mason - P Edwards | On the road | 1 | 4.1 | 10.38 | 8.3 | 8.3 |
| Mason - P Edwards | vs Division I | 1 | 4.1 | 10.38 | 8.3 | 8.3 |
| Mason Edwards | As starter | 4 | 23.0 | 0.39 | 16.0 | 3.1 |
| Mason Edwards | At home | 3 | 17.0 | 0.53 | 15.4 | 2.6 |
| Mason Edwards | On the road | 1 | 6.0 | 0.00 | 18.0 | 4.5 |
| Mason Edwards | vs Division I | 4 | 23.0 | 0.39 | 16.0 | 3.1 |
| Sax - P Matson | At home | 1 | 1.0 | 0.00 | 9.0 | 0.0 |
| Sax - P Matson | In relief | 3 | 5.0 | 0.00 | 9.0 | 1.8 |
| Sax - P Matson | On the road | 2 | 4.0 | 0.00 | 9.0 | 2.2 |
| Sax - P Matson | vs Division I | 3 | 5.0 | 0.00 | 9.0 | 1.8 |
| Sax Matson | At home | 3 | 3.0 | 3.00 | 6.0 | 9.0 |
| Sax Matson | In relief | 5 | 7.1 | 2.45 | 4.9 | 3.7 |
| Sax Matson | On the road | 2 | 4.1 | 2.08 | 4.2 | 0.0 |
| Sax Matson | vs Division I | 5 | 7.1 | 2.45 | 4.9 | 3.7 |
Splits are built from box-score appearances rather than from
play-by-play. ESPN college play-by-play does not reliably identify which
pitcher is on the mound for a given at-bat, so a per-pitcher
batter-level split would be guesswork. Anything that needs the man on
the mound is reported at staff level on the Spray & Splits tab and
labelled that way.
Batted Ball & Situational
Spray tendencies and splits
What this is. Every line below is parsed out of the
play-by-play text for 20 games. Direction is field direction,
not pull or opposite field: ESPN does not publish batting handedness for
college players, so pull side is not knowable and is not guessed at. Gap
balls are assigned to the half of the field they were hit toward. The
share of plays that could not be parsed is reported at the bottom of
this tab rather than quietly dropped.
Hitter spray profile
No batted balls could be parsed from the play-by-play.
Hitter situational splits
No plate appearances could be attributed from the play-by-play.
Team situational — offense
| Split | PA | H | BB | K | On-base% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plate appearances | 860 | 221 | 100 | 175 | 40.2% | 20.3% |
| Runners in scoring position | 254 | 66 | 32 | 57 | 41.3% | 22.4% |
| Bases empty / no RISP | 606 | 155 | 68 | 118 | 39.8% | 19.5% |
| Leading off an inning | 175 | 50 | 16 | 32 | 40.0% | 18.3% |
| First look (1st PA of game) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| Third look or later | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
| Innings 1-3 | 323 | 96 | 41 | 64 | 44.0% | 19.8% |
| Innings 4-6 | 275 | 62 | 28 | 53 | 36.7% | 19.3% |
| Innings 7+ | 262 | 63 | 31 | 58 | 39.3% | 22.1% |
| At home | 499 | 139 | 63 | 97 | 43.5% | 19.4% |
| On the road | 361 | 82 | 37 | 78 | 35.7% | 21.6% |
Team situational — pitching staff
| Split | PA faced | H allowed | BB issued | K | On-base% allowed | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All plate appearances | 733 | 135 | 59 | 185 | 27.8% | 25.2% |
| Runners in scoring position | 136 | 18 | 15 | 39 | 24.3% | 28.7% |
| Bases empty / no RISP | 597 | 117 | 44 | 146 | 28.6% | 24.5% |
| Leading off an inning | 182 | 34 | 10 | 38 | 26.4% | 20.9% |
| First look (1st PA of game) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Third look or later | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Innings 1-3 | 242 | 43 | 17 | 66 | 26.9% | 27.3% |
| Innings 4-6 | 251 | 52 | 24 | 69 | 30.7% | 27.5% |
| Innings 7+ | 240 | 40 | 18 | 50 | 25.8% | 20.8% |
| At home | 413 | 72 | 28 | 114 | 25.2% | 27.6% |
| On the road | 320 | 63 | 31 | 71 | 31.2% | 22.2% |
Staff level, not per pitcher - see the note on the Pitching tab. This is
how the whole staff has handled each situation across 20 games.
Running game
| Metric | Value | PerGame |
|---|---|---|
| Stolen bases | 21 | 1.05 |
| Caught stealing | 5 | 0.25 |
| Steal attempts | 26 | 1.30 |
| Steal success rate | 81% | |
| Picked off | 5 | 0.25 |
| Bunt attempts | 19 | 0.95 |
| Sacrifice bunts | 6 | 0.30 |
No individual runner could be attributed.
Attribution is to the player named at the start of the play only. The
previous build credited every roster name that appeared anywhere in the
sentence, which handed steal attempts to the catcher and shortstop on
any caught-stealing play.
Parse coverage
| Metric | Value | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Plays parsed | 5994 | after de-duplication |
| Plate appearances identified | 1593 | text matched a plate-appearance result |
| PA attributed to a named batter | 0% | leading-name match against the box-score roster |
| Balls in play with a resolved direction | 85% | left / center / right, from the play text |
| Balls in play with a resolved type | 68% | GB / LD / FB / PU / HR |
These figures govern how much weight to put on this tab. A direction or
type share well under 100% means the play text was less descriptive in
those games, not that the hitter did something unusual.
Context
National profile and scoring shape
Division I relative profile
Win Percentage74.1%
96th percentile · 8 of 163 D-I teams
Runs / Game6.78
64th percentile · 60 of 163 D-I teams
Run Prevention3.79 RA/G
88th percentile · 20 of 163 D-I teams
Run Differential / Game+2.98
94th percentile · 11 of 163 D-I teams
Ranks are against the 163 teams in the ESPN Division I standings feed
and are not adjusted for strength of schedule. A team
that has played a soft schedule will grade high here. Use the rank as
context, not as an evaluation.
Recent form
| Window | Record | Win % | R/G | RA/G | RD/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 47-16 | 73.4% | 7.06 | 3.73 | +3.33 |
| Last 10 | 6-4 | 60.0% | 8.10 | 3.70 | +4.40 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 80.0% | 11.80 | 3.80 | +8.00 |
| vs Division I | 47-16 | 73.4% | 7.06 | 3.73 | +3.33 |
Scoring by inning
33
1
15
2
22
3
14
4
13
5
14
6
18
7
16
8
2
9
Runs scored by inning across 20 games with play-by-play
Early runs
70
47% of parsed runs
Innings 1-3
Middle runs
41
28% of parsed runs
Innings 4-6
Late runs
37
25% of parsed runs
Innings 7+
One-run games
6-6
Full season
ESPN schedule
Conference record
—
Full season
ESPN schedule
Automated flags
STRONG RUN PREVENTION
Runs allowed ranks in the 88th percentile nationally (20 of 163 D-I
teams).
COMPLETE TEAM PROFILE
Run differential per game ranks in the 94th percentile nationally (11 of
163 D-I teams).
POWER THREAT
2.05 home runs per game across the last 20 games.
FREE-BASE PRESSURE
6.2 walks plus hit-by-pitches per game across the last 20 games.
ACTIVE RUNNING GAME
1.15 stolen bases per game across the last 20 games.
Percentile-based flags are measured against the national field.
Rate-based flags (power, free bases, running game, bunts, strikeouts)
fire on fixed scouting thresholds set in the THRESHOLDS block at the top
of the source file - they are conventions, not league percentiles, and
are labelled that way on purpose.
Series Preparation
Game plan
Pitcher Plan
Where their offense is strong
- Power is real: 2.05 HR per game across the last 20 games.
- They reach without the ball in play: 6.2 BB + HBP per game across the last 20 games.
- Active running game: 1.15 stolen bases per game.
How we mitigate it
- With traffic on, prioritize damage prevention over the punchout. Miss down, not over the middle.
- Win strike one. Their on-base profile is built on counts, not on barrels.
- Vary looks and hold times with the identified runners on base; get the catcher a chance.
Top three hitters
Not enough qualified hitters in the window to rank.
Hitter Plan
What their pitching does well
- Run prevention grades in the 88th percentile nationally.
- The staff misses bats: 9.2 K/9 across the last 20 games.
- They limit walks: 2.9 BB/9 across the last 20 games.
Where we can attack
- 6 relief arms are carrying elevated recent workload.
How we take advantage
- Scoring chances will be scarce. Do not give away outs once we create traffic.
- Shrink the zone with two strikes and make them throw a competitive finish pitch.
- Make the starter work. Getting into the middle-relief portion of this staff early is worth a plan of its own.
Top three pitchers
Sax - P Matson — 0.00 ERA · 9.0 K/9 · 1.8 BB/9
Chase - P Herrell — 0.00 ERA · 5.1 K/9 · 1.7 BB/9
Mason Edwards — 0.39 ERA · 16.0 K/9 · 3.1 BB/9
Plan language is generated from the tables in this report. Where the
data did not support a point, the plan says so rather than filling the
space. Every claim above traces to a number on another tab.
Trust
Where every number came from
OK
Schedule parsed
64 completed games, 0 scheduled ahead.
OK
Opponent division
Every completed opponent appears in the ESPN Division I team index.
OK
Box-score coverage
20 of 20 requested games returned a player box score.
OK
Play-by-play coverage
20 of 20 requested games returned play-by-play.
NOTE
Player name keys unique
11 duplicate normalized names; the first was kept. Play-by-play
attribution for those players may be shared.
OK
NCAA official stats
Matched to ‘A&M-Corpus Christi’. 41 hitters and 22 pitchers loaded.
OK
ESPN vs NCAA slash lines
0 hitters matched by name (18 unmatched). 0 differ by more than 30
points on at least one rate stat. The report uses the NCAA figure where
the two disagree.
POOR
Play-by-play vs box score
Runs rebuilt from the play text match the final score in 40% of 20
games. Everything on the Spray & Splits tab depends on this parse.
OK
National baseline
Compared against 163 teams in the ESPN Division I standings feed.
Game-by-game coverage
| Date | Opponent | Box score | Play-by-play | Player rows | Play rows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 02 | TA&M | Yes | Yes | 28 | 574 |
| Jun 01 | TA&M | Yes | Yes | 31 | 605 |
| May 31 | TXST | Yes | Yes | 38 | 708 |
| May 30 | LAM | Yes | Yes | 44 | 748 |
| May 30 | TXST | Yes | Yes | 31 | 643 |
| May 23 | UCLA | Yes | Yes | 32 | 323 |
| May 22 | MSU | Yes | Yes | 30 | 299 |
| May 16 | ORE | Yes | Yes | 34 | 429 |
| May 16 | ORE | Yes | Yes | 30 | 265 |
| May 15 | ORE | Yes | Yes | 30 | 323 |
| May 09 | NEV | Yes | Yes | 29 | 293 |
| May 09 | NEV | Yes | Yes | 27 | 281 |
| May 08 | NEV | Yes | Yes | 27 | 289 |
| May 06 | CSUF | Yes | Yes | 37 | 350 |
| May 03 | RUTG | Yes | Yes | 28 | 276 |
| May 02 | RUTG | Yes | Yes | 26 | 237 |
| May 02 | RUTG | Yes | Yes | 29 | 259 |
| Apr 29 | UCI | Yes | Yes | 32 | 257 |
| Apr 26 | PUR | Yes | Yes | 29 | 290 |
| Apr 25 | PUR | Yes | Yes | 27 | 253 |
The report asked ESPN for 20 games and received box scores for 20 and
play-by-play for 20. Every window label elsewhere in this report uses
the number received, never the number requested. If a game shows
MISSING, re-knit with REFRESH_DATA <- TRUE to try it again.
Source and retrieval log
| Source | Status | Items | Oldest retrieved | Newest retrieved |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESPN | cached | 3 | Aug 31 21:28 | Aug 31 21:31 |
| ESPN | fresh | 21 | Aug 31 21:38 | Aug 31 21:38 |
| NCAA | cached | 1 | Aug 31 21:36 | Aug 31 21:36 |
| NCAA | fresh | 2 | Aug 31 21:38 | Aug 31 21:39 |
Cached rows were read from the cache/ folder and carry the timestamp of
when they were originally downloaded, not of this render. That is the
point of showing it: a report built entirely from three-week-old cache
should look different from a fresh one.
ESPN vs NCAA agreement
No cross-source comparison was possible for this render - either the
NCAA source was unavailable or no hitters matched by name across the two
sources. Season rate stats in this report therefore rest on a single
source.
Play-by-play consistency
Runs rebuilt from the play text match the final score in 8 of 20 games.
This is the single best test of whether the spray and situational tables
can be trusted: if the parser cannot recover the score, it is missing
events.
| Date | Opponent | Runs in box score | Runs parsed from text |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25 | PUR | 6 | 4 |
| Apr 26 | PUR | 11 | 8 |
| May 02 | RUTG | 5 | 3 |
| May 02 | RUTG | 11 | 9 |
| May 03 | RUTG | 12 | 10 |
| May 06 | CSUF | 13 | 9 |
| May 08 | NEV | 8 | 6 |
| May 09 | NEV | 11 | 10 |
| May 09 | NEV | 12 | 9 |
| May 16 | ORE | 5 | 3 |
| May 22 | MSU | 7 | 5 |
| May 31 | TXST | 15 | 17 |
Method and limitations
Division of sources. Season rate stats come from
stats.ncaa.org and are recomputed from the counting stats. Recent-window
counting stats come from ESPN game box scores. Spray, situational and
baserunning tendencies come from ESPN play-by-play text. No column mixes
two of these.
What this report cannot do. There is no batting or
throwing handedness in the public college feeds, so there are no platoon
splits and no pull/oppo - only field direction. ESPN college
play-by-play does not reliably name the pitcher on the mound, so there
are no per-pitcher batter-level splits; that material is reported at
staff level. ESPN game box scores omit hit-by-pitch, sacrifice flies,
doubles and triples, so a window slash line cannot be rebuilt from them
and is not shown. National percentiles are unadjusted for strength of
schedule. Runners-in-scoring-position state is reconstructed from text
and is deliberately conservative.
Reproducing this render. baseballr 2.0.0 · R 4.5.0 ·
team query “USC” resolved to USC Trojans (ESPN id 68), NCAA
“A&M-Corpus Christi” · detail window 20 games requested.